Blackpool’s worrying slide down the League One table continued last weekend with a 3-0 away loss to Leyton Orient. They were a clear second-best on xG as well, so it was no hard luck story. That setback means the Tangerines are winless in their past six league encounters and are now closer to the relegation zone than the play-offs. Within this sequence, they’re conceding an average of 2.33 goals.

A quick glance at the league table will show Northampton in 17th, which doesn’t necessarily give a positive reflection on their campaign. However, there is a bigger picture to focus on. They are only three points off 13th and around that area would realistically be as much as Jon Brady’s side could expect in a very competitive league.

Also, a run of just one league defeat in five is a healthy return given they’ve faced the likes of Birmingham, Stockport and Lincoln in this period. Earning a last-gasp draw at Birmingham last Saturday would’ve felt like a victory.

The Cobblers have proved a tough team to beat on the road and have caused a scare on plenty of occasions against the stronger teams. They’ve only failed to score in one away league fixture, plus they’ve been to top-eight teams; Birmingham, Wrexham, Barnsley, Lincoln, Stockport and Huddersfield, and found the back of the net.

Blackpool have kept just two out of a possible 14 league clean sheets themselves. Plenty is pointing towards Saturday’s away team contributing to the goal tally once more.

The standout fixture in League One this weekend undoubtedly comes at Edgeley Park. Stockport and Wrexham were promoted alongside one another out of League Two last season and are already challenging to do the same again into the Championship. It is sixth against third, but there is slight preference in backing the hosts to get a positive outcome.

If this match was played directly after Stockport’s 5-0 home defeat to Wycombe then a different recommendation would’ve been likely! However, the fact they responded to that with a 5-0 win of their own against Bolton is everything you need to know.

This is a team with a real strong mentality. It could also prove to be something of a key marker in County’s season. It hasn’t been plain-sailing to reach the top-six at this stage and winning in such fashion against a strong opponent and rival might just be the boost this team needed.

The slight concern with backing Wrexham is down to their indifferent away record. It is anything but disastrous but they’re certainly inconsistent compared to their near perfect home record. Phil Parkinson’s men are averaging less than a goal a game based on their away league form this season.

It is also hard to ignore the last time Stockport hosted Wrexham last season. The 5-0 theme continues as that was the score on that occasion, meaning the club have lost on their previous three visits to this stadium.

Neither Barrow or AFC Wimbledon come into Saturday’s fixture in great league form. Barrow are five without a win, with all of their last five matches finishing either as 1-0 defeats or 1-1 draws. AFC Wimbledon have lost three of their last four league matches.

AFC Wimbledon (8th) and Barrow (9th) sit next to each other on the expected points table with 22 and 21.1 expected points respectively, although this should be caveated by the fact that AFC Wimbledon have played three matches fewer than Barrow.

It’s not actually these underlying numbers that lead me to this selection for Saturday’s game – it’s the home and away records of the teams involved, plus the prospect of a low margin game.

AFC Wimbledon have the lowest xGA in the division with 9.85. Barrow’s number is impressive also, they have the 5th lowest with 13.54. Just three of Barrow’s eight home matches this season have returned over 2.5 goals, while only one of AFC Wimbledon’s six away matches have seen over 2.5 goals. That’s 71% percent of Barrow home and AFC Wimbledon matches going under the 2.5 goal line.

There’s actually only been 10 goals in AFC Wimbledon’s six away games in total this season and five of them came in one game, at Port Vale.

Wimbledon, again caveated by playing less matches than everyone else, are bottom of the away league table with one win, one draw and four losses to their name. They do keep games low margin though, three of their four defeats have been by and single goal, two of them by a 1-0 scoreline. Even their draw was a goalless one and their solitary victory was a 1-0 scoreline.

Barrow’s home record is the third-best in the league, if it wasn’t for them sitting in 23rd place on the five-game form table they could be fancied more strongly here. But with confidence low, a stronger play is to oppose goals.

Chesterfield lost 3-0 at home to Accrington last weekend in a result that shocked many, but it’s important to not let yourself overreact to surprise scorelines like that. Chesterfield are a good team and the numbers back it up.

Expected points of 26.2 see Chesterfield 3rd in the table. Their actual position of 9th is down to too many draws – seven in 15 matches. Meanwhile, just three defeats to their name is good going. 28 goals scored from an xG of 23.8 is strong, but eighteen goals conceded from an xGA of 15.45 is where the underperformance lays. It’s likely that these draws begin to turn into victories rather than losses as the season progresses.

Strangely, Chesterfield’s away record is far superior than their home record. At home, Chesterfield have W1, D6, L1 – this is where we find six of their seven draws. Again, another reason to think that these can turn into victories over time. Away from home, Chesterfield have W4, D1, L2 and have a +12 goal difference – five better than next best Walsall.

Harrogate, sitting in 20th, have lost their last three league matches and are sliding down towards to relegation zone. Their xGA of 25.15 is the 2nd worst in the league behind just Morecambe and their xG of 14.54 is the 5th lowest in the league.

This is a good team travelling to a poor one. Chesterfield can right the wrongs of last weekend and collect another three points on the road.

Last weekend we backed Swindon to score an away goal at MK Dons because, despite an upturn in results since Scott Lindsey took charge, MK continue to ship goals. Swindon duly obliged and Milton Keynes’ goal conceded numbers now read 1-1-1-2-1-1-1-1-2-1.

It’s worth repeating that the numbers aren’t alarming but the lack of clean sheets is apparent and there’s nothing to suggest that anything is about to change – MK Dons have conceded 17 League Two goals from an xGA of 17.13.

Cheltenham have found some vigour to their play since Michael Flynn shifted from a stodgy 5-3-2 formation to a more vibrant 4-3-3 which is bringing the best out of entertaining wide men Jordan Thomas and Ethan Archer. It’s now 11 matches in all competitions since Cheltenham last failed to register a goal and that run of matches includes two against League One opposition in cup ties.

Cheltenham are over performing their xG by near five goals but that’s because they have shot heavy players capable of scoring from range. They may not have the overall quality to take three points off of MK but they have the attacking prowess to score a goal.

Grimsby are one of League Two’s best talking points of the season so far. They sit 7th in the table (inside the play-off places), they haven’t drawn a league game all season (winning eight and losing seven matches), they have a -6 goal difference and they are 22nd in the expected points table. There’s a lot to get your head around there – not much fits together neatly.

One thing that we can take from Grimsby’s numbers is goals. They have the fifth-worst xGA in the league with 23.67. Their games average 2.93 goals per game. 10 out of Grimsby’s 15 league matches have had over 2.5 goals and Grimsby have failed to score in just one away league game all season – on opening day at Fleetwood.

Only Walsall and AFC Wimbledon have scored more home goals than Newport in League Two this season, while matches at Rodney Parade average 3.29 goals per game. Despite great goals for numbers, only four teams in the league have conceded more away goals than Newport. Just one of Newport’s seven home league matches has seen less than 2.5 goals.

The match outcome is difficult to call but goals shouldn’t be hard to come by here.