In this article…
Newcastle United v Brighton
Premier League
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Kick Off: 20:00
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Watch: Sky Sports Main Event
Newcastle United v Brighton Cheat Sheet
The only Premier League midweek fixture of the week sees Brighton travel to St James’ Park on Thursday evening in a hugely important battle in the race for European football for both sides. The reverse fixture was in the second week of the season and ended in a 0-0 draw where Newcastle were fortunate given that they had just four shots in the whole game and Nick Pope was awarded man of the match.
These two sides have met 31 times, with 11 of those games being in the Premier League since the start of the 2017/18 season. Newcastle have won just one of those 11 games, this exact fixture last season, and have lost by an aggregate scoreline of 11-4 in those games. However, this is a very different Toon side and they will be hoping for a victory here, coming in as 19/20 favourites.
Magpies seek to get back on track
On the back of a 2-0 defeat to Arsenal 11 days ago, Newcastle were held to a 2-2 draw at Leeds last time out and they have faltered slightly. Whilst they accumulated 2.78 expected goals, they were awarded two penalties – both scored by Callum Wilson – and they allowed Leeds to have plenty of chances. Eddie Howe will be desperate to get back on track here, and given he has just three losses to the non-“Big Six” sides in the league, there is cause for more optimism.
Newcastle are still in third, level on points with Manchester United and one ahead of Liverpool, although they have played a game fewer than the Reds. Their position in the Champions League looked very secure a month ago but seven wins in a row for Liverpool have given their fans hope. This is their most difficult game in the run-in and avoiding defeat would ensure that they will at least be playing Europa League football next season. A win would mean that they’d have to win just one of their final two games – here against Leicester and at Stamford Bridge – to guarantee their place in the top four and to be playing Champions League football next season.
Brighton the envy of English football
Brighton arrive at St James’ Park on the back of two completely different results. Having been 1/3 favourites to beat Everton ten days ago they lost 5-1 and manager Roberto de Zerbi questioned his side’s mentality. After that game, he warned that people would “see the true Brighton” and his side delivered. They travelled to the Emirates to face an Arsenal side that had lost just two home games all season and dominated the Gunners like only Manchester City have done this season, ultimately winning 3-0.
Whilst most teams have just two games left this season, Brighton have four and whilst Champions League football is still possible, it is unlikely. Winning all four would leave them on 70 points, and they’d require two of Newcastle, Manchester United and Liverpool to drop points at least once. They also have to face Manchester City and Aston Villa in two of those games. However, two wins will ensure Europa League football for the Seagulls and would be their first time ever playing in Europe.
Team news
Newcastle United team news
Sean Longstaff remains out and whilst that allows Joelinton to play in midfield, with Wilson and Isak able to play together, they have missed him in recent weeks. Emil Krafth, Jamaal Lascelles, Matt Richie and Ryan Fraser will all miss out too. Whilst Wilson and Isak can play together, there is a high chance that just one will start with Miguel Almiron, Jacob Murphy, Anthony Gordon and Allan Saint-Maximin competing for the two spots on the flanks.
Brighton team news
De Zerbi has plenty of injury issues but will be pleased that Julio Enciso, who was taken off toward with a slight knock at the end of the win at Arsenal, is available here. However, Jeremy Sarmiento, Adam Webster, Solly March, Tariq Lamptey, Adam Lallana and Jakub Moder are unavailable, while Joel Veltman is a doubt. Even if Veltman is cleared to start, he will likely be on the bench given that Moises Caicedo was highly impressive at the Emirates. Deniz Undav was impressive off the bench and may have forced his way into the starting 11.
Newcastle United v Brighton bet builder tips
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Prediction: Over 2.5 goals
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Odds: 1.60
Newcastle were defensively solid at the start of the season but they have faded in recent weeks. They have conceded at least one in each of their last eight and in 16 of their last 17. They have also scored 28 goals in their last 11 matches, with at least two in nine of those. This selection has landed in seven of their last eight.
Brighton have seen an average of 3.47 goals per game on the road this season, with this selection landing in 76% of those games, including in five of their last six and nine of their last 11 away from home. They have scored in each of their last 12 Premier League games and have accumulated at least 1.4 xGF in 11 of those and at least 2.3 xGF in 10. Defensively, they have been more vulnerable in recent weeks, conceding 2.3 xG to Everton and 2.4 xG at Nottingham Forest.
