Leeds have become very ruthless since the turn of the year in the Championship. Their performance data in that period sees them top of the expected points standings, as well as the league table.

They have the highest xG in the league over the last 13 games, and the lowest xGA in that time period as well, which gives them an xG difference that is 3 xG better than their nearest challengers, Ipswich.

Meanwhile, Watford sit in the lower mid table for both chance creation and chance concession. Their home form is a massive concern as well having not won at Vicarage Road since the 28th November. Six defeats and three draws followed that dominant win against Norwich, though they lost the xG battle in only four of those nine.

This would suggest that they are either conceding poor goals or not finishing their chances, the truth probably sits with a foot in both camps.

Either way, there is little hope in the data for Watford to stop Leeds’ juggernaut, but in football many things can happen. Leeds have to be favoured for the result here, and with the chance of a comfortable win if one is feeling riskier.

In previous weeks we have looked away from Wilfried Gnonto for shots on target on account of his data not being as strong as his fellow forwards.

However, it has become clear that the young Italian is in great form and not only is he hitting the target regularly, but he is scoring goals regularly.

His shots on target per 90 ratio isn’t as high as the likes of Joel Piroe, Crysencio Summerville, or even Georginio Rutter, but he is improving as the season goes on, to the extent that his bigger price is now probably the best value in the Leeds shots on target offering.

The issue for Watford is that Leeds don’t give up many shots on target. However, Emmanuel Dennis has shown a real spark since returning to Vicarage Road. He has the individual quality to breach Leeds’ defence and he is averaging well over a shot on target per game for Watford.

His price does reflect that data, but there is still room for growth in those numbers as Dennis continues to get used to the system and playing consistently again.

This market all hinges on the difference that is made between home and away form in the corners market.

There is no team in the Championship with the corner variance of Watford in the league this year. They have a very strong record for corners at home, only Southampton can better Watford 6.95 corners won per game at home, and they keep their opponents down too. Again it is only one team, Leeds in this case, who keep their opponents down lower than Watford’s average of 3.21 per match.

Leeds themselves actually concede more corners than they earn on the road, and by a decent margin – 4.63-6.42 on average.

It may be that Watford frustrate Leeds in this match and Leeds have to come on strong to dominate the match, which usually does lead to more corners, but there is also every chance that Leeds could score early and Watford have more licence to take the game to their visitors at home under new management.

At the prices, the Hornets are worth supporting in this area.

So often the fouls market in Leeds matches surrounds one man, Georginio Rutter. No player in the Championship has more than the combined foul total of the young Frenchman, he has been fouled 92 times in 34.5 90s and he has also committed 57 fouls in that time.

He is getting too short to add into the fouls market himself, but opponents who could foul him seem a good price. Ismael Kone is perhaps a bit too forward-thinking to be up against Rutter that many times, but with both players dropping back often he is a decent price here.

Kone does average comfortably more than a foul a game regardless of his opponents so it looks like a good leg on a bet builder.

Gnonto has been mentioned for his shooting prowess but he is another Leeds forward with a high foul ratio, almost 2 fouls per 90 minutes at the moment.