Bet Builders

I think Denmark will prove too strong for what is a struggling Scotland side on Friday night. The Danes have suffered just one defeat across their last 11 matches at home, with that solitary loss coming against star-studded Spain.

What’s more, the Red and Whites reigned supreme in each of the other 10 fixtures across that 11-game stretch, including a 1-0 win over Portugal in a Nations League quarter-final tie earlier this year.

As for Scotland, they have given the Tartan Army very little to cheer about since qualifying for Euro 2024, triumphing in just three of their 11 competitive fixtures since arriving at last summer’s showpiece.

Steve Clarke’s side were relegated to Nations League Group B earlier this year after suffering a humbling 3-0 defeat to Greece in the second leg of a play-off tie.

The apathy towards the national team intensified when Iceland swept Scotland aside 3-1 in a friendly fixture at Hampden back in June, and a continuation of the decline looks likely in the Danish capital.

While I would expect Scotland to come up short on Friday night, they are more than capable of contributing to the scoring in Copenhagen. Steve Clarke’s side have scored at least once in eight of their last 10 matches across all competitions.

Across that 10-game sample, Scotland have scored away from home against the likes of Portugal, Poland and Greece, which suggests that they may be able to record a consolation strike here. 

As mentioned, Denmark boast a strong home record, however they have not been accustomed to keeping clean sheets in front of their own supporters in recent times. In fact, the Red and Whites have failed to silence their opponents in five of their last 11 assignments on home soil.

Finland, Kazakhstan, Slovenia and Northern Ireland have all made the net bulge on their respective visits to this venue over the last couple of years, so I would fancy Scotland to follow suit. 

I would be surprised if we don’t see a minimum of nine match corners on Friday night. Denmark posted some eye-catching team corner totals during their home matches in the Nations League, earning six, eight and seven across their contests with Switzerland, Serbia and Spain in the Danish capital, with two of those three matches breaking the over 8.5 corners barrier.

What’s more, there were a combined total of 13 corners when Denmark played host to Portugal in a Nations League quarter-final tie earlier this year. 

Despite being relegated from Nations League Group A, Scotland racked up some noteworthy corner totals, particularly away from home. The Scots managed to earn six corners away at Portugal and then five when taking on Poland in Warsaw, not to mention they managed to win five corners when facing Denmark at this venue during a qualifier for the 2022 World Cup.

With all that in mind, both teams look well placed to contribute to a flag kick count of nine or more on Friday night.

Scott McTominay will likely be Scotland’s danger man again in the Danish capital on Friday night. The 28-year-old is a hugely important figure for Scotland, and in true talismanic style, he is known to pop up with crucial goals for his country.

In fact, 11 of McTominay’s 12 strikes on the international stage have arrived across his previous 24 outings for Scotland, the most recent of which was against Greece away from home earlier this year. 

As such, McTominay looks well worthy of support to register a minimum of one shot on target here - something that he has managed in eight of his last 11 appearances for Scotland.

It’s also worth noting that McTominay has been Scotland’s designated penalty taker in recent times, and that only adds to the appeal of siding with him to hit the target at least once against a Denmark side that are not exactly renowned for being watertight at the back.

I have never really been the biggest Calvin Ridley fan, but this year I’m finally on board in the perfect situation. He has been in the league for a sneakily long time, and despite not being a league-dominating alpha WR, he’s been consistently good in the WR1 role. This will be especially important for a rookie gunslinger like Cam Ward to depend on. 

Even with some inconsistent performances over the last two seasons, with some pretty rough play-callers manning the helm, he’s still posted back-to-back 1000-yard seasons without missing a game. This should be the most lively offense he’s played for in years, behind a new quarterback and coaching staff. 

Last year, they tailored his role a bit to the genius that is Will Levis, showing off more of his big-play ability. He led the league in air yards and ranked third in deep targets. While this sustained his fantasy production with deep plays, he missed a lot of the standard underneath WR1 production because Levis and the Titans just weren't successful in those shorter yardage situations. Now that he has someone who should be able to hit all quadrants of the field, we won't just need to rely on deep balls anymore. 

Ridley also posted a pretty awesome 121 targets last year, but only ended up bringing down 53% of those, thanks to Mr. Levis throwing those passes. He had more fantasy production left on the field than any WR in football last year, so it should be easy to improve on that, assuming Ward can be at least mediocre. Van Jefferson and Tyler Lockett are beyond dust, leaving him with minimal competition. The only person I have some hope for is day 3 rookie  Elic Ayomanor, who could be another good sleeper. 

Beyond the talent, there is nothing but opportunity in Tennessee. The rushing game will need to lean on Tony Pollard, and without Tajee Spears or a very stable offensive line, I have trouble believing they will be a very high-volume rushing team. Now, combine that with the fact that they are only projected to win 5 games, and I would expect plenty of trailing game scripts where they are forced to throw the ball even more than they might want to. 

Every place Cam Ward has been a quarterback, he has been a gunslinger. While the first time most people bet on him was in Miami, I’ve placed bets (technically DFS entries) on him dating back to the air raid offenses he operated for Incarnate Word and Washington State. He is comfortable throwing the ball a lot, and this is now the best receiver he's ever worked with. I expect Ridley to be peppered with Targets, and I think he overperforms expectations heavily for a career year next season.

While Jordan Mason props are more limited depending on your sportsbook, it’s one of my favorite options in the market. Different books have different options, but any rushing yards longshots up to 1000, or touchdown ladders up to 10 are firmly in play for Mason this season. 

Jordan Mason is my highest owned fantasy best ball player, sitting at around 28% over 50+ lineups drafted. There is a clear difference in the market between where I have him priced vs where most people are at, leaving a prime opportunity to strike.

The first reason is quite simple, the Vikings saw a clear hole in this offense and addressed it the second they had the opportunity to do so. They didn’t wait to see who was available in free agency or who would fall in the draft; they proactively went out and acquired Mason from the 49ers after a great stint replacing CMC before he dealt with injury last year.

Now, what void is he exactly filling? Well, Aaron Jones was one of the least efficient short-yardage backs in the league last year. MIN's -0.42 EPA per rush put them dead last in the NFL in the red zone. Aaron Jones ranked last among RBs in rush yards over expected, success rate, and EPA in the red zone, not numbers you want to see with your starting running back. Sure, he can handle passing downs, but Mason will be the clear short-yardage and redzone back. 

We have also always seen the best versions of Aaron Jones when he has someone to take some of the pressure off, like AJ Dillon. The age cliff is the killer for running backs, and as Aaron Jones gets older and older, it only makes sense to take more of the workload off his back. Last season, they only had Ty Chandler to do that, and I think Mason will have a huge impact on what they want to do. 

Sharp sites have the Vikings' offensive line projected as a top 7 unit, and JJ McCarthy's mobility will give opposing defenses someone to think about. You can’t really stack the box when facing Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson, meaning a guy like Jordan Mason, who was third in rush yards over expectation last year, should continue to be really efficient. I think he can get over both of these numbers with Aaron Jones healthy, but if he continues to miss games like he has in the past, then we have some extreme value here.