Dallas Goedert, Anytime Touchdown

Since Goedert returned from injury he has been on an absolute tear with games of 7/85, 4/56, 4/47, and 4/55. He is Hurts’ safety blanket, and even in some extremely low-volume games he’s still looked good. The Chiefs have blitzed at the 5th-highest rate (35.1%), and I expect defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to continue to bring the heat against Jalen Hurts.

He’s struggled to diagnose blitzes at the time, and I expect the Eagles to cook up plenty of short passes to get the ball out quickly. Goedert is highly involved in the short-passing game and benefits the most from that. The Chiefs have allowed the most yards to tight ends this season at 1,191 (66 yards per game).

He has also dominated in the red zone, he surprisingly has the highest red zone target share (24.4%) of any Eagles receiver. While they will likely be a run-first team in those situations, teams will stack the box and leave 1v1 opportunities for the receivers.

I think even in a lower-scoring game, we should still see enough red zone opportunities to get a couple of passing attempts. Goedert is also one of the few tight ends who has enough YAC ability to score both inside and outside the red zone.

Patrick Mahomes, 275+ Passing Yards

Beyond the fact that Mahomes is the best quarterback on the planet, the Chiefs really don’t have much of a choice but to pass regardless of the game script. Kareem Hunt has been serviceable this season, but they get a tough matchup and Andy Reid is smart enough to put the ball in his superstar’s hands.

Philly finished the regular season ranked 2nd in PFF run defence while allowing the 2nd-lowest EPA per rush, and the Eagles also allowed the 4th-lowest yards per carry to opposing running backs this season. With tougher conditions on the ground, I’m expecting increased passing volume that I don’t think is being priced in enough here.

I get the Eagles’ defence may be scary to bet against on paper, but the Eagles played the 3rd-easiest strength of schedule per PFF. We saw Washington look solid in the passing game last week before they absolutely fell apart, and Matthew Stafford passed for 324 yards in the snow against Philly.

In a game with even better conditions and a better quarterback, I expect Mahomes to do exactly what he does best and pass all over the Eagles’ defence. We saw him do it in one Super Bowl, and I think we see him do it again.

Kansas City Chiefs to Win

While I think the Eagles are an incredibly talented team, when I get a chance to take Patrick Mahomes at a reasonable money line price I’m going to do it. This Chiefs team absolutely destroyed in the regular season despite a fairly simplistic run-heavy game plan, but things get elevated to the next level when the lights are brightest.

This team constantly rises to the next level and Mahomes is proven a the Super Bowl level, I’ll take my chances against Jalen Hurts 10/10 times. Even though they were the favourites, I took them in our play off preview article to win the Super Bowl, and we are doubling down now.

While the Eagles are a fantastic defence that has given some of the most talented players in the league fits, I think Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are built to destroy a team like that.

The Fangio defence is built on keeping everything in front of the safeties and limiting explosive plays, and the Eagles do this extremely well. The problem is that the Chiefs have been the most efficient offence in football while generating explosive plays at a below-average rate.

The Eagles dare you to check the ball down and take small gains, and the Chiefs are perfectly comfortable attempting more short passes than anyone in the league. They will dare you to shoot yourself in the foot, and Mahomes has proven that he won’t do that in the biggest moments.

We’ve had alot of success betting on Xavier Worthy in the second half of the season, and I think we can once again in the Super Bowl. He ended the season with 6+ receptions in 4 of his last 5 games, establishing himself as the lead option on a stacked Chiefs roster averaging over 80% of snaps to end the season.

I expect the Eagles to really focus in on Travis Kelce, and with the Eagles forcing tons of quick passing, Xavier Worthy should be a guy who sees increased volume.

The Eagles are a heavy zone coverage defence, and they like to keep everything in front of them. Xavier Worthy has an insanely low 2.4 average depth of target which means he has extremely high percentage targets to convert on. Since Hollywood Brown rejoined the team, Worthy is averaging over 2 screen passes per game, giving him an incredibly safe baseline.

Not only is he leading all receivers in routes with the safest role on the team, but he also gets a bunch of short-yardage passes making him an ideal target for receptions. He’s looked better every week and you can really see the trust with Mahomes.

It’s also positive to see the coaching staff echo these same sentiments, “The kid every week has just gotten better and better,” Reid said. “He’s really put together a nice half of the season, the second half here, not that he didn’t have good plays in the first half, but you could see he was learning in the first half”.

The rookie receiver last played in the Caesars Superdome in the CFP Semifinal against the Washington Huskies on Jan. 1, 2024, in which his Texas Longhorns lost 37-31. When asked about it, Worthy said that he was excited to get redemption in the biggest game of his life.

The second half of the season has been about proving people wrong for Worthy, and I think he can do it one more time in the biggest game of the season.