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Ollie Watkins ended the 24/25 season as Villa’s top scorer with 17 goals across his 54 appearances in all competitions. This was a slight drop off from the 27 goals he managed for Villa during the 23/24 season, but Watkins remained useful in other areas in registering 14 assists last year, one more than he did the season prior.

Watkins found the target with 40 of his 84 shots last season (48% - 1.38 shots on target per 90). This was the best record of any Villa player last campaign and Watkins was also bright in the most recent head to head clash between the sides at Villa Park in which Villa ran out 4-1 winners.

Watkins scored and provided an assist on that occasion in a man of the match performance. He had five shots overall with the Newcastle backline really struggling to contain the 29 year old who also struck the woodwork twice, indicating that on another day Watkins could have had a hat trick against the Magpies. Watkins is also on penalties for Aston Villa which can offer him another route to the target should Villa be awarded a spot kick. 

I really fancy Villa here, I would also take a look at backing them to win as a single at 2.2. Villa were one of only two sides to lose just one of their 19 home games last season, the other side to do this were the eventual league champions Liverpool, so it is a very impressive record that Villa should look to continue to build on this season.

By contrast, Newcastle ranked 10th in the Premier League for their away record last season and only won eight of their 19 games on the road last term. Villa have won four of the last five head to head meetings between the sides when Villa are the home side which is another bit of evidence to suggest that Unai Emery’s side can get off to a strong start to the season here.

I also think the noise around Newcastle at the moment makes this a very difficult start to the season for Eddie Howe and his side. With the future of Alexander Isak still up in the air, everything around Newcastle just seems a little rotten at the moment with the fans obviously enraged and Isak’s actions having an effect on Newcastle’s pre-season:

Celtic 4-0 Newcastle (L)

Arsenal 3-2 Newcastle (L)

K League All Stars 1-0 Newcastle (L)

Tottenham 1-1 Newcastle (D)

Newcastle 2-2 Espanyol (D)

Newcastle 0-2 Atletico Madrid (L)

Pre-season isn’t the most important factor in the build up to a season, but this is certainly a worrying sign for Newcastle who also started last season slowly. Aston Villa have never drawn a game on the opening weekend of a Premier League season which would suggest that Villa could collect all three points in their season opener.

Aston Villa drew six saves from Nick Pope in this fixture last season, with Unai Emery’s side totalling nine shots on target in total from 23 attempts overall. It is unlikely that we see that same level of dominance in this first game of the season, but Villa are a very impressive side at home and can draw at least three saves from Aaron Ramsdale who is set to make his Newcastle debut.

Aston Villa scored 34 goals across their 19 games at Villa Park last season (1.78 per game) and were generally a much brighter attacking force in front of their home fans. Unai Emery’s side averaged 4.18 shots on target across their 38 Premier League games last term, but this increases to 5.52 shots on target per game when looking specifically at their games at Villa Park - Aston Villa only lost one game at home all season in the 24/25 campaign, further underlining their dominance when playing at Villa Park.

There is a real chance that Newcastle could be overwhelmed at times by Villa’s energy in their home stadium. Eddie Howe has a choice to make in goal having brought in Aaron Ramsdale to compete with Nick Pope. Ramsdale was forced into making 125 saves last season for Southampton (4.17 per 90) so he is more than capable of being a solid shot stopper for the Magpies. 

No side won more fouls in the Premier League last season than Aston Villa (499 - 13.3 per game). This is not surprising when looking at some of the individual players in Villa’s squad. Tielemans, McGinn and Onana are particularly strong in this metric which makes for positive reading when assessing the makeup of Newcastle’s midfield here.

Newcastle committed 12 fouls in this fixture last season, eight of these infringements were made by only two players - Joelinton (3) and Guimaraes (5). This would suggest that Newcastle’s midfield are in for a real test in attempting to contain the midfield for Villa.

One of the reasons that Villa win so many fouls is their rotations in the middle of the park and the final third. This constant rotation makes it difficult for opposition sides to keep track of who they are marking and leads to Villa making precise incisions through the opposition side which can only be stopped by hauling down a Villa man - unsurprisingly Villa also ranked first for the most opposition yellow cards last season (102 - 2.68 per game).

With Morgan Rogers an injury doubt for Aston Villa’s opening game of the season, Watkins stands out as the key player to register a goal contribution for Aston Villa here. Watkins was exceptional in this fixture last season and caused Burn and Schar all sorts of problems as the Newcastle centre back duo struggled to contain Watkins resulting in the forward recording a goal and assist in the game.

Watkins has been performing at an elite level for the last three seasons so there is no reason to believe that he cannot replicate his numbers from the last few campaigns in this upcoming season. Watkins registered 31 goal contributions across his 54 appearances in all competitions for Aston Villa last season, building on the 40 goal contributions he registered the season prior - that campaign remains his best season performance.

Watkins should be able to make the most of the issues that have been facing off the field with the Alexander Isak saga set to roll through the first weekend of the season. This has had an impact on Newcastle’s pre-season preparations with Eddie Howe’s side failing to win any of their pre-season friendlies. It should be noted that there was similar discontent surrounding Newcastle at the start of last season which led to a very sluggish start to the season by the Magpies.

