Varberg, a team distinctly lacking in quality and in terrible form, take on the markedly improved Hammarby who are pushing for a top-four spot in the league. These sides sit at opposite ends of the form table, with Hammarby winning four of their last six while the home side has lost five in the same stretch of games, and all signs point towards an away win in this encounter.

Varberg’s struggles began early in the campaign and have never subsided, being left behind at the bottom of the table, with nine points between them and Sirius in the relegation playoff spot. They have only won three games all season and were trounced 7-0 by, the aforementioned, Sirius last weekend. The lack of any home advantage has been a huge downfall, with one of the lowest attendances in the division, a big reason why this selection looks overpriced. Infact, they have collected more points away from home with a dire home record of 1-3-7.

In general, they have been too easy to break down and struggle massively against better opposition, conceding over 2.2 goals per game on average. That record is even worse in recent times, letting in 18 in the last five.

Hammarby, on the other hand, have been steadily improving over the last couple of months after an inconsistent start to the season, winning six of their last nine matches and playing much better football. They are more settled in their newly composed back-three system, allowing exciting forward talents Djukanovic and Erabi to fire on all cylinders. The duo have combined for six goals in the last five matches, really reaching maturity in their play and contributing to their side’s resurgence. Hammarby’s unbeaten run (four wins, one draw) was halted last weekend by a 3-1 loss to league leaders Malmö who were clinical, but in truth, Hammarby’s performance deserved more.

Their away struggles earlier in the season were well-documented, not recording a win on their first eight matches on the road. The last four have however brought two victories, and they look more settled and able to dominate games even on grass which has been an issue previously. It seems the bookies have not yet adjusted to this improvement in away form.

The away side also have an added motivational factor, hot on the heels of stuttering Stockholm rivals Djurgården in fourth, five points separating the two with seven games remaining. A fourth-placed finish could lead to European football next season, depending on the outcome of the Swedish Cup. Meanwhile, Varberg are hopelessly doomed to spend a season in the second tier for the first time since 2019. Both their morale and motivation are likely to be in the gutters, seemingly in a hopeless position.

In a fixture that simply should only be won by one team, an away victory looks ludicrously overpriced. Last time the two met in April, when Hammarby’s form was considerably worse, the odds were 1.3 in their favour, ending in a 2-0 victory. A 1.53 away win is therefore very generous with a head-to-head record that heavily favours Hammarby and no real home advantage.