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Prediction: Over 9.5 corners
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Odds: 1.60
Newcastle games this season average 11.43 corners per game (with at least ten in 77%). In their last ten, this rises to 11.70 per game and this selection has landed in eight of those. In their last 11, they have had at least five corners in ten, at least seven in seven, and double-digits three times. In that time, their opponents have had at least two in every game and have averaged 3.91 corners per game. The reverse fixture had ten corners and this fixture last season had 11.
Brighton games this season average 10.03 corners per game and this selection has landed in 59%. On the road, they average 5.06 corners for per game and 4.18 against. In their last eight league matches away from the AMEX Stadium, they have had at least five corners in seven of them and have averaged 5.75 corners for per game. In their eight league matches against teams currently above them in the league this season, their opponents have had 40 corners at a rate of exactly five per game. Given that this is a hugely important clash for both sides and one they will be desperate to win for their European hopes, it should be an open game.
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Prediction: Alexis Mac Allister to have 1+ shots on target
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Odds: 1.73
Alexis MacAllister is having a sensational season, having already won the most prestigious trophy in the world – the World Cup. As well as that, the midfielder is Brighton’s top scorer this season having scored ten goals from his 76 shots, having an average of 0.92 shots on target per game. The Argentinian has scored all six of his penalties for the Seagulls this season, also having eight of their ten shots from free kicks. He has started nine times since the start of April, scoring three times, having at least one shot in all of those games and at least two in seven. This selection has landed in four of his last five starts and six of his last nine. The midfielder had two shots in the reverse fixture.
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Sheffield Wednesday v Peterborough United
League One Play-Off Semi Final
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Kick Off: 20:00
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Watch: Sky Sports Football
Sheffield Wednesday v Peterborough United Cheat Sheet
The only Premier League midweek fixture of the week sees Brighton travel to St James’ Park on Thursday evening in a hugely important battle in the race for European football for both sides. The reverse fixture was in the second week of the season and ended in a 0-0 draw where Newcastle were fortunate given that they had just four shots in the whole game and Nick Pope was awarded man of the match.
These two sides have met 31 times, with 11 of those games being in the Premier League since the start of the 2017/18 season. Newcastle have won just one of those 11 games, this exact fixture last season, and have lost by an aggregate scoreline of 11-4 in those games. However, this is a very different Toon side and they will be hoping for a victory here, coming in as 19/20 favourites.
What on earth do they do now?
A disaster of a first leg leaves Sheffield Wednesday all but out of the play-offs and realising that their 96-point regular season return is not going to end up with promotion. One of the most abject Owls performances of recent memory led to Wednesday being crushed 4-0 in the first leg at London Road, conceding twice in each half. It had looked encouraging early on against a Posh team that looked hesitant and shaky in possession, but they conceded two unfortunate goals before half-time and then were then met by a stern Peterborough rear guard and frightening counterattack threat after half-time.
You could forgive Owls fans for seeing little point in heading to the second leg at Hillsborough now. Darren Moore’s side need the miracle of all miracles. EFL Play-Off comebacks have happened before, but they have at best come from just a two-goal deficit. No team which has lost a first leg by this big a margin has ever recovered to progress…
If Carlsberg did first legs…
Confident after securing play-offs on the final day, Peterborough fans may well have believed in the idea of securing a first-leg victory at London Road. None would have foreseen a dominant 4-0 victory, however, a result which has almost guaranteed their place in the Wembley final. Posh found themselves 2-0 up in a first half that featured two fortunate goals and a rather shaky in-possession performance. The second half, however, Darren Ferguson’s side were exceptional, adding two further attacking goals and showing strong resolute defensive solidity to keep a potential Owls onslaught at bay.
Few fans of the Cambridgeshire outfit will scarcely believe the situation they find their team in, hitting to Hillsborough with an advantage that history has never seen overturned and hopeful that they can enjoy a 90-minute procession this Thursday evening to the League One Play-Off Final. A professional performance, and they are there.
