England v Senegal
England eventually won their group with relative comfort and plenty to spare. They had two very good wins vs Iran (6-2) and Wales (3-0) and sandwiched in between was a much criticised 0-0 vs USA. A lot does depend which version of England turns up on the day and the XI selection here will be crucial.
Gareth Southgate has proven himself to be an excellent tournament manager and England have been in this sort of situation before as a strong favourite. Southgate ringed the changes vs Wales but several who came into the side impressed which might now lead towards a selection headache.
Marcus Rashford bagged a brace which took his tournament tally up to three. There will be a strong temptation for him to keep his spot on the right wing although Bukayo Saka didn’t do much wrong in the first two games. Phil Foden also scored when given a start, but Raheem Sterling is one of Southgate’s favourites and could return to the side.
Whichever team takes to the field England will be a strong odds-on favourite. They have massive squad depth and no reported injuries. Ben White has gone back home due to personal reasons but was unlikely to play any minutes anyway.
Senegal meanwhile made it to the knockout stages with a late win over Ecuador. They now face an England who will be in a buoyant mood after beating Wales in their final group game.
Aliou Cisse’s side won 2 of their 3 group games and performed admirably without Sadio Mane. Their talisman was ruled out in the build up to the tournament. They were beaten late by the Netherlands in their opening match but bounced back with 2 victories to secure their place in the last 16.
The Senegal team have great squad harmony and an incredible work ethic without the ball. They have just 39% possession in their crucial group game against Ecuador. However, they still managed to create more significant chances than their opponents. They will expect England to have the lion share of possession on Sunday and will look to be incisive when the opportunity does arise for them to attack.
There will be a lot of nerves coming into this match. The knockout stages can bring out the tentative side of both teams. However, I expect England to have the quality to beat Senegal quite comfortably. An early goal for Southgate’s side could spell disaster for the Lions of Teranga.
England did need penalty kicks to prevail the last time they were in the last 16 of the World Cup, 4 years ago vs Colombia. It was another occasion in which they scored the first goal but were eventually pegged back. England can sometimes be too passive and negative if they get their noses ahead with Southgate preferring to game-manage the situation.
Last year, England beat Germany 2-0 in the last 16 of the Euros 2020 Tournament, and they have a lot of experience with this sort of situation. England will likely control the game and have a huge amount of possession. They might have to be patient for a while but eventually their class should be a difference maker.
It would be surprising if England captain Harry Kane is kept out of the goals for much longer. He was in a similar situation in Euro 2020 last summer and then popped up with a goal in the last 16 vs Germany. He is hungry for goals and will be keen to make his mark. Incredibly, in two of his three group games Kane didn’t even have a shot on target.
I cannot see that continuing as this competition gets towards the business end. I think it is best to back Kane to score OR assist because he has looked in fantastic creative mode so far. His positioning is often much deeper or wider compared to normal and we know his vision is excellent. I suspect he will find a way onto the scoresheet soon, even if it’s only from the penalty spot. At a decent price of 1.67 I think Kane is worth backing to either score or assist because big players usually up their game when the stakes are more serious. He’s already had three assists at this World Cup, which bodes well.
This bet narrowly missed out on winning in each of the last two games, but I expect Stones to go close to the 100 attempted pass mark here. He had a massive 119 passes vs Iran in the first group game, 89 vs USA and then 84 vs Wales in the most recent fixture. At halftime in that game, he looked nailed on to attempt at least 90 but England played with a lot more freedom in the second half and opted to be more direct with the ball.
I would fully expect the Three Lions to have a minimum 60% possession here, maybe more and close to the 70% mark. Senegal probably won’t press England that hard, so the defence and midfield will likely be able to move the ball around readily with ease. Stones will not go as direct compared to Harry Maguire so is usually the better option to ultimately attempt more passes. Barring injury, he will be on the field for the full match, and I would expect him to be involved a lot.
Sarr scored his first game of the tournament from the penalty spot against Ecuador. The lively wide player plays his club football in England and will be keen to impress against them.
Ismailla Sarr is averaging 2.6 shots and 0.9 shots on target per game for Watford in his favoured left wing position this season.
Sarr has had a shot on target in Senegal’s last 2 matches. He failed to have a shot on target against the Netherlands but he did have 3 shots in that game. One of those was bound for goal but it was blocked by Virgil Van Dijk.England have looked solid so far but they have still be conceding shots. The conceded 8 shots against Iran, 10 against USA and 7 against Wales. If Senegal fall behind, Sarr should get the opportunity to have an effort at goal in a bid to get his team back in the game.
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