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West Brom v Southampton Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

West Brom v Southampton Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Thursday 15 February, 20242 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...

West Brom v Southampton

📅
Kick Off: Friday 16th February at 20:00
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Competition: Championship
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Football

The Championship gets underway this weekend with West Brom v Southampton on Friday evening. Our football coverage this weekend includes EFL betting predictions and EFL accumulator tips. We also have plenty of non-EFL content, with a huge range of football tips and expert betting predictions to help you craft yourself a winner this weekend.

Before you place your bets though, make sure to browse our carefully curated selection of free bets and all of the best bookmaker offers to make your money work for you.

Both teams reside in the play-off positions after Southampton finally lost their long unbeaten run in midweek. This allowed Leeds to jump into the automatic promotion places, albeit Southampton can regain 2nd place with a win here.

West Brom are in a bit of a strange hinterland. They have been situated in 5th for quite a while, and are favourites to stay there too as they have a bit of a gap in points, and probably quality as well, to the top four, and a smaller difference to the chasing pack behind them.

The Baggies do have some consistency to them, they've only lost back-to-back games once in the Championship this season, and have recorded more clean sheets than any other team as well. This should give them a good chance of maintaining their position in the league.

Southampton will no doubt be prepared to get straight back on the horse and get winning again. The route straight back to the Premier League is still in their hands as they have a game in hand on Leeds two points above them.

The strength in depth of the Saints squad is pretty incredible for the second tier, but they will be more than aware, after Tuesday's result, that there are plenty of teams that have enough quality to threaten them over 90 minutes.

The performance data and information gathered throughout the season can also help us to produce a shrewd bet builder.

West Brom v Southampton Cheat Sheet

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This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.

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You can find West Brom v Southampton match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.

🏆 Match stats: Southampton the stronger attacking unit of the pair

West Brom’s defensive strength is what has helped them into their current position. They have the third best goals against record in the league, and they have only conceded 11 times in 16 home matches. It is certainly no fluke either, their xG conceded record is also third best in the league with only Leicester and Leeds in a better position. The Baggies’ attacking output has never matched up to their defence. However, the numbers are improving, with goals scored now into the top ten in the Championship, though xG created is still only 12th. Southampton have the opposite problem to West Brom, in that their attacking metrics have always been very strong, but their defensive record sometimes leaves a bit to be desired. However, they have just gone 24 matches undefeated, so Russell Martin’s system has certainly been working for the Saints. It has been more difficult on the road for Southampton than at home. They have scored 22 in 16 away matches, and conceded 20. Their home goal difference is +21 compared to the +2 away and they are overperforming their xG, though not by a huge amount and a touch of overperformance is probably expected with elite finishers in the squad. There could well be an element of West Brom playing a compact system and trying to frustrate and hit Southampton on transition here, even though West Brom are at home.

Predictions:

⚽ West Brom double chance @ 1.53

🎯 Shooting stats: Big chances could be hard to come by

The defensive strength of West Brom at home makes this market quite a tricky one to assess. Alex Palmer in goal for West Brom has been one of the least busy goalkeepers in the league, having made fewer saves than anyone other than Illan Meslier, and this is due to the solidity of the shape that Carlos Corberan applies. However, Adam Armstrong is pretty irrepressible at this level. The former Blackburn forward, who turned 27 this week, is one of only three regular starters who average over one shot on target and is actually on his most trigger-happy run of the season in terms of shots, with 16 in his last four matches. There is no one else in the Southampton line-up that is as reliable to shoot as Armstrong, and with him being Southampton captain and consistently playing 90 minutes, he is the best candidate for a bet builder leg in this market. From a West Brom perspective, the most reliable source of shots in their team is their centre-forward, Brandon Thomas-Asante. He is the only regular WBA player averaging over one shot on target per 90, by a long way ahead of his team-mates too.

Predictions:

⚽ Adam Armstrong to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.50

⚽ Adam Armstrong to have 2+ shots on target @ 3.30

⚽ Brandon Thomas-Asante to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.73

🛑 Fouls stats: Forward players underrated in the fouls market

Southampton are the more likely foulers in this game. West Brom’s tactics of remaining in shape make them less likely to commit a foul than a team that press and try to win the ball back quickly. Che Adams is a fairly prolific fouler in this method, trying to close down the opposition. Also, he is the one most likely to be aimed at with direct play, so can get himself involved in aerial duels that can be picked out for fouls by some referees. Conor Townsend holds a bit of value in this market. He is yet to be booked this season, but collects his fair share of fouls. Up against Southampton’s dynamic wide forwards Townsend is going to have his hands full and could easily give at least one foul away at a pretty decent price.

Predictions:

⚽ Che Adams to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.22

⚽ Che Adams to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.10

⚽ Conor Townsend to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.80

⚽ Conor Townsend to commit 2+ fouls @ 4.50

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