The race for the Euro 2020 Golden Boot looks set to be a hotly contested one with several in-form attackers heading to the tournament, with plenty of those representing nations that have a real chance of winning the competition. I’ve decided to take a look into the chances of a range of players in the Euro 2020 top scorer market which will include the favourites, a few dark horses who I think could offer great value and of course those that I think are far too short. Let’s get cracking then.

Euro 2020 top goalscorer preview: Past winners

2016 / Antoine Griezmann – France (6 goals, reached final)
2012 / Fernando Torres – Spain (3 goals, champions)
2008 / David Villa – Spain (4 goals, champions)
2004 / Milan Baros – Czech Republic (5 goals, reached semi-final)

Euro 2020 top goalscorer preview: The favourites

Harry Kane – England (6.5)

He’s undoubtedly the lead goal threat in their squad and it’s not surprising to see him at the head of the market with England expected by many to go deep into the competition.

There is plenty of evidence to support the striker’s price in terms of statistics, too. He scored 12 goals throughout England’s Euro 2020 qualifying campaign and that was not only the highest tally among his country’s ranks but actually the most goals scored by any player across all of the qualifiers – Cristiano Ronaldo’s 11 was the next best. In addition to that he’s proved that he can cope with his nation’s expectations in major tournaments. Kane was instrumental in England’s run to the semi-finals of the World Cup in 2018 and took home the Golden Boot from that competition scoring a total of six goals – two more than players like Antoine Griezmann and Romelu Lukaku.

Domestically Kane has continued to excel this season in a Tottenham team that really failed to live up to expectations once again. He scored 23 goals in the Premier League which saw him finish as top scorer, one goal ahead of Liverpool’s Mo Salah. There is speculation around his club future but that shouldn’t have any impact on his focus this summer.

Ultimately Kane’s records both domestically and internationally coupled with the stacks of attacking talent England have in their squad to support him (Raheem Sterling, Jack Grealish, Mason Mount, and more) does make him a justified favourite in the Euro 2020 top scorer market.

Romelu Lukaku – Belgium (6.5)

Next up is Inter Milan striker, Romelu Lukaku who is another player with experience in scoring goals at major tournaments and producing the goods at club level too. As I mentioned earlier he scored four times at the 2018 World Cup and came up just two shy of Kane’s tally but it does seem that a couple of years on the Belgian is even more deadly. He also comes into Euro 2020 as his nation’s top scorer in qualifying with seven and is fresh off the back of a title-winning season with Inter where he scored 24 times.

The former Everton and Man United man is certain to be at the head of the Belgian attack throughout their campaign barring an injury and given they will have ambitions of going all the way this time I do expect him to have plenty of opportunities to get on the scoresheet. Belgium are at a stage where they really do need to make the most of the talent they’ve got and that could be key to Lukaku being well supported throughout. Kevin De Bruyne looks to be fit despite a face injury in the Champions League Final and things seem hopeful around Eden Hazard being fit enough to feature too. With two world-class attackers supplying the balls, and plenty of others ready to step in if there is an issue, Lukaku will just need to do what he does best and find the net. He should really be right up there again this time in what I expect to be a fascinating race for the Euro 2020 Golden Boot.

Kylian Mbappe – France (9.0)

The third-favourite in the Euro 2020 top goalscorer market comes from tournament joint favourites France. Kylian Mbappe has developed from being one of Europe’s most exciting up and coming attackers to simply being one of the world’s most exciting players as a whole. The 22-year-old is experienced beyond his years now having played at the highest level both internationally and domestically for a good few years. At the 2018 World Cup he appeared in all seven of France’s games en route to lifting the trophy and was on the score sheet on four occasions. Since then he has only become more lethal in front of goal and in this past season for PSG he scored 42 times in all competitions.

He should be buoyed by the inclusion of Real Madrid star Karim Benzema in France’s squad after a lengthy spell away from the team. While he can clearly still succeed with Olivier Giroud in the side, as has been the case for the past few years, Benzema brings that extra bit of quality and aside from his own goalscoring he registered nine assists in La Liga this year so could link up nicely with Mbappe. Again, I think the bookies have got this one down pretty accurately and with France looking like the team to beat again it would be no surprise to see Mbappe near the top of the goalscoring charts in the latter stages of the tournament.

Euro 2020 top goalscorer preview: Dark horse

Karim Benzema – France (15.0)

Sticking with France I was fairly surprised to see that Benzema is priced up at 17.0 to be the top scorer this year. Of course there are some reasons behind his price, not least the fact that he’d not been part of the French squad since 2015 before being selected for this tournament. There is also somewhat of a question mark over whether Didier Deschamps will start him as France’s No.9 or instead go for Olivier Giroud who he is clearly a fan of. Personally I don’t think Deschamps would have added Benzema to the squad without the intention of using him to his full potential and that would be as a first choice striker.

Despite being away from the national team for some years he does have 82 appearances 27, goals and 11 assists to his name so he is no stranger to representing his country at the highest level. He’s now 33 but has enjoyed a really successful season at club level for Real Madrid. He scored 23 in 35 games in La Liga and six in 10 games in the Champions League so he’s clearly in fine form. Couple that with the fact that he’s coming into a side that are World champions and have as much talent, if not more than every other country in the competition and the price being offered on him to be the top scorer at Euro 2020 looks overly generous. While I am staggered t the price, it could be a wise decision to hold off until closer to kick-off in France’s first match to see if we get a better idea of who will be starting up top.

Euro 2020 top goalscorer preview: No value

Cristiano Ronaldo – Portugal (10.0)

First of all, let’s just address the fact that I’m suggesting there isn’t enough value in Cristiano Ronaldo to score goals… I’m aware that he is one of the greatest goalscorers of all time and he could well go and prove me wrong but in my opinion a price of around 10.0 is far too short, hear me out.

Ronaldo’s Portugal are drawn in the ‘group of death’ with reigning World champions France, Joachim Low’s Germany and Hungary. Now, I know that I’ve written about how a couple of French players could well be up there in the goalscoring charts but even with them playing in this group I think they are just a cut above Portugal and Germany. I can’t see Portugal’s matches against the big two featuring too many goals in the group stage and the stats back that up. Since Euro 2016 Portugal have played against elite opposition 11 times and just two (2!) of those games have seen more than one goal scored. In that period Portugal have also only picked up two wins and drawn seven. In addition to that France and Germany conceded just six and seven goals respectively through their qualifying campaigns. There’s no doubt that the likes of Lukaku and Kane have more favourable groups in terms of goalscoring opportunities.

Another angle to look at is the depth of quality that Portugal now have in attack. The likes of Diogo Jota and Bruno Fernandes are all likely to play a big part and their side is no longer needing to rely so heavily on Ronaldo to provide the goals so less opportunities may come his way. With all that in mind I just feel that odds of 10.0 to be the overall Euro 2020 top scorer are a little short. If you disagree then that’s fair enough, he is Ronaldo after all.

Good luck.