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Swansea v Cardiff
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Kick Off: Sunday 25th August at 15:00
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Competition: Championship
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Football
The South Wales derby is one of the fiercer rivalries in this season’s Championship, and always produces an intense clash well worth tuning in for.
Until the 1950s these two sides were friendly rivals, with some fans watching both clubs. That all changed in 1955 when Cardiff was announced as the capital city of Wales and the relationship deteriorated. Then in the 1970s things took another turn for the worse when John Toshack, an ex-player of Cardiff took over as manager of Swansea and led them from the old Fourth Division to the First Division.
Now visiting fans can only attend if they are on one of the clubs’ official buses that transport supporters directly from their own ground to that of their rivals to keep supporters apart before and after the match. It’s an intense fixture and as is quite often the case in local derbies, we see recent form go out the window.
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Swansea v Cardiff Best Bets
Swansea are currently 1.93 to win the match, the lowest odds either side has been to win this fixture going back to 2019. We are unsure if we want to get behind the Swans at that price.
Cardiff have been a little unfortunate so far this season. They struggle to create opportunities but are tight defensively despite conceding seven from just 2.61 xGA. In contrast, the Swans have conceded only once from an xGA of 3.82.
Seven of the last 10 head-to-head games have seen fewer than three goals, so under 2.5 goals, available at 1.90 with Paddy Power is a solid option here. The Swans restricted Middlesbrough to just one goal and although they beat Preston 3-0, the Lilywhites had just sacked their manager, and the team were going through the motions waiting for the new manager to be installed.
The Bluebirds have failed to score this season and last season on the road they averaged just 1.08 goals per game with a xG 0.81 with only three sides having fewer shots in the box.
The Swans at home last term saw their fixtures average a total of 2.35 goals with a combined xG of 2.25 and with 12 of 23 games only having one team scoring. Cardiff will be desperate to not lose another game, and we may see them being a little more conservative with their approach to the game. Local derbies are tight affairs with players affected by the atmosphere created by the crowd.
The referee for this game is Oliver Langford. He oversaw 31 games last season and averaged just 3.29 in the Championship. He did take charge of Leeds v Portsmouth on the opening weekend and dished out six cards. Last season he started with a high number of cards per match with an average of 4.67 across his opening seven cards and given his first appointment this season, we are hoping that history repeats itself. Over 3.5 match cards at 1.60 looks like the smart play here.
Swansea have collected four and one cards with their matches averaging 4.5 cards. Cardiff have collected only one card so far, but their matches have averaged 2.5 cards. Last term the Bluebirds averaged 2.2 cards on the road, collecting at least one card in 21 of their 23 away fixtures.
The importance of the game to both sets of fans and the fact that Cardiff can’t afford to start the season with three defeats from their opening three games indicates that we should see some cards. We are going to back Oliver Langford to continue his form from the start of last season and take both sides over 0.5 cards, over 3.5 match cards and under 4.5 match goals – this currently pays 1.86 with bet365.
📂 Swansea v Cardiff Cheat Sheet
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We also have a variety of useful guides, including this one on xG in football, helping you level up your research skills to become a better punter.
📊 Swansea Form and Stats
The Swans lost their opening game away at Middlesbrough 1-0 but have bounced back by winning their EFL Cup game 3-1 over Gillingham and then followed this up with a 3-0 win at home to Preston. Pre-season was a set of mixed results with W1-D1-L1.
Early days, but we have Swansea in seventh on expected points (xPts) and they have generated the fourth-highest expected goals (xG) with 3.60. Manager Luke Williams will demand his side play football and it’s not a surprise to see that they have the fourth-highest number of touches of the ball in the opposition penalty and the second-most crosses, mainly from winger Ronald. Their attacking threat is a struggle with only five sides to have fewer shots.
No player has been fouled more per 90 than Swansea’s Ollie Cooper with Goncalo Franco sitting in fifth. Last season they won just seven home games from their last 20.
📊 Cardiff Form and Stats
The Bluebirds have struggled since the start of the season. They went down 2-0 at home on the opening day to Sunderland and then got hammered 5-0 away at Burnley.
Despite losing both games they were a little unfortunate. They lost the xG battle with Sunderland 1.8 vs 1.02 and then narrowly lost by 0.81 vs 0.38 against Burnley, the Clarets only had four shots on target.
Only four sides have conceded fewer shots or have a higher expected goal against (xGA) so despite the seven conceded, they have been unfortunate. However, at the other end, only four sides touch the ball less in the opposition box than City.
It’s now just three wins from their last 11 Championship matches. Last season their underlying performance levels were a concern. Our data had them 20th for xPts and 22nd for xG ratio despite a finish of 12th.
⚔️ Swansea v Cardiff Head-to-Head
These two sides have met 110 times across various competitions with Cardiff winning 46, Swansea 43 and 28 draws. There is no doubt the Swans have enjoyed more success since the 1990s with Cardiff dominated before that.
In league contests between the two clubs, the Swans have won 28 with 17 draws, meaning they hold the upper hand. More recently The Swans have a good record against their Welsh neighbours winning seven of the last nine games, only tasting defeat twice.
The Swans have scored at least two goals in the last games at the Swansea.Com Stadium, keeping four clean sheets. The fixture averaged 4.6 cards with both sides collecting at least one card each in eight of the last 10. Five of these 10 games have seen at least six cards with only one having two or fewer cards. There have only been two red cards across the last 10 fixtures.
* We recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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