This looks a credible chance to bet against Cardiff. The South Wales derby has generally been a happy hunting ground for Swansea over the last decade, and we are happy to take the draw as well as the Swansea win here.

The Championship has become a very difficult league to predict for this weekend because of the sheer number of new managers that we are waiting to see what kind of impact they may have on their new teams. With Cardiff, they made their change much earlier in the season, and Omer Riza, though only confirmed to the end of the season, has expended any “new manager bounce” by this stage, so we already have some decent evidence of his tenure.

On the positive side, results have been better than under Erol Bulut, but there is no clear differentiation in level of performance. Cardiff are actually 5 matches undefeated in all competitions and currently reside outside of the bottom 3, but they haven’t won the xG battle at home in any of their last 4 matches, and only once in their last 7 at home.

Swansea are a better team than Cardiff this season, and though their recent away form isn’t as strong as it has been, with this being a derby match that is less of a concern. They lost at Cardiff last season but were 4 undefeated in away derbies leading into that.

Being able to take the draw with Swansea at the same price as Cardiff would’ve been feels like a slice of value that can’t be turned down here.

This will be Miron Muslic’s first game in charge of Plymouth and the removal of Wayne Rooney appears to have had an immediate effect on the price for goals in Plymouth matches.

However, Muslic is hardly a defensive coach. Whilst he does prefer to play a direct, counter-attacking style, his previous teams haven’t had incredible defensive records, and nor have they been particularly low-scoring. Therefore, it is worth taking on this price for 2 or more goals.

That tally has been beaten in 10 out of 12 league matches at Home Park this season, including Plymouth’s last five in a row.

One may expect QPR to be slightly more circumspect given their manager’s skill of organising a team, this is what Martí Cifuentes did to guide QPR to safety last season, but, indeed, QPR have seen over 1.5 goals in each of their last 9 matches in all competitions.

Michael Frey’s return to the team has been a real benefit to Cifuentes as he adds a real presence to the foreard line that other players can work from.

Those waiting for Blackpool to click into gear continue to sit patiently. The Tangerines are 6 without a win in all competitions inside 90 minutes. Steve Bruce’s side have drawn 4 of those in league action, including to the likes of high-flying Birmingham and Wycombe, but victories are required to propel them into a late play-off push. They’ve been winless since before Christmas.

Expecting to resume winning ways when Huddersfield visit on Saturday might be wishful thinking. This is because Michael Duff’s side are 15 unbeaten in League One and the club is on a real high after just signing Joe Taylor from Luton in a big-money deal. The striker is guaranteed goals at this level and further strengthens their hand regards to promotion.

Both teams are actually quite similar in relation to their attacking output. There is however a big gap on the league table, the main reason being for defensive reasons. Blackpool have conceded almost double the goals of Huddersfield and this is likely to be the difference when they face each other at the weekend. Their xGA is rated just over 9.00 goals worse, plus Huddersfield have conceded the third-least number of shots in League One.

Momentum has somewhat stalled in Frank Lampard’s early Coventry reign. The play-offs looked highly unlikely when he took over the Sky Blues, but after three matches without a win in the league, they are almost an impossibility now.

Despite this, general performance data still indicates that Coventry are a progressive team. They have generated multiple big chances in all but 1 of Lampard’s matches, and have converted in all bar 2 of them as well. However, Lampard has also been unable to completely stem the number of goals conceded as well, as they have also conceded in all bar 2 of the matches in Lampard’s reign.

Bristol City are a highly competent Championship team who are well capable of an away performance of note. The Robins have already beaten Middlesbrough, Norwich, and Preston, as well as getting a credible score draw with Sunderland. This proves that they can get goals in difficult places, indeed, they average over a goal a game on the road.

Importantly, City concede on the road too. They have kept only 2 clean sheets in away matches, conceding double the number of away goals than they have managed at Ashton Gate.

Both teams like to play their football, and they tend to employ different systems from each other as well, which often encourages a more fluid game.

It is the scoring record of each of these teams in their respective home/away situations that is convincing enough to put this forward as an option for the best bets in the league.

