Altrincham v Bromley
When looking at the list of match odds for the midweek slate, the first thing that caught my eye was Bromley sitting at 3.3 to beat Altrincham away from home.
Altrincham are a good side. They have won seven of their 15 home matches and are one of the more enjoyable sides to watch in the National League. However, they are going through change right now. They have lost five of their forward options in the last month and a half and replaced them with eight talented but raw loanees. They come into this game having lost their last three in the league, against Chesterfield, Boreham Wood and Wrexham. Alty have had difficulties against sides in the top half of the division – they have won one, drawn four and lost ten against such opposition. Their only victory came at home against Eastleigh, who have one of the worst away records in the division.
Bromley are one of those sides in the top half of the division. The Ravens come into this game having drawn their last four in the league but having lost one of their last 11 – and that came away at Wrexham. In fact, they have lost five of their last 21 in the National League and four of those came against the top five, the other away at Maidenhead United who regularly see off big opposition at home.
Andy Woodman has been able to call upon a near full-strength side in recent weeks and they’ve been solid defensively, conceding an average of 1.15xG over their last seven. Perhaps most notably coming into this game, the South London side have lost two of 16 matches against sides 12th or below in the league table.
Oldham Athletic v Gateshead
A huge match in the battle for survival and one that could be an absolute corker.
Oldham Athletic come into this game outside of the relegation zone having won four of their last eight, including a 4-2 victory against Dagenham and Redbridge last midweek in which they scored twice in the final minutes. Gateshead, meanwhile, have given themselves a huge shot at survival after one defeat and three wins in their last six, helped enormously by Mike Williamson being able to call upon almost a full squad of players. And though they have lost Danny Elliott, who scored five in seven league matches, they have signed Marcus Dinanga from Altrincham and Aaron Martin is fit again.
Tuesday’s hosts have seen both sides score in eight of their last ten league matches. The other two were victories over a York City side in a state of chaos at the time and FC Halifax Town, whose miserly record will be written about below. The Latics have kept one clean sheet in ten matches and just three in 19 under David Unsworth. Gateshead have seen both teams score in 71% of their league matches this season, helped by a record of keeping just three clean sheets in their 28 league matches. They have scored in five of their last six, creating an average of 2.06xG per game. Six of their seven league matches against sides 17th or lower have finished up BTTS, the outlier being their 3-0 mauling of York City.
Southend United v FC Halifax Town
A game between two sides that are miserly defensively but tend to struggle in front of goal.
Southend United are in all sorts of trouble off the pitch, to the point that the club may not exist in less than a month’s time. Kevin Maher is at least able to call upon his first-choice back five again and they come into this one having won three of their last four league matches, the only hiccup a 3-1 loss at home against Eastleigh in which they were the dominant side. FC Halifax Town, meanwhile, have lost five of their last seven with Chris Millington under pressure at the moment from fans who aren’t happy with results and style.
Stylistically, they are both likely to come into this game playing a variation of 3-5-2 / 3-4-3 and defensive structure will be prioritised by both, as is their nature. Southend are having issues with their attack at present with Harry Cardwell playing through injury and Jake Hyde and Rhys Murphy in and out as they return to the fold. Halifax are without their first-choice midfield trio Luke Summerfield, Kian Spence and Matt Warburton, their creative levels dropping unsurprisingly as a result.
The two sides are comfortably bottom of the table when it comes to the number of games in which both sides have scored. Southend have seen it happen in 39% (33% at home) of theirs, Halifax 38% (40% away). Above them is Yeovil Town with 46%. The hosts have seen BTTS – Yes in just five of their last 15 league matches, the visitors in one of their last five. Southend have seen BTTS – Yes in two of their nine matches at home against sides 12th or below in the league table, Halifax in two of seven matches away from home against top half sides.
Wrexham v Woking
A huge fixture in the race for both the title and the all-important third place finish, which provides a bye into the National League play-off semi-finals.
Both sides are in phenomenal form coming into this one. Wrexham have won each of their last eight in the league and 14 of their last 17, leaving them with a points-per-game total of 2.45 across the season. They have won all 13 home matches. Woking, meanwhile, have accrued 2.13 points across their last eight, won 11 of their last 17 and currently sit in third position, albeit they’ve played two games more than Barnet and Chesterfield.
Wrexham have been excellent, but they’re not infallible. Phil Parkinson’s side have conceded in every home match against sides 11th or higher, including at the weekend against Wealdstone. They conceded in five of their last six in the league and also had high-scoring FA Cup and FA Trophy matches against Sheffield United, Coventry City and Altrincham during that run. They also come into this game without two starters in the back three – Jordan Tunnicliffe and Aaron Hayden – and their defensive midfielder – Tom O’Connor. While they have strong depth, that is still three of their defensive quartet missing.
Woking have scored in all but five of their league matches this season and scored twice in defeats against Wrexham and Notts County earlier in the campaign. They have scored in seven of their last eight league matches but conceded in 11 of 12. Darren Sarll sides have caused Wrexham problems over the last 18 months too – he beat them with both Yeovil Town and Woking last season. Wrexham may win this game, but Woking are likely to ensure they do it the hard way.
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