Championship Play-Offs Outright Predictions 23/24

Andy Robson
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There are five games remaining in the Championship for 2023/24 with Leeds United, Southampton, West Bromwich Albion and Norwich City battling it out in the play-offs to join Leicester City and Ipswich Town in the Premier League for 2024/25.
Leeds take on Norwich and Southampton face West Brom in the semi-finals with the sides that progress over the two legs, and extra time and penalties if necessary, setting up a play-off final date at Wembley on Sunday 26th May.
We've also included a quick recap of our 2023/24 Championship Outrights winners at the bottom of the page.
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Championship Play-Offs Best Bets
➡️ Leeds to Reach the Final @ 1.40 on Sky Bet
➡️ West Brom Promotion @ 6.50 on Sky Bet
Championship Play-Off History
It is clear to see what the bookmakers think of the four teams in the play-offs, the pricing is very straightforward.
Leeds United and Southampton are both around 2.5-2.63 to be promoted, with Norwich and West Brom around the 6.5 mark.
The question is, is this discrepancy justified?
The history books

Recent history suggests that finishing in 3rd or 4th in the Championship tends to help when trying to win promotion via the play-offs. Seven out of the last nine seasons have seen one of those top two seeds get into the Premier League. Indeed, 5th v 6th in the final has happened only once in the last nine editions of the Championship play-offs, 3rd v 4th has occurred four times in nine.
Digging into the data even more tells us a little more about the form of teams going into the play-offs.

In 2021 and 2022 it would be fair to say that the form team going into the play-offs were the ones who triumphed in the end. It does seem from this sample of the last four years that having a degree of form and confidence going into the play-offs can help, but most teams in the recent past have had some aspect of good form going in.

However, it is interesting to note that, in comparison to previous seasons, there is a real lack of form across the four 2024 play-off contenders. The data suggests, though, that perhaps Leeds and West Brom’s lack of points is not fully representative of their performances.
Head-to-Head Stats and Recent Form
Here is a table of the times that the play-off contenders have played this season. The home side is the team on the same row, on the left.

The team with the best record across the board is Southampton with four wins, two against Leeds, two against West Brom, and two draws with Norwich.
Leeds’ only wins are against Norwich, so it could be good fortune that they play the Canaries in the semi-finals.
West Brom have narrow home wins to Leeds and Norwich, but struggled away from The Hawthorns.

Leeds
Southampton
West Brom
Norwich
Championship Play-Offs Best Bets
As discussed above, the Championship play-off contenders all find themselves in muddled form ahead of the play-off campaign.
Taking form out of the equation, then, which team should be fancied most for the return to the Premier League?
The performance data would suggest that Leeds United should be favourites. They have the best season-long data and the best performances and results against the other top teams in the division. However, the bookmakers are very much aware of this and they are short enough in price.
Norwich come into the play-offs as potentially the weakest team, and it would be a surprise if they could buck the trend of 6th-placed teams reaching the Premier League.
Southampton v West Brom is potentially a tougher semi-final to call. West Brom carry a lot of experience in their group, and a manager who has reached a play-off final before. Southampton are an impressive collection of players, with a strong style, and some really positive data, but West Brom are probably too long in price for this play-off campaign.
Overall, given the prices, West Brom are the value pick for promotion at 6.50 on Sky Bet. They have the potential to keep things very tight, very low margin, and with a manager who has the ability to plot his way through the three matches meticulously. We're also willing to back Leeds to reach the final at 1.40 with Sky Bet, considering the quality gap between them and the Canaries.
Championship Outright Predictions Recap 2023/24
- Leicester City Automatic Promotion @ 3.0 with Sky Bet - tipped in pre-season.
- Ipswich Town Automatic Promotion @ 6.0 with Sky Bet - tipped in pre-season.
- Sammie Szmodics Top Goalscorer @ 2.88 with Sky Bet - tipped in January.
Huddersfield relegation also came in, tipped @ 1.57 in January, while we had near misses in the form of Sheffield Wednesday relegation, tipped pre-season, and Haji Wright Top Goalscorer E/W @ 80/1, which was posted in January.
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* All odds displayed correctly at the time of publishing *
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