Notts County v Barnet (National League)

A selection based on numbers and styles. 

Dean Brennan admitted post-match that he wants his sides to play on the front foot but the disparity in the division doesn’t always give him the opportunity to set up his Barnet side to play that way. However, his team got after Aldershot Town on Saturday and it paid off with a 3-1 victory. There are reasons at both ends to expect goals with striker Adam Marriott back in the starting XI and amongst the goals, centre-back Jamie Turley being unavailable for off-field reasons and left-back Sam Beard suffering with Tonsilitis. 

Brennan will have been encouraged by Grimsby Town’s victory at New Meadow on Saturday, both morally and in terms of how they did it, Hurst admitting afterwards he had to make a positive change to close County’s wing-backs higher up the pitch. It showed that Notts County are fallible. However, they remain one of the strongest sides in the division, have an abundance of creativity and, as Ian Burchnall noted earlier in the season, they are very good at progressing the ball and getting into the opposition box. 

Four of Barnet’s last five games have ended with both teams finding the back of the net while Notts County have seen both teams score in six of their last eight.  

Wealdstone v Yeovil Town (National League)

Yeovil Town don’t do inconsistent form, it’s more streaky than that. Three consecutive victories early in the season has been followed by runs of six without a win, eight without defeat, four straight losses and three without defeat. They’ll fancy their chances of making that four when they visit Wealdstone on Tuesday night. 

When in good form, Yeovil tend not to score or concede many goals. Their run of eight without defeat saw Yeovil concede just three goals and never score more than twice in a game – six of their eight games ended with two or less goals. Their recent return to form came against Woking in a 1-0 victory and that has been followed up with a 1-1 and a second 0-0 draw of the season against play-off contenders Solihull Moors. The return of Luke Wilkinson from injury and signing of Ben Barclay have had a positive impact while the loss of Joe Quigley and injury to Tom Knowles had blunted their attacking output.  

Wealdstone, meanwhile, are a side that play a lot of their football on tight margins. Only four of their league matches this season have been separated by more than one goal (all defeats) and only one of those has come at home (a 4-1 defeat against Stockport County). The Stones tend to mirror their opposition in terms of goals scored in a game – their games against the eight sides with the lowest goals per game total in the division this season read 0-1, 0-1, 0-0, 0-0. 0-0. 1-0 and 0-0. 

With Yeovil Town bottom of that list and back in form, it stands a chance that we will see another low scoring match at Grosvenor Vale.  

Chorley v Spennymoor Town (National League North)

Chorley have been in sensational form since losing their opening two league matches. They have lost just one of their last 22 league matches – an away defeat against Hereford – and are unbeaten in their last 11 at home, the only blots on their copy book being an early-season draw with Bradford Park Avenue and games against third place Kidderminster Harriers and fourth place AFC Fylde.  

While Chorley have shown they can defend when they need to – as games against Southport (0-0), Gateshead (1-0) and Brackley Town (0-0) have shown – they are at their best when looking to outscore the opposition. The Lancashire outfit have seen both teams score in eight of their last ten matches with the only blots being those aforementioned fixtures with Gateshead and Brackley Town. Recent results have included a 4-3 win against Curzon Ashton, a 2-2 draw with AFC Fylde, a 3-2 win versus Hereford and Saturday’s 3-3 draw at Farsley Celtic.  

Their form in front of goal will be worrying for Bernard Morley and Anthony Johnson as they look to improve Spennymoor Town’s fortunes. The duo, famous for their exploits at Salford City, took over on December 12^th but a flurry of postponed fixtures means they have only overseen six league matches in that time and any hopes of a new manager bounce have been put to the wayside. However, all six of those matches have seen both teams score. Glen Taylor signed a new deal in the week and he’s as close to guaranteed goals in the National League set-up as they come.  

It’s very tempting to back Chorley to win but with three draws in their last four and Spennymoor fresh having not played at the weekend due to Kidderminster Harriers’ exploits, I’m backing both teams to score.  

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Telford v Southport (National League North)

If you asked a few weeks back who would win this fixture, it would have been hard to bet against Southport.  

Leading into the weekend of 22^nd January, AFC Telford had won just two football matches all season – an opening day victory against Chorley and a 2-0 victory against fellow strugglers Farsley Celtic. They were without a victory in 11 matches and had lost three of their last four at home. Southport, meanwhile, were going into their game with Gloucester City unbeaten in 12 league matches winning nine. They would go on to beat The Tigers and then Guiseley to extend their unbeaten run to 14 going into February.  

Telford ended their drab run in style, hitting Darlington for five. They then beat Bradford Park Avenue 3-0 and impressively held Curzon Ashton to a 0-0 draw away from home at the weekend, making it three clean sheets on the bounce and three without defeat. Southport, meanwhile, saw their unbeaten run end against Kettering Town and were then thumped 5-0 by Chester at the weekend. How quickly football changes.  

Paul Cardle has made some changes to the playing staff at Telford and it is beginning to pay off whereas Liam Watson’s focus will be on avoiding a run similar the one they started the season with – it took The Sandgrounders eight games to register their first victory.  

Braintree Town v Chelmsford City (National League South)

It’s taken a while but Chelmsford City have finally found their feet in this 2021-22 campaign. 

The Essex club won just two of their opening 14 matches and there will have been plenty of frustration with only two of those matches being decided by more than the odd goal. Clearly, Robbie Simpson’s side weren’t far away from turning defeats into draws and draws into wins. That has finally become a reality since their month-long break from league action in November and December. Since returning to action on 18th December, Chelmsford have won four, drawn four and lost one of their nine matches and notably, three of those wins have been by more than the odd goal. The return of Danny Imray provided even more reasons for fans to be excited and he scored in their impressive 3-1 victory away at Dulwich Hamlet on Saturday.  

Braintree Town have shown minor improvements themselves of late. They have recorded back-to-back clean sheets to halt a run of seven games in which they had conceded at least two goals. However, wins remain few and far between for Ryan Maxwell’s side – they have won just three of their 22 league matches. And while they have only lost four of their ten league matches, they have won just once leaving few with confidence going into their midweek clash with nearby Chelmsford City.  

With Braintree and Chelmsford City both leading the charts for draws this season (nine apiece), going outright may not be wise but the hosts tend not to win at home and the visitors have won four of their last eight league matches.  

Ebbsfleet United v St. Albans City (National League South)

Tuesday night sees the side with the second-best home record take on the side with the third best away record in terms of points per game.  

Ebbsfleet United love playing at home. Their record so far this campaign reads 11 played, eight wins and two losses. They fell very early on in the campaign against Havant and Waterlooville but otherwise, have only failed to pick up all three points against league leaders Maidstone United and a surprise 0-0 draw against a resurgent Billericay Town over the Christmas period. Since that defeat against Maidstone on 23^rd November, they have played five home matches, winning four and conceding just once. While they have lost three of their last four, they have all come on the road against the teams above them in the league table.  

St.Albans City have been excellent away from home and their league position of 7^th is impressive considering they have played the least number of games in the division (21). In fact, they have played five less games than the side in sixth place and their points-per-game tally has them closer to the top five than the rest of the division. While St.Albans have won five and drawn two of their nine away matches, all seven of those results have come against sides 12^th or lower in the league table. They have played two away matches against top half sides and lost both. Also, they have played nine matches against sides in the top 11 winning once and losing six.  

With the hosts so strong at home and the visitors generally struggling against the better sides in the division, I’m backing the hosts here.  

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