To kick start our bet builder, I’m taking the Baggies on the road to have 3 or more shots on Daniel Bachmann’s goal. Watford have allowed 3+ shots on target in 8 of their last 10. Only Norwich with 11 shots and none on target + Blackpool in 23rd failed to reach 3+. Blackpool managed 2 themselves and have only had 11 SOT in their last 5 games. A side like West Brom, with playoff aspirations, will be hoping to have far more. Aside from a nightmare showing at Birmingham which saw them have 3 shots for 0.04 xG, West Brom have had 5, 2, 6, 7, 10, 4, 9 and 4 SOT in their recent games. With Watford’s midfield issues, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jed Wallace tuck inside and have at least one of the 3 we need.

Both these sides have seen 14 goals in their last 6 games, scoring and conceding 7 showing their recent defensive fragility. The Hornets have been conceding a high xG on the regular recently, conceding over 1 in their last 5 (2.3, 1.14, 1.88, 2.79, 1.54). These numbers have also come against the likes of Rotherham, Reading and Blackburn who all scored against Watford despite ranking in the bottom 8 in the form table while averaging a goal or less per game.

West Brom should be able to counter this, having notched up 2.31 xG in their last game. In that game, Blackburn registered 1.71 xG and managed to score meaning that BTTS landed for Blackburn against both West Brom and Watford’s defence despite only landing in 1 of the other 4 fixtures surrounding these games for Blackburn. With Watford likely to play a 4-2-3-1, West Brom will struggle to adapt, having failed to keep a clean sheet against this formation. The Golden Boys themselves have only kept one clean sheet against this formation and with the attacking riches on show at this level, I like both teams to find the back of the net.

On loan from Aston Vila, Keinan Davis has made the number 9 position his own, shown by Vakoun Bayo being loaned to Charleroi and Rey Manaj’s contract being terminated. Davis is struggling to find the back of the net recently, but the signs are there as he creates scoring opportunities regularly. He also prefers Vicarage Road with 80% of his goal contributions coming in front of the home fans.

Davis averages 2.13 shots per game at home but pivotally he hits the target at an astounding rate. His 55.6% accuracy at home would only trail Chuba Akpom and Oli McBurnie overall. No team has had less than 8 shots against West Brom since the first game of the new year with most teams averaging well over 10 in that period, showing West Brom aren’t afraid to drop off and allow the shot. When Davis has such a high accuracy, 1+ shot on target feels inevitable.

There’s something about Vicarage Road and cards this season. Watford have had 47 cards against in 15 home games at an astounding 3.13 per game, almost enough to land this selection without even considering that Watford average the 4th most home cards with 2.07 per game. The Hertfordshire side feature many card candidates with both Kamara and Choudhury just two cards away from suspension while Gaspar is starting to tire with his age at this level. The addition of Porteous and Hoedt provides two heavy card candidates through the middle which anyone who watched Watford Burnley could see.

The Baggies themselves average 3.46 cards in their away games and have seen both teams carded in every away game this season. Facing off against such a card heavy side in Watford these numbers should vastly increase. Jayson Molumby has the most cards for West Brom this season and facing off against the star man Joao Pedro should be an intriguing matchup for a card.

Referee Tim Robinson has shown 4.21 cards per game in the championship this season and has taken charge of both of these sides before. He showed 4 cards in Reading v West Brom and was card happy in Watford v Swansea, dishing out 8.