AEK Larnaca v FC Midtjylland (Champions League)

After 1-1 in the first leg in Denmark, it is time for the return leg between AEK Larnaca from Cyprus and FC Midtjylland. The away side dominated the first game, and should comfortably have won with a couple of goals, but their finishing was simply awful. In this second match, we could easily get a much different picture. 

AEK Larnaca were lucky to leave Denmark with a 1-1. The Danes had one big opportunity after another, and AEK were in big trouble. However, they pulled through, and now they are going into this match with cause for optimism. They remain the underdog according to the bookmakers, but they definitely have chances at home in Cyprus. 

AEK are traditionally a strong home team, and the weather report for the match says 36 degrees Celsius. This is going to be a serious advantage as they are more used to the hot weather than the Danish side. 

Midtjylland have started the season in a disappointing fashion. In the weekend, they lost 3-1 at home to Silkeborg, and they are yet to win a game this season. The only positive thing for the Wolves is that they continue to create a lot of chances. If they can increase the sharpness in front of goal the results should change quickly. 

Unfortunately for Midtjylland, they’ll be without Brazilian playmaker Evander. Striker Junior Brumado is furthermore injured, while captain and central defender Erik Sviatchenko is doubtful. 

I expect a close and nervous match. Neither team wants to expose themselves, and with a draw in the first leg, neither have the need to risk anything. With Midtjylland missing some of their key players, they could struggle more offensively too. Therefore, I recommend betting on AEK making it extremely tough for the Danes and denying them victory come full time.

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Viktoria Plzen v HJK (Champions League)

The first leg of this match may well have been the ninety minutes that kickstarted HJK’s season after a very underwhelming 2022 so far – yet they still go into the second leg with a deficit. Klubi were excellent on the whole, their performance was one of the best we’ve seen so far this season and they genuinely put Plzen under significant pressure. Alas, giving away an early penalty was a massive naïve moment and may well have made the chasm too large.

On Saturday against Ilves, they went behind again and needed a fairly late rally to claim three points. The Ilves goal was a cross from deep with the defence stuttering – but former Finland defender Paulus Arajuuri is set to make his debut as part of a strong travelling squad alongside numerous other experienced internationals. Striker Bojan Radulovic continues to be the main light up front, scoring the equaliser in the first game and coming off the bench to do the same at the weekend. Malik Abubakari made way for Bojan at the weekend and will need to pick up some of the slack since his move from Malmo until Riku Riski gains sufficient fitness to feature.

It’s a huge task for HJK to go and win in Czechia against a side who haven’t lost a competitive home game in over a year. For all of Plzen looking shaken and stirred beforehand, they still punished mistakes and now have a lead to defend. It looks like another valiant European defeat.

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Bodø/Glimt v Linfield (Champions League)

The first leg ended in a shock 1-0 victory for Linfield. Despite constant Bodø/Glimt domination a defensive mistake allowed Kirk Millar to score the only goal of the game and provide the Northern Irish champions with a valuable lead heading into the second leg here at Aspmyra Stadion. Lindfield, who are managed by former Leeds striker David Healey were surprisingly very defensive at Windsor Park and basically parked a double decker bus. They frustrated Glimt and the home crowd really got behind their team making a great atmosphere. They were lucky to actually win but their efforts in securing the clean sheet were admirable. Bodø/Glimt had an xG of 2.31 in that match and will wonder how they didn’t score though. It will likely be the exact same Linfield game plan here in Norway. Bodø/Glimt warmed up for the fixture by comfortably beating Jerv 5-0 at the weekend. It was a good dress-rehearsal facing a similar sort of side who also just parked the bus. This time Glimt showed greater patience and skill to waltz to victory.

Linfield only had an xG of 0.88 in the first leg and offered very little. Their one goal was the result of a defensive mistake. It would be a surprise if they scored a goal here and their only chance is probably from a set piece or another defensive error. Glimt are going to dominate this match from start to finish and will probably have at least 75% possession. The key is converting their dominance into goals, but it should be such a barrage of pressure that eventually Linfield break. Away goals do not count anymore which is to Bodø/Glimt’s advantage here. If they win by exactly one goal, then this tie would be taken into extra time, but the logical outcome is for a blowout home victory. Key striker Amahl Pellegrino did not start last week in Belfast but is now back to full fitness and helped himself to a hat-trick against Jerv on Saturday. Defender Brede Moe is still doubtful with injury for the hosts, but his absence shouldn’t matter in a match they will dominate.