Team news
Sheffield Wednesday team news
There should be plenty of intrigue as to how Darren Moore sets Sheffield Wednesday up for this second leg, knowing that his team needs at least four goals whilst also keeping Peterborough United from potentially adding any further strikes to their tally.
The decision to bring Michael Ihiekwe into the left side of the back three proved a mistake as the man low on match fitness failed to form a solid partnership with Aden Flint and Dominic Iorfa. If Moore does persist with his 3-4-1-2, Jaden Brown or Reece James could potentially be deployed in that left-centre-back role instead. Goalkeeper Cameron Dawson, who didn’t cover himself in glory for the first goal especially, could possibly be rotated out for the more experienced David Stockdale.
The quartet of Marvin Johnson, Barry Bannan, Will Vaulks and Liam Palmer should well retain their place with the key influence they have. The intrigue comes with how Moore sets up his frontline. Will he persist with the attacking midfield and front two combination, which Calum Paterson, Michael Smith and Josh Windass could link up to form? Or does he bring Lee Gregory in from the off as part of a differently shaped frontline in a much more attack-heavy formation? Something has to change to get the Owls somehow back into this…
Peterborough United team news
Peterborough United have started the same eleven for two consecutive matches and could well retain that team for this Hillsborough leg. Goalkeeper Will Norris, as well as centre-backs Ronnie Edwards and Frankie Kent, should all retain their place. Ferguson may choose to swap Harrison Burrows and Joe Ward out for more conservative, balanced full-backs with Posh’s big lead. Jack Taylor may be dropped back from attacking midfield into a slightly deeper, ball-carrying role alongside Hector Kyprianou and Oliver Norburn.
The frightening front free of Ephron Mason-Clark, Jonson Clarke-Harris and Kwame Poku could all retain their starting place, relishing the opportunity to break on the counter as Sheffield Wednesday commit numbers forward in search of their miracle comeback. Darren Ferguson may see this game as an opportunity to deploy young forward Ricky Jade-Jones though. The academy product would most likely feature on the left flank but can go across the frontline.
Sheffield Wednesday v Peterborough United bet builder tips
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Prediction: Sheffield Wednesday to win
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Odds: 1.65
The challenge awaiting Sheffield Wednesday this Thursday evening is enormous, nigh on impossible in some people’s eyes. The very least fans and neutral observers may hope for is to see the Owls reduce the aggregate deficit to a more respectable margin, and the watching home crowd will be wanting that and more.
The omens are good for Sheffield Wednesday at the very least winning this second leg. The Owls have lost just twice at home in all competitions this season. Those defeats were in the league to Barnsley and the EFL Trophy to Burton Albion, both of those games coming way back in September. Wednesday have not lost any of their 23 Hillsborough matches since, winning 18 and drawing just five of those fixtures in South Yorkshire. Only Ipswich Town scored more goals in home matches than the Owls’ total of 49, and only Ipswich and Bolton conceded fewer goals at home this season than Sheffield Wednesday’s 16.
Darren Moore’s side would always have been expected to win this second leg at Hillsborough, and now needing to win by a big margin to have any chance of progressing, there really isn’t any excuse for missing out on a home victory.
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Prediction: Over 2.5 goals
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Odds: 1.75
One goal will not do for Sheffield Wednesday. Two goals will not do for Sheffield Wednesday. Neither will three. If the Owls are to pull this off, they need an ultimate display of attacking quality and record a margin of victory that they have achieved against much inferior opposition at earlier points this season.
Sheffield Wednesday have this season scored three or more home goals against Forest Green Rovers, Wycombe Wanderers, Cheltenham Town, Burton Albion, Cambridge United, Morecambe, Milton Keynes Dons and Accrington Stanley, those wins against Forest Green Rovers and Cambridge United coming by a five-goal margin that would be perfect for this second leg.
Averaging 2.1 goals in home fixtures during the league campaign, Sheffield Wednesday are capable of getting the goals to make this tie more interesting again. They will have to remain wary of Peterborough United, who have averaged 1.6 goals on the road in 2022-23 and will relish counter-attacking opportunities in this game.
There were four goals in the first leg at London Road. It would be a shame if there weren’t plenty of goals in this fixture as well.
