Brighton v Tottenham

An out of sorts Brighton side face another tough challenge as Antonio Conte’s Spurs travel to the South Coast looking to maintain their impressive goal scoring form against a leaky Brighton back line.

Conte’s men fell victim to a Cristiano Ronaldo masterclass on Saturday in the Premier League as the Portuguese icon netted his first hat trick since his return to the Prem. Spurs played fairly well at Old Trafford seeing 57% of the ball and matching United’s shot count. Despite 3-2 defeat, there was another goal for England skipper Harry Kane, taking his tally to 6 from the last 5 games in addition to a world class assist at Leeds.

Spurs have found a superb balance going forward with Kulusevski, Son and Kane. Son and Kane have combined for 37 goals at Spurs, overtaking Drogba and Lampard for the record and Kulusevski’s addition requires attention down the right, giving Spurs a superb front 3. When Kulusevski has started down the right, Spurs have scored 14 in 4 games

Since being knocked out the FA Cup 3-1 by Spurs, Brighton have lost 5 of 6, only beating relegation side Watford and conceding 2 or more in every game they’ve lost. The loss of Adam Webster since United cannot be underestimated and losing Dan Burn at a similar time is causing Potter a selection headache defensively, struggling to settle on either back 3 or a back 4. Webster shouldn’t be rushed back for this fixture, creating more opportunities for Spurs.

Bright have shipped 2 or more goals in their last 5 games, lost their last 5 and conceded an xG of almost 5 across their last two games. None of these numbers suggest defensive stability and with Spurs in form particularly going forward I think they score a few tonight. I’m surprised to see Spurs over 1.5 Goals at such long odds of 2.38 and see immense value here.

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Arsenal v Liverpool

A clash at the top of the table pits top 4 hopefuls and in form Arsenal against the ever electric Liverpool, with both sides coming into this game off the back of 2-0 wins, showing defensive resilience.

Recently this fixture has been very in favour of Liverpool with Arsenal failing to score in their last 5 against Liverpool, including 3 meetings this season. However, their form recently across all competitions has been excellent, winning 5 on the bounce, similar to Liverpool.

In this game I am taking BTTS – NO as two of the best defensive units in the league face off the second best home defence and the 4^th best away unit led by Virgil Van Dijk. Significant team news could see Mohammed Salah dropped to the bench through injury, meaning we see a new look front 3 with Jota, Diaz and Mane. This could provide Arsenal with optimism that they can hold off a usually unstoppable attack and settle for a point.

A point for Arsenal would be superb here, cementing their place in the top 4 and give them a cushion of two points over United with two games in hand. BTTS has landed in two of their past six home games while Liverpool have kept 4 away clean sheets in 5. The losses of Salah and still possibly Smith-Rowe’s absence is two key attacking issues which should boost defensive confidence and the possibly of BTTS – No at such good odds.

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Everton v Newcastle

3 away wins in 4 preceded Newcastle’s 1-0 defeat away Chelsea but their defeat at Stamford Bridge was only the result of Jorginho and Kai Havertz late brilliance. Before that Chelsea game, Newcastle were unbeaten in 9 before the Chelsea game and narrowly dropping points to third place in the table shouldn’t deter Eddie Howe’s man in what should be a routine performance today.

Their hosts, Everton have picked up just 9 points since September and are in serious danger of relegation as the managerial change isn’t proving to be successful. Under Lampard, it can be argued that Everton have regressed, particularly going forward averaging just 2.8 SOT per game with 10 of those coming in a single game against Leeds.

Everton have lost over half their games at home and their home form only looks respectable after 3 wins to start the season, against Norwich, Burnley and Saints, all notoriously poor travelling sides. Since then, Everton have been outscored on xG in almost every game and picked up points just 3 times. The heart of Everton’s problem has been going forward where Everton have scored in one of their last 4 home games to Leeds, the worst defensive side in the league.

Newcastle strayed from Howe’s usual 4 back system to a 5-4-1 at Chelsea but with Saint-Maximin back from injury I expect Howe to revert back to his 4 back to get the best out of his attackers, a strategy which has proved so beneficial in their unbeaten run. In a game where they are the better side and in far better form, I’m tempted by Newcastle at odds of 3.0 but double chance seems a safer tip.

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