This bet would have landed in all but 1 of Luton’s away games this season, with just 1 win to their names from 16 away league outings.

That win came all the way back in September, they are now 13 away league games without a win. To compound that, they are 12 games without a win in any competition, home or away. That run looks set to continue here.

Watford are averaging 5.4 corners per game at home this season, while conceding 4.5 per home outing.

Luton have won 4.8 corners per game but conceded 5.6 away from home this season. They have lost their last 3 corner match bets away from home, while Watford have won or drawn 3 of their last 4 corner battles at home – despite losing all 4 of these matches.

The Hornets average 2.3 cards per home game this season, while Luton’s opposition away from home average 1.9 cards per game.

They will be desperate to put right their recent home form, not to mention avenging the 3-0 thumping they took at Kenilworth Road earlier in the season. This selection has won in 4 of Watford’s last 5 league matches.

The rivalry in this game is intense, with Luton carrying the added edge of scrapping for survival. Matt Bloomfield is still trying to win over the fans since his appointment, and being a disciple of Gareth Ainsworth, I can see him sending his players out wound up for this one.

Luton average 2.8 cards per away game, whilst Watford’s opponents at home average 2.2 card per game. Luton received 3 cards in the reverse fixture.

Despite Watford’s poor recent home form, you have to make then favourites to beat a Luton side with a dismal away record. This has showed no signs of improvement under Matt Bloomfield with 1 draw and 2 losses. They’ve had just 5 shots on target across those 3 games.

There’s no getting away from Watford’s performances of late at home, conceding 2 xG or more in their last 3 home games, but that away win over Boro last time out, which was deserved on chances created, will have provided a shot in the arm. Luton present a much lesser task than a few home fixtures the Hornets have had of late.

While we think Watford will win the corner count here, they may not need to register a high number of corners to do so. This selection would have won in 76% of Watford’s games this season, as well as in 85% of Luton’s games (opponents numbers).

Luton’s opposition have only been awarded 7 or more corners in 1 of their last 9 games.

Louza is picking up a card on average every 3 to 4 90’s. He has played 90 minutes in 7 of the last 8 starts he has made.

He is without a card in his last 3 games, which means he is probably due one, and a local derby looks a good place to keep that record going.

Despite not being shown a card in the last 3 games, he has committed 6 fouls across his last 3 matches. He’ll be up against Thelo Aasgaard here who has been fouled 7 times in 4 appearances so far for Luton.

Morris missed Luton’s midweek home game with Plymouth through illness but has since trained and is back in contention for this one, you would expect him to start as the Hatters’ leading scorer.

Morris has 7 goals and 6 cards to his name this season, with one or the other occurring in 11 of the 29 matches he has featured in. The expected feistiness of this game brings the card into play, whilst Watford’s identified weakness from set pieces could play into Morris’ hands in front of goal.