It’s not quite happened for Memphis Depay at Euro 2024 yet, but it’s been threatening for the Netherlands forward. Having had six shots across the two games he has played, no Dutch player has mustered more (he is level with Cody Gakpo), and Memphis’ 0.6xG is a squad-high figure.

At international level as a whole, meanwhile, he has an excellent record. This will be his 95th cap and he will be chasing his 46th goal. He is netting at close to a goal every other game.

This game could be an open one, too. Austria will likely need a point to secure their place in the next round, while the Dutch require a victory (and possibly a handsome one) to seal top spot. In particular, if the Austrians are attacking, that will leave the type of room Memphis loves to exploit on the counter.

His likely replacement for the Super Sub market, meanwhile, is Wout Weghorst, a player who has already netted off the bench at the Euros and someone who is earning himself the tag of a specialist in just this type of situation. This is valuable insurance when backing Memphis, particularly as Weghorst is a very different type of player and could transform a locked match.

Christian Eriksen’s fairy tale return might be fuelling Denmark’s push to the last 16, but Barcelona centre-back Andreas Christensen is interesting value to net anytime in their do-or-die group clash with Serbia. With two points through their opening two fixtures, though, Denmark will need a victory against Serbia to secure their place in the knockout round.

Eriksen may be their offensive inspiration, but don’t sleep on the threat that Christensen poses at 17.0 to net at any point. The centre-back has a combined 0.4xG following the clashes against Slovenia and England, having shots against both rival nations.

Looking at the aerial prowess of these sides further points to value in this longshot. Serbia are among the poorer nations at Euro 2024 in the air. They have won only 44.3% of their aerial challenges. By contrast, no one is better than the direct Danes, who have won a tournament-high figure of 39 such battles, translating to 63.9% – also the leading figure.

Denmark will try to exploit this strength, especially from set pieces, which they will deliver into the box at every opportunity. Christensen, who has scored three times in his last 12 for club and country, has come close against both England and Slovenia, and it may well be the third time’s the charm here.

Through the first two rounds of matches at Euro 2024, no player had committed more fouls than Slovenia’s Adam Gnezda Cerin. The central midfielder gave up an incredible nine fouls across his first two matches but has somehow escaped significant disciplinary action in either game. The Panathinaikos player committed five fouls against Denmark then four against Serbia.

England, meanwhile, are winning free kicks from the midfield area. Jude Bellingham has drawn five fouls, Conor Gallagher four and Trent Alexander-Arnold three. They can look forward to more coming their way up against Cernin on Tuesday.

Of course, a high volume of fouls runs the risk of attracting a referee’s attention, and after escaping a booking in either of the first two games of the season despite a high free kick count against him, the Slovenia player will surely not get lucky again.

He has done well to avoid getting himself into disciplinary trouble with Slovenia, and indeed has not been booked since the 2022/23 Nations League, but prior to that was picking up around a card every three games.