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Prediction: Both teams to score
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Odds: 1.85
Peterborough United are in a beautiful position. Holding a massive lead from that first leg at London Road, Posh know that their hosts will have to come out and attack at them from the off, and possibly throughout the entire game in order to somehow get things back level on aggregate.
As the match progresses and Wednesday are forced to commit more and more forwards, it further opens up the opportunity for the frontline of Ephron Mason-Clark, Jonson Clarke-Harris and Kwame Poku to have fun on the break. Mason-Clark has proved a superb summer signing from Barnet, growing into one of the most frightening, direct wingers in the entire division. Poku likewise is a nimble, direct wide player. Clarke-Harris finished as League One’s joint top-scorer and is a striker with every finish in the book.
The challenge becomes even harder for Sheffield Wednesday as they have to attempt their comeback whilst in turn handling a potentially lethal attack that could completely kill the entire tie off with one further goal. Peterborough may find the net just once at Hillsborough on Thursday, but it could prove the decisive moment in this second leg.
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AZ Alkmaar v West Ham United
UEFA Europa Conference League Semi Final
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Kick Off: 20:00
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Watch: BT Sport 1
AZ Alkmaar v West Ham United Cheat Sheet
AZ Alkmaar will host West Ham United in the second leg of their UEFA Europa Conference League semi-final hoping to turn around a 2-1 deficit as they bid to reach a major European final for the first time since 1981.
The Dutch club have certainly gone about things the long way, entering the competition at the second qualifying round and going on to beat Italian and Belgian giants Lazio and Anderlecht in the knockout rounds. The Hammers have had to fight for Premier League survival while competing in Europe but comfortable victories against AEK Larnaka and KAA Gent have helped them progress.
Two clubs with long overdue ambitions of European success – this is the kind of occasion the UEFA Europa Conference League was created for and to celebrate it, we’re providing you with AZ Alkmaar vs West Ham bet builder tips. To do that, we’ve broken down the game, the form, and likely teams to bring you a bet builder for this pivotal European clash.
Youthful AZ Alkmaar in contention for first-ever European silverware
They say you can’t win anything with kids but Pascal Jansen is doing his best to disprove that, leading the youngest team to compete in this year’s Europa Conference League to a semi-final second leg home tie.
He will fancy his team’s chances of success too given the Dutch outfit have won all eight home matches in the competition. Clearly this group, with an average age of 24.8, aren’t feeling any pressure to succeed.
Since the group stage, Alkmaar have scored 19 goals and conceded 12 in their 11 matches, accruing 21 cards. Most impressively, they have dominated possession in almost every game, never falling below 48%, and that’s despite playing two legs against Maurizio Sarri’s Lazio.
De Kaasboeren were dominant at the London Stadium, having 57% of the ball with their central defensive quartet of Sam Beukema, Pantelis Hatzidiakos, Jordy Clasie and Tijani Reijnders all making 68 or more passes and it’s likely they will see even more of the ball as they chase a win in front of their home support.
Danish forward Jens Odgaard is one to keep an eye on here, only scoring twice in the Conference League but racking up high underlying numbers. The 24-year-old has mustered 3.5 shots and 1.58 shots on target per 90 in Europe and has had a shot on target in eight of his last ten appearances, including 11 shots on target in his last five home matches. You can back him to have two or more shots on target at 2.4.
Survival secured – can West Ham win a European trophy?
West Ham have been under pressure this season thanks to a difficult start to life in the Premier League but their improvement since New Year has been stark, winning 12 and drawing six of their last 27 in all competitions to haul themselves away from relegation danger and progress in the Europa Conference League.
The Hammers have gone back to basics to improve their form, happy to sit off and let teams onto them before springing in transition and utilising set-pieces as a weapon – West Ham have had more possession than their opponents on three occasions since the turn of the year – twice against AEK Larnaka and once against League One Derby County. Clearly, passing numbers aren’t what you are looking for in your bet builder.
Michail Antonio is a player you should be focusing on. The Jamaican forward is enjoying himself in Europe with seven goals in from 5.3 90’s – an average of 1.32 goals per 90. That includes five goals in his last three starts with doubles against Larnaka and Gent to secure qualification to the semi-finals where he also scored.
