NAC Breda v ADO Den Haag
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Tuesday 10th May – 5:45PM KO
We have reached the promotion/relegation play-offs with the teams from the Eerste Divisie playing the quarter-finals and this round immediately has a big tie on show. Both NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag are top division teams based on history and fan base, but both clubs dropped out recently and have struggled with management issues, lots of them even this season. For ADO, that could come to an end soon, as the club was finally sold to an American company that saved them from bankruptcy.
One of the first decisions the new American owners made was to sack manager Ruud Brood, who was doing a decent job. They left interim Giovanni Franken in charge, but he’s had a rocky start. ADO did pick up their level again towards the end of the season, but the side still looks shaky. NAC Breda’s second half of the season is what saved them. Since the turn of year, they compete with the top teams, after they’d initially struggled to stay in the play-off spots. So on recent form NAC should be favoured here and the bookies agree with that.
Both ADO and NAC Breda seem to have their regular starting XI available for this game, so that means that both teams should be playing their best. The bookmakers expect goals in this game, but the stakes are high and especially Franken seemed to have fared a lot better after he built in some extra defensive strength in recent games. NAC will want to force a quick decision in their own stadium, but they scored more than their xG suggests in several of the recent games and that won’t last forever, so I think we might see fewer goals than most expect.
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Prediction: Under 3.5 Goals, 1.60 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐)
Excelsior v Roda JC
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Tuesday 10th May – 8:00PM KO
Excelsior and Roda JC finished the season on even points and have two of the best attacking lines of the league, but other than that, they have very different realities. Roda started the season pretty badly, but climbed up since the winter break and for a moment they even looked like they were going to challenge for direct promotion. Two defeats towards the end of the season prevented that, but Roda will be confident going into the play-offs, and that won’t be the case for their opponents.
Excelsior were in the top two for almost the entire first half of the season and against the pre-season predictions, they were a serious contender for the title. With Thijs Dallinga they had the absolute top goalscorer before the winter break with 25 goals, but since then it has been a whirlwind in Rotterdam. They went on a six match streak without victory, then won five in a row to put them back in the top two and finished the season with another six match winless run, leaving them in sixth position. Dallinga scored a couple more goals, but didn’t come near his form from 2021.
Especially that last run can’t feel good going into the play-offs, as they conceded lots of goals as well. I think Roda will smell blood and try to finish it from early on. Excelsior don’t have a stadium, nor fan base to really worry Roda JC either, so I expect the away side to get a result here.
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Prediction: Roda Double Chance, 1.57 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐)
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