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UFC 309 11/1 Accumulator Tips, Best Bets & Picks

UFC 309 11/1 Accumulator Tips, Best Bets & Picks

Saturday 16 November, 20241 min read
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ABC Editorial Team

The ABC Editorial Team have a combined Sports Journalism experience of 20+ years. They love to crunch the numbers for all betting predictions, meticulously finding value in each selection. Football experts in their own right, they each bring specialists sports and leagues to the table. Whether it be football, horse racing, boxing, darts, or NFL, our team is equipped to bring you the most insightful and valuable betting tips around.

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UFC 309 takes place this Sunday morning from the famous Madison Square Garden in New York City.

Heavyweight champion and potential GOAT Jon Jones makes the first defence of his belt against future Hall of Famer Stipe Miocic in a fight that Jones has described as his retirement fight, but with interim champion Tom Aspinall waiting in the wings, that very well could change.

It’s why we’ve found some good value in the MMA tips & best bets below:

  • Jon Jones by KO/TKO (2.25)
  • Under 1.5 Rounds in Oliveira v Chandler (1.90)
  • Bo Nickal by KO/TKO or Paul Craig by Submission (1.57)
  • Eryk Anders to Win (1.83)

Jon Jones (C) v Stipe Miocic (#8) - UFC Heavyweight Championship

👊🏻 Jon Jones by KO/TKO (2.25)

The fight that we all didn’t want, but it transpires the fight we can’t wait to watch. Two of the greatest lock horns at MSG on Sunday morning UK time as Jon Jones makes the first defense of his heavyweight belt against another future UFC Hall of Famer Stipe Miocic. Despite the presence of interim champion Tom Aspinall somewhat overshadowing proceedings, both men are focused on the task at hand, and it would be silly to back against ‘Jonny Bones’ despite fighting for only the second time in almost five years. Stipe Miocic himself is fighting for the first time since 2021, and the long layoff will surely take its course against, if you ask Dana White, the GOAT of the sport. Expect Jones to utilise his superior grappling and wrestling skills to bring Miocic to the mat, and once there it’s a question of when not if Jones gets the finish. 2.25 is a staggering price offered by the bookies for Jones to get Miocic out of there with ground and pound. Doubters will point to the fact that Jones has not finished an opponent with strikes since overcoming Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 232 back in 2018, but Miocic’s inactivity will surely play a role.

Charles Oliveira (#2) v Michael Chandler (#7) - Lightweight

👊🏻 Under 1.5 Rounds (1.90)

Michael Chandler will be disappointed his fight with Conor McGregor seems to have been stalled indefinitely, but he can take solace knowing that he’s giving the fans what they want in this rematch against former foe Charles Oliveira. The pair last met in 2021 with Oliveira getting the second-round finish in a frantic back-and-forth fight, and this one is sure to be a Fight of the Year contender again. Bookmakers have it priced evenly on both the over and unders here, but we’re siding with the unders with both men vying for yet another Fight of the Night bonus. This selection has landed in three of Chandler’s five UFC fights, including the first bout with Oliveira. It has also landed in two of Oliveira’s last four, not including the first bout with Chandler. A co-main event worthy of a Madison Square Garden crowd, and one which is unlikely to go to the judges’ scorecards. Backing unders at just south of evens here looks like a smart play.

Bo Nickal v Paul Craig - Middleweight

👊🏻 Bo Nickal by KO/TKO or Paul Craig by Submission (1.57)

Now for one of the more interesting fights on the card, as NCAA juggernaut Bo Nickal takes yet another step up in competition against ever-game Scotsman Paul Craig. Paddy Power have Nickal priced as low as 1.08 to win the fight on the nose, so it may pose questions as to why we are backing a double chance with one leg backing Craig to win by submission. That comes down to two things: Can Nickal back up the hype, and what Paul Craig will show up? Nickal will shoot for the takedown, this much is certain given his ludicrous collegiate wrestling credentials, but how will he fare given this is only his seventh professional fight? Craig is a wizard off his back and you can never count him out of a fight, just look to his last-second submission of top-ranked light heavyweight Magomed Ankalaev back in 2018 as proof. There are a lot of questions over whether this is too much too soon for Nickal, but he has wiped away the lower competition put in front of him so far in the UFC. If Nickal gets Craig to the ground, expect Nickal to initiate the ground and pound, but Craig is best off his back on the mat. Covering both scenarios at 1.57 seems decent value given Nickal’s short odds to win here.

Chris Weidman v Eryk Anders - Middleweight

👊🏻 Eryk Anders to Win (1.83)

This will no doubt be the swansong for former middleweight champion Chris Weidman in front of a home crowd in New York. The ‘All-American’ has had a career to be proud of, and had he not thrown that infamous missed wheel kick at UFC 194, which resulted in him losing the belt to Luke Rockhold, who knows what would have been. Injuries have hampered any potential push back toward the top of the rankings, with Weidman trading wins and losses to amass a modest 16-7 record at the time of writing. His opponent Eryk Anders has also traded wins and losses in recent years, but not to the extent of Weidman. Weidman’s last win came in controversial circumstances against Bruno Silva, who himself is on a 1-6 run in the UFC over the past two and a half years. Bookmakers have Weidman placed as a slight underdog in what surely will be his retirement fight, but we haven’t seen any inkling of the fighter that ended Anderson Silva’s famous win streak in 2013. It pains me to say it but I can’t see a Weidman swansong here. Anders at 1.83 is the pick for me here.
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