If this match had been played a few weeks ago then this preview and recommendation would’ve been completely different.

Swansea find themselves in a really tricky position at the moment. There is clearly a lot of dissatisfaction within the fanbase about the way that the club is being run. The lack of January transfer activity has seen this come to the boil in recent weeks, and Russell Martin is cutting a more and fore forlorn figure in his press conferences.

Most concerningly, the off-field feeling appears to be translating into actions on the pitch. Performances have been lacking in purpose and energy and results have dropped off to an extent where the Swans have picked up only 7 points in 8 matches since the turn of the year. Shorten that period to February alone and Swansea have conceded the highest xGA in the entire division, which means that they have conceded the highest quality of chances to their opponents.

Meanwhile, Rotherham are on a completely different trajectory. Before January, Matt Taylor’s side looked to be on a one-way slide into League One. However, some canny recruitment in January has added some quality in some key positions and now the Millers look like a different team. Jordan Hugill has given them a platform to build from at the top of the pitch, Tarique Fosu is a constant threat with his pace, Conor Coventry keeps the ball moving and protects the base of the midfield and Leo Hjelde has added a balance to the team from left-back.

The gameplan isn’t always clear still, but there is energy and physicality in the side and the win over Sunderland last week will have given the players a great deal of optimism and confidence that will be taken into this match.

If one was taking into account long term data, then Swansea probably deserve their price as short-priced favourites. However, the data over the most recent matches agrees with the eye test in that Swansea lost the xG battle, as well as the matches, against Birmingham and, decisively, against Stoke at home. Whereas, although Rotherham’s away form has been poor, they have kept the matches against Watford, Blackpool, and Reading very tight on xG and have probably been unlucky to end up with 2 draws and a loss from that run.

Even so, the draws would’ve been enough to seen the double chance land for the away side. That is the first recommendation for this bet builder, to side with Rotherham in the double chance market.

If the match does play out that Rotherham have their fair share of the scoreline, either getting ahead or holding the Swans then the pattern of the match should be pretty set.

Swansea will control the vast majority of possession and territory with Rotherham looking to spring directly by either hitting Hugill and building from there or using the pace and power of Fosu and Ogbene to carry them up the pitch and score on transition.

Looking at the history of the teams over the course of the season, these tactics often result in very different outcomes in terms of corners that the teams win. Rotherham win the lowest number of corners in the division with an average of 3.45 per match. Recently they have drawn a couple of blanks when it comes to corners won as well.

Swansea, meanwhile, boast one of the division’s highest corners won numbers at 5.42 per match. Though the line for the corner match bet is short, it is worth adding to the bet here because it is a confident stance given how we believe the match will play out.

To boost the price a little it is worth adding Under 4.5 corners for Rotherham. The average has already been stated and this would usually be a match in which one would expect to gain fewer corners than usual as the opposition.

Since the re-jigging of the team by Matt Taylor and the recruitment team it seems as though there has been a bit of a change to the role that Oli Rathbone plays in the side.

With either Hakeem Odoffin or Conor Coventry in central midfield alongside him, the former Rochdale man has been given more licence to roam forward and looks to be under instruction to get more shots off.

Rathbone has done this in each of the last seven matches, having been fairly sporadic beforehand. Indeed he has hit two shots or more in five of the last seven matches, including away fixtures at Blackpool and Watford. Rathbone has also played the full 90 in most matches that he has started, giving us a fair crack at getting the full element of time to register the shots and making the odds fair.

Rathbone wearing the captain’s armband also appears to have added more to his game in that he can build upon the passion that he has to carry the team forward all through the match.

The final addition to the bet builder is slightly reliant upon team news. Grant Hall was injured against Sunderland and looks to be out for a while. Lee Peltier has been playing at right-back recently but it is suggested that he may be moved centrally in Hall’s absence to partner Cameron Humphreys.

If that is the case then Wes Harding could be brought into the right-back slot. It is the right-back position that I am looking to get against here because Swansea left-wing-back Ryan Manning is going to be a key player in this match.

The majority of Swansea’s play and chances come down the left side and Ryan Manning has been Swans’ best player this season. Looking into the stats Manning has drawn by far the most fouls in the Swansea side over the last 10 matches and whoever his direct opponent is feels like a good bet to make at least one foul in this match.

If that is Harding then he is a good price to do so, even if it is Peltier I would be happy to add this to the bet builder. However, Harding is the recommendation.