I can see Joelinton getting really frustrated here, in fairness it doesn’t take a lot for the Brazilian to lose his cool but there are a few factors here which can contribute to Joelinton picking up a caution here.

Joelinton picked up 10 yellow cards across his 29 Premier League appearances last season while averaging 2.17 fouls committed per 90 - a really promising foul record when looking to back a player to pick up a card. Joelinton picked up six yellow cards across 15 starts in the 23/24 season and also received 12 yellow cards across his 30 starts in the 22/23 campaign so this is a consistent part of Joelinton’s game which is worth paying attention to.

Joelinton will be up against a dynamic midfield which includes Youri Tielemans (1.66 per 90) and John McGinn (2.78 fouls won per 90). Villa were the most fouled side in the Premier League last season, averaging 13.3 fouls won per game in the top flight which is further evidence to suggest that Joelinton will overstep the mark here.

Building from that Joelinton selection, Tielemans could very well find himself in the wars in this opening game of the Premier League season. Tielemans averaged 1.66 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League last term, but there is ample evidence to suggest that this will rise here up against the most combative midfield trio in the Premier League in Tonali, Guimaraes and Joelinton.

We’ve already covered Joelinton’s antics, but Guimaraes and Tonali can be just as reckless with their challenges, especially against a dynamic Villa midfield which features plenty of rotations. Newcastle committed 12 fouls in this fixture last season with eight of them coming from Joelinton and Guimaraes - who were both shown yellow cards.

Tielemans was on the end of three of those challenges as the player who looks to connect the backline and attack for Villa, making him a prime target for fouls. Tielemans was fouled more than any other player on the pitch and also won more duels than any other player (11) which suggests that he can hold his own physically against Newcastle’s aggressive trio.

Cherki should be in line to start here for Manchester City seeing as Foden is a doubt for the opening game of the season. I’m really excited to see Cherki in the Premier League this season and playing for City should see a slight increase in his shot average from last season, which was already pretty promising.

Cherki is primarily a creative player, but his goal threat increased massively last season which is probably what tempted Pep Guardiola to pick up the highly sought after 21 year old. Cherki scored 12 goals for Lyon last season, the highest goal tally of his professional career so far.

Cherki had 45 shots across his 22 starts in Ligue 1 for Lyon last season (1.98 per 90) with 19 of these attempts finding the target (0.84 per 90). Cherki should see a rise in his shot numbers this season seeing as City are one of the most dominant sides in the Premier League and averaged 15.97 shots per game in the Premier League last season, only Liverpool (17.05) averaged more shots per game than Pep Guardiola’s side last season.

We’ve already had a taste of what Cherki can offer this Manchester City side through their involvement in the Club World Cup. Cherki scored and had four shots across his 121 minutes in the competition, with three of these attempts finding the target. 

While questions remain about Manchester City at the back, we can expect the Cityzens to be their usual free scoring selves this season, starting at Molinuex. City scored two goals in this fixture last season and scored two or more goals in 22 of their 38 matches (57.8%).

Manchester City remained the top scorers at home last season which shows just how strong their attacking setup is, with Pep further reinforcing it during the summer transfer window. It appears as though Pep is setting up his side to once again get the most out of Erling Haaland who scored 30% of Manchester City’s Premier League goals last season.

Pep Guardiola’s side are still a bit shaky at the back and the continued absence of Rodri in this early part of the season may make it a bit risky to back Manchester City to come away with a positive result, especially seeing as we don’t know how City will react to such a disappointing campaign last season.

Wolves were far too open at the back last season, they conceded 69 goals across their 38 Premier League matches (1.81 per game) with only the three relegated sides conceding more goals than the Wanderers. 32 of these goals were conceded at home (1.68 per game).

Gomes was fouled in both head to head meetings between these sides last season and boasts a promising fouls won record when looking across his numbers from last season as a whole.

Gomes is usually associated with his foul committed numbers, he’s priced at 1.1 to commit a foul here and still under 2.0 for two fouls, so it makes more sense to find some value with him in this market. Gomes won 47 fouls across his 36 Premier League appearances last season (1.42 per 90) with the 24 year old showing real tenacity in the middle of the park for Wolves which is a style that is perfectly suited to the Premier League.

When it comes to situations where Gomes could win a foul here, City are likely to continue to leave a lot of space in behind when trying to break through what we can anticipate will be a Wolves low block. This should result in situations where Wolves look to get the ball forward quickly in moments of transition, with Gomes also having a real strength for driving with the ball (0.90 successful dribbles per 90) suggesting that he can offer the penetration that Wolves need here on the break, making him a target for City midfielders.

Omar Marmoush made an instant impact after joining Manchester City in the January transfer window from Frankfurt. Marmoush scored seven goals across his 16 Premier League appearances while averaging 3.73 shots per 90 and 1.29 shots on target per 90.

Marmoush already had a really promising shot record prior to joining City with the Egyptian registering 77 shots across his 17 appearances for Frankfurt in the Bundesliga (4.77 per 90) with 36 of these attempts finding the target (2.23).

One aspect of Marmoush’s game which aids our selection is that he takes aim from any angle - 21 of his 49 shots for City in the Premier League last season came from outside of the box (42%) so even if Wolves line up in a nasty low block here, Marmoush should have opportunities to find the target.