Portsmouth are in poor form, but much of that is down to the fact that they have played five of their last six matches away from home. Pompey actually have 16 points from their 11 home matches, compared to 7 points from 14 away games. They also average 1.55 goals per game at home, which includes a 4-0 win at home to Swansea and a 4-1 win at home to Coventry in their last two home league matches.

John Mousinho’s side have still conceded an average of a goal per game at home as well, and Michael Carrick’s Middlesbrough need little invitation to charge through a door that could be ajar.

Indeed, Boro actually have a better goal-to-game ratio away from the Riverside, scoring 23 in 12 Championship away games, almost 2 per match. They have also conceded 17 in the same timeframe, so their away matches average 3.33 goals per game.

Whilst there are concerns in the Teessiders’ fanbase about the immediate future of key forward Emmanuel Latte Lath after reported bids for him, he should still be available for this match at least, and there is plenty of attacking talent around him too.

After a couple of cup ties, Birmingham got back to the bread and butter of league duties when entertaining another fellow League One club still in this season’s FA Cup in Exeter. This clash will be another case of The Blues looking to get another win on the board and try to extend their league at the summit of the standings. Following recent league draws to Blackpool and Stockport, they’ll feel it is important to put another string of victories together in League One.

Further reason for optimism for Chris Davies’ side is that they are still to taste a league loss at home all season. They’ve won 8 and drawn 3 in front of their own supporters, and even those 3 draws have frustrated them, which again should fuel motivation for 3 points on Saturday. They take on an Exeter outfit that did great in the FA Cup last time out but does have back-to-back league losses to their name. Gary Caldwell’s men also have a season record of played 8, drawn 1 and lost 7 return against the current League One top 7. All of those would also contain a minimum of 2 goals.

AFC Wimbledon and Tranmere are two sides with completely different trajectories at present. AFC Wimbledon are positioned inside the promotion chasing pack whilst Tranmere are slipping ever closer towards the League Two relegation zone.

AFC Wimbledon’s form is solid. 5th in the 5 game form table with 10 points from a possible 15. They come into the fixture off the back of single goal margin wins versus Gillingham and Newport. They should have a freshness and vibrancy to them as postponement’s mean they haven’t played since January 2nd.

AFC Wimbledon’s home record is great. They’ve conceded just 9 home goals in 12 matches and have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches at The Cherry Red Records Stadium. And Only runaway league leader Walsall have scored more home goals than AFC Wimbledon’s 22.

Sam Finley’s decision to handle the ball when laying on the floor whilst already on a yellow card tells you all you need to know about Tranmere’s current decision making levels.

Only Morecambe and Carlisle are below Tranmere in the table and Rovers are looking increasingly like the team for the bottom pair to shoot at in the relegation battle. They are bottom of the 5 game form table and have won just 2 of their last 11 matches.

Tranmere have the worst away record in the league with 8 points won and 8 goals scored in 12 matches away from Prenton Park.

The reveres fixture at Tranmere saw AFC Wimbledon run out 2-0 winners. The 2.63 price for AFC Wimbledon to win-to-nil again is tempting but sticking to the match outcome market is our play.

Second from top Crewe travel to second from bottom Morecambe and The Railwaymen can keep their promotion challenge on track by avoiding what would be a surprise defeat.

Crewe are unbeaten in their last 4 matches and sit 7th in the 5 game form table. They’ve only lost 3 times away from home all season and only once since the end of September. Only Walsall, Salford and AFC Wimbledon have conceded fewer away goals than Crewe who on average concede 0.85 goals per away game.

23rd place Morecambe have gained 6 points from their last possible 15. However, the 2 wins have come against Tranmere and Carlisle – the 2 teams directly above and below them in the league table. Their home record this season is shocking having won just once at the Mazuma Stadium in 11 matches with the worst home goals conceded number in the league. The home win was versus Tranmere on New Year’s Day – they had gone through August, September, October, November and December without winning 3 home points.

Crewe aren’t the most goal heavy team away from home – average 1 goal scored per away match and they have a tendency for draw, 6 out of 13 away matches. With that in mind it’s best to go with the conservative approach of Crewe avoiding defeat rather than going all in on an away win.