You won’t get rich backing Bodø/Glimt to win at odds of 1.06 so we need to look elsewhere for value. The home side are highly likely to win this match to nil, but the bookmakers are taking no chances there either with a price of 1.36. Bodø/Glimt might not need to score three goals but odds of 1.44 on the hosts netting over 2.5 probably looks like the best value. The -2 handicap is priced higher, but you’d need them to score at least three goals for that to win anyway. The 2-0 exact score line is a danger for this selection but the Norwegian champions will be fired up and likely to be fully focused after losing the first leg. This should be a convincing home victory in which they score several goals past Lindfield.

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AIK v Vorskla (Conference League)

A very disappointing first leg where AIK were defeated 3-2 means significant improvement is needed in Stockholm in order to progress to the next round.

The classic Solna club has hit a bit of a slump recently; after a very impressive start to the season the last nine matches in all competitions have only brought three wins. Normally so solid defensively, they’ve been more open of late, conceding five in the last two matches. In the first leg, Vorskla found it much too easy getting to the edge of the box and delivering crosses, while the winning goal was an unstoppable thunderbolt from 35+ yards. The visiting side certainly has some quality but hadn’t played any competitive football since December 2021, and AIK were heavy favourites ahead of this two-legged tie (1.04 to qualify).

Spirits will have been raised somewhat by a 3-2 win over IFK Värnamo at the weekend, thanks to a couple of costly mistakes by their opponents’ defenders. John Guidetti scored his first goal for the club and is looking increasingly sharp in open play, his quality shining through on several occasions as he also provided a backheel assist. It remains to be seen if he’ll be fit enough to start again here, if not likely replacement Benjamin Kimpioka is no slouch.

They still have problems with letting teams penetrate too easily due to a lack of pressing when out of possession, dropping too deep into their own box. I expect to see more urgency in this match with qualification on the line, playing on their preferred surface (grass) makes a difference too. AIK’s strength in depth and match fitness should secure the victory here, win odds represents good value.

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Fenerbahçe v Dinamo Kiev (Champions League)

Fenerbahce were strong in defense in the first match and gave little opportunity to its opponent. However, the most important name of the defense was not Kim Min-jae and the player who continues the transfer negotiations will not participate in this match. In addition, the other key defender Serdar Aziz was injured during the match, he will not be able to play for 4 to 6 weeks.

That being the case, it was vital that they didn’t concede a goal in such a situation. Defensive midfielder Willian Arao, who helps cover the backline consistently, should help the back a lot in this match as well. Central midfielder Mert Hakan Yandaş is still injured and new transfer Joao Pedro is also not eligible to play.

The match played in Poland finished 0-0. Dynamo Kiev’s squad is also limited and they are experiencing the effects of being away from the competitive game. The match will be played at the Fenerbahce Stadium as a sellout. It is certain that Fenerbahce will play with resistance in front of the full stands. Dynamo Kyiv, of course, consider this match, to play in European cups, as an honor. Dinamo’s coach Mircea Lucescu, who has previously worked and won trophies in Turkey, knows Turkish football very well. He will definitely prepare his team well and try to eliminate Fenerbahçe.

Both teams will try to play with the priority of defense. The home team is more likely to win. Fenerbahce’s coach Jorge Jesus is also very experienced, it will not be an easy match to score.

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FC Zurich v Qarabag (Champions League)

Life under new management is proving to be a difficult adjustment for FC Zurich. Franco Foda’s men have drawn one and lost one on domestic duty and head into their second leg UEFA Champions League qualifier at the Letzigrund needing to overturn a 3-2 deficit against Azerbaijani side Qarabag.

That match in Baku last Tuesday was a game that FCZ were probably fortunate to escape from with their hopes still alive in the tie. After the second goal was scored by the dominant hosts on thirty-six minutes, it looked like it could be a long and very damaging night for the Swiss champions. While there were more hiccups to come, such as conceding immediately after bringing the score to 2-1, a penalty five minutes from time that was duly converted by Mirlind Kryeziu has FCZ in a position to turn the aggregate score around at home.

While their visitors were given the week off from league action, FCZ were hosts to FC Luzern on Sunday. The performance raised more question marks than anything else with the loss of key players such as Ousmane Doumbia and top goalscorers Assan Ceesay and Blaz Kramer clearly evident at this early stage of the season. FCZ did create plenty of chances in the game, but they also conceded many too in a very even match.

I think that theme will continue. I’m still of the opinion that Zurich are weaker than they were last season, both managerially and on-field personnel. I expect Qarabag to approach this game defensively, and I do believe that Zurich can find the net, but I wouldn’t be surprised if The Horsemen snatch a goal themselves, especially with how fragile the defence of der Stadtclub has been recently. I’ll go with BTTS here.

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