ABC logo
William Hill
William Hill

Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets for Tonight's Europa League

Claim Offer

18+. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 18.10.2022. £30 bonus. New customers only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #ad

Sky Bet
Sky Bet

£30 in Free Bets When You Place Any Bet on Tonight's Europa League

Claim Offer

New customers only. First single and e/w bet only. 5p minimum stake. Odds of 1/1 or greater. 3 x £10 bet tokens. Free bet stakes not included in returns. Free bets exclude virtuals. Free bets are non withdrawable. Free bets expire after 30 days. Eligibility restrictions and further terms and conditions apply. 18+. begambleaware.org AD

Watford v Leeds Bet Builder Tips, Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Watford v Leeds Bet Builder Tips, Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Friday 29 March, 20243 min read
Avatar

Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...

Watford v Leeds

📅
Kick Off: Friday 29th March at 20:00
🏆
Competition: Championship
📺
Watch Live: Sky Sports Football

Our final game on Friday comes from Vicarage Road, where Watford host league leaders Leeds. Our football coverage this Easter weekend also includes a variety of EFL betting predictions and EFL accumulator tips. As ever on Andy's Bet Club we also have a huge range of football tips and expert betting predictions from outside the EFL to help you bag a winner.

Before you place your bets though, make sure you browse our carefully curated selection of free bets and all of the best bet builder bookmaker offers to make your money work for you.

Depending on what happens in the early kick-offs, Leeds could sit anywhere from top to outside of the promotion places by the time this match begins.

Regardless of their position, the Whites will know that this is another must-win game if they are to achieve their season-long goal of promotion back to the Premier League at the first time of asking.

A lot of Leeds’ players, and Watford’s to be fair, will have been away on international duty, with some having had more successful trips than others. It will be interesting to see if Dan James starts for Leeds after his dramatic penalty shoot-out woes for Wales, but he may be one of the fresher options given his arrival into the game as a substitute.

Watford are probably one of the few Championship teams who have very little to play for even at this stage. Of course, Tom Cleverley will not be feeling that way. The former Man Utd player is now an interim manager at Watford and he will be hoping to enhance his reputation as a coach with this window of 8 matches ahead.

The match after an international break can be difficult to get a read on, however, we have a good chunk of data and performances from the season as a whole to help guide us to some value selections to put together into a bet builder.

Watford v Leeds Cheat Sheet

Generic

This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.

🔥 Sign up to our free Gem Bet email here to be first to some standout selections.

There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets, and we encourage you to find your own methods for helping you pick a winning bet builder, however, if you're unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.

You can find Watford v Leeds match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.

🏆 Match stats: Leeds to pile on home woes for the Hornets

Leeds have become very ruthless since the turn of the year in the Championship. Their performance data in that period sees them top of the expected points standings, as well as the league table. They have the highest xG in the league over the last 13 games, and the lowest xGA in that time period as well, which gives them an xG difference that is 3 xG better than their nearest challengers, Ipswich. Meanwhile, Watford sit in the lower mid table for both chance creation and chance concession. Their home form is a massive concern as well having not won at Vicarage Road since the 28th November. Six defeats and three draws followed that dominant win against Norwich, though they lost the xG battle in only four of those nine. This would suggest that they are either conceding poor goals or not finishing their chances, the truth probably sits with a foot in both camps. Either way, there is little hope in the data for Watford to stop Leeds’ juggernaut, but in football many things can happen. Leeds have to be favoured for the result here, and with the chance of a comfortable win if one is feeling riskier.

Predictions:

⚽ Leeds to win @ 1.50

⚽ Leeds (-1 handicap) @ 2.50

🎯 Shooting stats: Gnonto the form man for Leeds in attack

In previous weeks we have looked away from Wilfried Gnonto for shots on target on account of his data not being as strong as his fellow forwards. However, it has become clear that the young Italian is in great form and not only is he hitting the target regularly, but he is scoring goals regularly. His shots on target per 90 ratio isn’t as high as the likes of Joel Piroe, Crysencio Summerville, or even Georginio Rutter, but he is improving as the season goes on, to the extent that his bigger price is now probably the best value in the Leeds shots on target offering. The issue for Watford is that Leeds don’t give up many shots on target. However, Emmanuel Dennis has shown a real spark since returning to Vicarage Road. He has the individual quality to breach Leeds’ defence and he is averaging well over a shot on target per game for Watford. His price does reflect that data, but there is still room for growth in those numbers as Dennis continues to get used to the system and playing consistently again.

Predictions:

⚽ Wilfried Gnonto to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.40

⚽ Wilfried Gnonto to have 2+ shots on target @ 2.80

⚽ Emmanuel Dennis to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.67

🚩 Corners stats: Watford worth a look as outsiders

This market all hinges on the difference that is made between home and away form in the corners market. There is no team in the Championship with the corner variance of Watford in the league this year. They have a very strong record for corners at home, only Southampton can better Watford 6.95 corners won per game at home, and they keep their opponents down too. Again it is only one team, Leeds in this case, who keep their opponents down lower than Watford’s average of 3.21 per match. Leeds themselves actually concede more corners than they earn on the road, and by a decent margin - 4.63-6.42 on average. It may be that Watford frustrate Leeds in this match and Leeds have to come on strong to dominate the match, which usually does lead to more corners, but there is also every chance that Leeds could score early and Watford have more licence to take the game to their visitors at home under new management. At the prices, the Hornets are worth supporting in this area.

Predictions:

⚽ Over 3.5 Watford corners @ 1.50

⚽ Watford corner match bet @ 3.0

🛑 Fouls stats: Kone a surprisingly big price for fouls

So often the fouls market in Leeds matches surrounds one man, Georginio Rutter. No player in the Championship has more than the combined foul total of the young Frenchman, he has been fouled 92 times in 34.5 90s and he has also committed 57 fouls in that time. He is getting too short to add into the fouls market himself, but opponents who could foul him seem a good price. Ismael Kone is perhaps a bit too forward-thinking to be up against Rutter that many times, but with both players dropping back often he is a decent price here. Kone does average comfortably more than a foul a game regardless of his opponents so it looks like a good leg on a bet builder. Gnonto has been mentioned for his shooting prowess but he is another Leeds forward with a high foul ratio, almost 2 fouls per 90 minutes at the moment.

Predictions:

⚽ Ismael Kone to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.36

⚽ Ismael Kone to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.80

⚽ Wilfried Gnonto to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.20

⚽ Wilfried Gnonto to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.0

* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

Emoji
Written by an Andy verified content writer

18+ please gamble responsibly.