Antonio is averaging 4.17 shots per 90 in Europe with 2.08 shots on target, including a shot on target in six of his last seven European appearances. He is also causing aggro for referees, committing an average of 1.67 fouls per 90 since the group stage while being fouled 2.29 times.
Elsewhere, Said Benrahma is having fun, having over four shots per 90 on average in Europe, including five last time out against Alkmaar and a shot on target in his last away start against Gent. The Algerian is also fouled 1.15 times per 90 in Europe – talented full-back Yukinari Sugawara found that out the hard way last time, committing two fouls.
Team news
AZ Alkmaar team news
Alkmaar find themselves in a battle with Ajax for third spot and can’t take their league form lightly despite the opportunity to reach a European final.
It has forced Pascal Jansen to continue fielding his strongest available XI for each match with their front six unchanged over their last three and unlikely to change here. That group includes ex-Southampton midfielder Jordy Clasie, who dons the armband, and there is another familiar name to Premier League fans in goal – ex-Brighton keeper Mat Ryan.
If there is change, it is likely to come in defence where teenagers Milos Kerkez and Wouter Goes have been given opportunities. Kerkez is likely to remain in the side here while Goes will sit out for the more experienced Sam Beukema and Pantelis Hatzidiakos.
West Ham United team news
With survival secured, David Moyes can put all of his focus into a successful European campaign and that is exactly how he approached things recently.
The Hammers made nine changes from their midweek heroics in the reverse fixture against Alkmaar in a 2-0 loss at Brentford on Sunday, Tomas Soucek and Naif Aguerd the only players to retain their spot and the former was replaced before the hour to keep him fresh.
That means we should see key figures such as Kurt Zouma, captain Declan Rice and Michail Antonio return here and that rest could be important when selecting players to include in your Alkmaar vs West Ham bet builder.
AZ Alkmaar v West Ham United bet builder tips
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Prediction: Michail Antonio to have 1+ shot on target
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Odds: 1.53
Whilst not enjoying his most stellar campaign in the claret and blue, Michail Antonio has still played a pivotal role in this underdog European quest for the Hammers.
The Jamaican international has spearheaded the attack in this Conference League campaign in the absence of the injured and below-par Gianluca Scamacca. Antonio is averaging a hefty 2.08 shots on target P90 in Europe this season. This is considerably higher than his domestic average, which has resulted in six goals across the entire European campaign (including one in the reverse fixture at the London Stadium last week).
If that isn’t enough to go by, Antonio has also managed to hit the target at least once in his last two European away games, and looks set to lead the line in a bid to send West Ham to Prague for this prestigious European final.
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Prediction: Said Benrahma to have 3+ shots
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Odds: 1.50
It is pretty much universally admitted by all West Ham fans that Said Benrahma has been the star of this somewhat underwhelming domestic season for them.
The Algerian has managed to rekindle the form that saw him become one of the most sought after Championship talents during his time at Brentford, and is now cementing himself as a key player in this David Moyes side.
Benrahma’s spontaneous style has seen him become one of the highest shot takers in this West Ham side, averaging 4.26 shots P90 in Europe this season, including three in his last European tie which would have seen this selection land.
He is known to try his luck from anywhere, and also covers both penalties and free kicks for the Hammers. He terrorised AZ in the reverse leg at the London Stadium, resulting in a total of five shots in the entire 90 mins, which would have seen this selection land with ease.
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Prediction: Over 1.5 West Ham cards
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Odds: 1.40
This debatably is West Ham’s best chance of winning European silverware in their history, compounded more by the fact that they take a 2-1 lead to the Netherlands for this second-leg clash.
There is no doubt the Hammers will do everything in their power to prevent letting this golden opportunity slip, which very well result in a few cards if the pattern of their play is anything to go by. The likes of Paqueta, Antonio, Kehrer and Soucek all average over a foul per game domestically this season (Paqueta averaging 2.13), and there is further evidence in the cards stats to suggest they should pick up at least two bookings.
David Moyes’ side are averaging 2.08 cards per game in Europe this season, with this selection landing in 5/6 of their European away games this campaign.
They have a lead to defend, and look to the usual culprits to indulge in the dark arts in order to send West Ham to Prague for their first Europa Conference Final
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