West Brom’s defensive strength is what has helped them into their current position. They have the third best goals against record in the league, and they have only conceded 11 times in 16 home matches.

It is certainly no fluke either, their xG conceded record is also third best in the league with only Leicester and Leeds in a better position.

The Baggies’ attacking output has never matched up to their defence. However, the numbers are improving, with goals scored now into the top ten in the Championship, though xG created is still only 12th.

Southampton have the opposite problem to West Brom, in that their attacking metrics have always been very strong, but their defensive record sometimes leaves a bit to be desired. However, they have just gone 24 matches undefeated, so Russell Martin’s system has certainly been working for the Saints.

It has been more difficult on the road for Southampton than at home. They have scored 22 in 16 away matches, and conceded 20. Their home goal difference is +21 compared to the +2 away and they are overperforming their xG, though not by a huge amount and a touch of overperformance is probably expected with elite finishers in the squad.

There could well be an element of West Brom playing a compact system and trying to frustrate and hit Southampton on transition here, even though West Brom are at home.

The defensive strength of West Brom at home makes this market quite a tricky one to assess.

Alex Palmer in goal for West Brom has been one of the least busy goalkeepers in the league, having made fewer saves than anyone other than Illan Meslier, and this is due to the solidity of the shape that Carlos Corberan applies.

However, Adam Armstrong is pretty irrepressible at this level. The former Blackburn forward, who turned 27 this week, is one of only three regular starters who average over one shot on target and is actually on his most trigger-happy run of the season in terms of shots, with 16 in his last four matches.

There is no one else in the Southampton line-up that is as reliable to shoot as Armstrong, and with him being Southampton captain and consistently playing 90 minutes, he is the best candidate for a bet builder leg in this market.

From a West Brom perspective, the most reliable source of shots in their team is their centre-forward, Brandon Thomas-Asante. He is the only regular WBA player averaging over one shot on target per 90, by a long way ahead of his team-mates too.

Southampton are the more likely foulers in this game. West Brom’s tactics of remaining in shape make them less likely to commit a foul than a team that press and try to win the ball back quickly.

Che Adams is a fairly prolific fouler in this method, trying to close down the opposition. Also, he is the one most likely to be aimed at with direct play, so can get himself involved in aerial duels that can be picked out for fouls by some referees.

Conor Townsend holds a bit of value in this market. He is yet to be booked this season, but collects his fair share of fouls. Up against Southampton’s dynamic wide forwards Townsend is going to have his hands full and could easily give at least one foul away at a pretty decent price.