Using my card sheet I have picked the two most attractive looking games for bookings in the UEFA Europa League tonight as we pay visits to Marseille and Naples. I have selected my six favourite players to get into the referees notebook this evening backed up with plenty of stats and research.
Napoli v Spartak Moscow
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Thursday 30th September – 5:45PM Kick Off
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Referee – I. Kružliak averages 5.8 yellows per domestic game & 6.3 in Europe over in the past 2 seasons
Now, Napoli v Spartak looks an absolute belter for cards. It is to be officiated by the card happy Slovak Ivan Kružliak who has a reputation around Europe for being a little whistle happy and not afraid to pull out the notepad early doors. You can see from the graphic he averages a hefty 5.8 yellow cards per game domestically and even more when officiating in Europe at 6.3. This game also stands out as one where I expect plenty of fireworks with a number of players catching my eye on the cards sheet. I have made a note and done some extra research on a couple of players who I fancy in particular; you can see them listed below.
Mario Rui to be Booked
I have read a couple of articles this afternoon on the Portuguese fullback. There are Napoli fan forums basically saying how they can’t believe he is still at the football club. He was apparently very close to a move to Turkey this summer but a move to Galatasaray fell through at the last minute which many of the Nepalese faithful were very disappointed about. He has reportedly turned his form around somewhat and started the season relatively well but his clumsiness and rashness in the tackle remain.
His stats support this, he has a very impressive career average of 0.31 YCPG and that goes up to 0.34 when playing in Europe. He is likely to come up against the dangerous Victor Moses who out of any player in the Spartak Moscow squad unsurprisingly draws the most fouls at 2.00 per game. His other potential opponent is Zelimkhan Bakaev who is also one of the most fouled players in the squad with an average of 1.3 fouls drawn per game. Rui has a mightily impressive 85 career cards to date and looks a belter of a pick especially when you consider his potential opponents this evening and the referee in charge tonight who is prolific with the cards.
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Mario Rui to be Shown a Card v Spartak Moscow @ 2.80 at Paddy Power
Alexander Sobolev to be Booked
Think it is pretty clear based on the cards sheet who my pick for Spartak Moscow will be. Alex Sobolev is the clear standout and at odds of 2/1 looks fantastic value. The only worry with the Spartak Moscow striker is whether he starts or not but most sources suggest he will. At 6 foot 3 he is played as a target man and will be particular important tonight as he will be tasked with holding up the ball to the best of his ability against a far superior opponent.
He is averaging a ridiculous 0.59 cards per game domestically this season and his hefty career average of 0.41 shows this isn’t an anomaly. Despite being just 24 years of age he already has over 50 career cards to his name. His style means elbows are often in play which make him a prime candidate for a card and given how he will likely be the target man throughout the night I fancy him to make good use of those elbows in a desperate bid to hold the ball up. Should he start, he looks exceptional value this evening.
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Alexander Sobolev to be Shown a Card v Napoli @ 3.00 at Paddy Power
Nail Umyarov to be Booked
Another Spartak player to round things off and if nothing else convinces you he looks good for a card then just look at that first name. Let’s hope he flies into some challenges and ‘nails’ a couple of Napoli players, eh? He will likely start in the holding midfield role and will be responsible for guarding a backline which is likely to be under intense pressure for the entire 90 minutes against a quality Napoli side.
He too averages a hefty career average of 0.39 YCPG and up against world class opponents in Fabian Ruiz and Matteo Politano he looks a prime candidate for a card. You can also see from the card sheet that Politano is the most fouled player of any player in the entire Napoli side averaging a massive 3.02 fouls drawn per game.
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Nail Umyarov to be Shown a Card v Napoli @ 2.80 at Paddy Power
Napoli v Spartak Moscow Card Sheet
Marseille v Galatasaray
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Thursday 30th September – 8:00PM Kick Off
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Referee – P. Raczkowski averages 5.1 yellows per domestic game & 4.6 in Europe over the past 2 seasons
Alongside the Napoli game, another fixture that really stood out for cards on the sheet was unsurprisingly Marseille v Galatasaray. Both sides are both renowned around Europe for their passionate fans and often fiery fixtures and I am expecting fireworks in this one. Again we are blessed to have a card happy referee with Polish official Paweł Raczkowski the man with the whistle tonight. He averages over 5 cards per game domestically and 4.6 when officiating in Europe which is still a very healthy number. Again, I have made a note of a couple of players who caught my eye in particular; you can see them listed below.
Papa Gueye to be Booked
Let’s start with the clear standout in this fixture and that is Marseille holding midfielder Papa Gueye. His price of 4.20 is scarcely hard to believe given his stats backed up by the fact he is in this team predominately to be a midfield enforcer. He ranks highest on the cards per game average for Marseille across the last two seasons, he is averaging a card every other game this season so far! He is also 2nd in career YCPG average which shows how consistent he is at finding himself in the referee’s notebook with an very impressive 0.37 YCPG. In what should be a feisty and relatively evenly matches fixture, Gueye looks a fantastic value pick in this one.
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Papa Gueye to be Shown a Card v Marseille @ 4.20 at Paddy Power
Victor Nelsson to be Booked
Now for a Gala player and I like the look of summer signing Victor Nelsson to do the business for the Turkish giants. The Danish centre half was brought in for a hefty fee of £6m this summer and it hasn’t quite worked out for him just yet. He has a multitude of CB partnerships due to Marcao spending much of the season suspended due to headbutting his own teammate (Lol!) and Luyindama and Ozturk being pretty useless. He still doesn’t look settled and that can lead to a number of rash and mistimed tackles which I am anticipating again tonight.
He might not massively standout on the card sheet but he is a very likely starter ahead of both Luyindama and Ozturk and up against the supremely talented Dimitri Payet I wouldn’t be surprised to see him getting absolutely rinsed. Despite being just 22 he already has 38 yellow cards to his name and I fancy him to struggle against a lively Marseille front line.
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Victor Nelsson to be Shown a Card v Marseille @ 2.40 at Paddy Power
Leanardo Balerdi to be Booked
Is there anything more nailed on that a card from an Argentinian defender? Not sure there is and I will be looking to the young Balerdi to do the honours as he likely starts in the centre of defence this evening. He joined from Dortmund this summer and has made a decent start to life on the South of France but already has a red card to his name after just 6 appearances.
The card sheet really does the talking with Balerdi featuring in the top 4 on all the YCPG lists for Marseille and against the man mountain Diagne he is in for a tough night. Diagne, who many of you may remember from his time at WBA last season is a real handful and a real firm favourite of mine as he featured in many of my bet builders last season. He is 6 foot 3 and a relatively inexperienced Balerdi won’t have faced many players like him so far in his career. Diagne unsurprisingly draws 2.19 fouls per game, the second most of any Gala player and he is sure to give the young Argentinian a very tough night.
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Leanardo Balerdi to be Shown a Card v Galatasary @ 3.75 at Paddy Power
Marseille v Galatasary Card Sheet
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *
