Haka v SJK
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Sunday 2nd October – 2:00PM
The race for a bronze medal remains on for Haka after a tough win against Inter on Wednesday evening, Lee Erwin’s fifteenth goal of 2022 earning three points, courtesy of a hefty deflection. Teemu Tainio has enjoyed his side’s progress this year but will be planning already for life after their flying Scotsman who will leave at the end of the year. Being on the front foot is an unusual period after years of underachieving and the lure of Europe helps but the pressure is now on. Against SJK, they’ll get the lions share of possession – if they can get a bit more out of Stavros Zarakostas, he’ll find plenty of room down the SJK wings.
In beating KuPS in midweek, SJK rode their luck and are unlikely to get such joys in Valkeakoski. Coach Joaquin Gomez has managed to get a tune out of on-loan midfielder Mosa Yaghoubi and has also got three goals out of Jake Jervis in the last two games. Their target is also Europe and while an automatic place is out of reach, keeping momentum is vital. Away form however has been poor against the top six and it’s hard to see much change here against a resolute Haka with a lethal striker.
This game has a lot riding on it for both sides and despite being a season for surprise results, the form book only has one outcome.
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Prediction: Haka to Win, 2.05 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
AC Oulu v Lahti
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Sunday 2nd October – 2:00PM KO
What looked like a comfortable win in Mariehamn on Wednesday became a fright, as Oulu led 0-3 with fifteen minutes remaining, but conceding two quick strikes came it was a nervy ending before winning 2-4. Oulu have scored 43 goals now this season and will hope to add to that again on Sunday. A brace from Michael Lopez were his first in six weeks and take him to double figures for the year, his first was a beauty from outside the box. What coach Ricardo Duarte has done with this squad deserves a lot of credit and they will look to reach the top half next season, especially if they can keep some of their attacking talent. The defence is porous and prone to indiscipline but will not face too many challenges from this Lahti team.
In surrendering meekly to VPS, Lahti are also condemned to the relegation play-off against a side from the second tier and on current form might not be considered favourites. This is a rare chance for them to play with no suspensions and will welcome back tough midfielder Eduards Emsis after his two matches for Latvia ruled him out of the defeat. Lahti have not scored in six matches now, conceding twelve in the process. Anything but an Oulu win here will be a surprise. The change of manager in mid-season has done nothing to halt the downward trajectory of the side and other than a glut of new signings and a tendency to throw in some kids, little has been achieved.
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Prediction: AC Oulu to Win, 1.65 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
VPS v HIFK
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Sunday 2nd October – 2:00PM KO
VPS confirmed their 2023 Veikkausliiga position this week with a comfortable 0-2 victory away to Lahti in a match where they barely left second gear. Two first half goals allowed them to coast past the second worst team in the league. With the pressure off, they now welcome the absolute worst team in the division and can hopefully regain some of the attacking freedom they showed earlier in the season. Tete Yengi hasn’t scored since July and will be heading back to Ipswich soon and will see this as the best way to get back on the horse. Rebuilding for next season can start now and VPS have already been extending contracts, some players will need to sing for their supper.
The repeat of this fixture ended 1-1 five weeks ago in a surprising turn, Michael Bakare’s impressive strike the highlight of his HIFK career so far. With only one win all season, the end can’t come soon enough – a 1-5 loss to Ilves on Wednesday was another example of the lack of leadership and zest missing all season. Conceding after six minutes, three had gone in before Roman Eremenko scored with a smart finish, before the second half brought more pain. Jani Backman and Jukka Halme will be retiring at the end of the season, ensuring the rebuilding process is a huge one wherever HIFK end up after relegation.
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Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals, 1.47 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
KuPS v Honka
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Sunday 2nd October – 2:00PM KO
What could have been a title decider a month or so ago is more of a title eliminator – KuPS losing timidly to SJK was followed by Honka coming from behind to beat HJK and keep the race alive for a little longer at least. KuPS could narrow the gap to two points with a win, but haven’t beaten a top six side at home since May.
The form of KuPS since the summer has been that of mid-table mediocrity rather than challengers. At SJK, they performed poorly and without much purpose, yet only lost due to a comical own goal, a heavy deflection and the Seinajoki woodwork remaining strong. Coach Simo Valakari was critical in his appraisal of the side, making a triple substitution at half time and lamenting the absence of key threat Janis Ikaunieks due to international duty. This fixture in August was a game of two halves, KuPS dominating the first half before retreating on a 1-0 lead and allowing Honka free rein to attack.
A run of one point from nine derailed Honka’s tilt at the title at the end of the regular season and the trophy is now beyond them, but they still have huge influence. Beating HJK on Thursday was a statement of intent that they are still dangerous. They still need points to guarantee a Conference League place next season and Agon Sadiku scored again to take his tally to eleven for the season. His pace and raw talent will test a shaken KuPS defence in the way they did in their last meeting.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score, 1.80 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
HJK v Inter
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Sunday 2nd October – 4:30PM KO
The leaders were coasting at Honka on Thursday, a header from Arttu Hoskonen gave them the lead and the tactics seemed to be perfectly poised to resist the known strengths of their opponents. But fatigue and complacency set in, allowing their opponents to come back and win 3-1 in a match marred with allegations of racial chants. Jukka Raitala and Najib Boujellab miss this game through suspension and having to manage tired players ahead of a big week in the Europa League gives Toni Koskela a massive challenge. The impending sale of Casper Terho leaves an opening for the vast reserves of youth but they need the old guard to step in and fight.
Rudderless Inter are drifting towards the end of the season and seem as though they’d rather not have to face the extended European play-offs. Incoming coach Jarkko Wiss will have his work cut out next year to turn this side into contenders. It’s likely that several of the squad will leave and those selected for this game will face a wounded champion likely to attack from the start. Inter remain rooted at the bottom of the Championship group and the gulf is already large. Again looking to Petteri Forsell for inspiration is a noble but toothless task when there is little quality to make the most of his guile.
HJK’s squad depth and quality will be more than enough for Inter and should restore their cushion ahead of their final two domestic matches.
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Prediction: HJK to Win, 1.40 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
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