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Aston Villa v Man United
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Kick Off: Sunday 6th October at 14:00
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Competition: Premier League
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event
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Aston Villa v Man United Bet Builder Tips
Erik ten Hag’s future at Manchester United will be scrutinised as they head to Aston Villa on Sunday. A 3-0 home defeat to Tottenham last weekend, worsened by Bruno Fernandes’ first-half red card, which was later rescinded, left United struggling. Playing with 10 men in the second half made little difference, as Spurs dominated with 24 shots, 10 on target, and a 4.59 xG, handing United their worst performance of the season.
In contrast, Aston Villa come into the match with confidence after a midweek Champions League win over Bayern Munich, despite losing the xG battle 0.40-1.42 and being outshot 5-17. Unai Emery’s side have been far more productive in attack, scoring seven more goals than United so far this season. However, Villa are still seeking their first league clean sheet, having conceded twice against Ipswich last weekend. This defensive vulnerability, combined with Villa’s superior firepower, suggests a high-scoring affair at Villa Park.
⭐ Aston Villa v Man United Best Bets
➡️ Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.64 on Betfair
There’s a strong case for at least 3 goals between Aston Villa and Manchester United on Sunday. Villa have been prolific at home, scoring in 5 of 6 games, yet their defence remains vulnerable, with no clean sheets and conceding twice in 2 of 3 home matches. Their last 20 home Premier League games average 3.95 goals, with 15 featuring at least 3 goals. Man Utd, under pressure and struggling defensively, have conceded an average of 16 shots in the box per 90 minutes in their last 4 games.
🔍 Aston Villa v Man United Players to Watch
🟣 Youri Tielemans
Tielemans will partner with Amadou Onana, but it’s Tielemans who will see more of the ball, tasked with driving Villa’s play forward. As a result, he’s likely to become a frequent target for fouls.
This season, Tielemans has been fouled 11 times in 6 matches, with at least one foul in every game and two or more in 4. After their poor performance last weekend, United will be eager to press hard, with Bruno Fernandes, Manuel Ugarte, Kobbie Mainoo, or Casemiro expected to close down Villa’s key players. Ugarte committed 3 fouls in his only start, Mainoo has made 9 in 6 appearances, and Casemiro, known for his aggressive tackling, remains a threat, despite having slowed down slightly.
🔴 Matthijs De Ligt
De Ligt now appears to be United’s regular starting centre back alongside Lisandro Martinez. This season, he’s been fouled at least once in all 4 games he has started. With Villa likely to play the ball up to Ollie Watkins or Jhon Duran, who will try to involve team-mates, we could see a physical contest between these forwards and De Ligt.
Morgan Rogers, another physical presence for Villa, often commits late challenges when closing down, accumulating 7 fouls in his last 4 games.
De Ligt will also be a key defender on set pieces, where Villa players may try to disrupt him as they compete for the ball. Given his involvement in these physical battles and the fact that he’s been fouled in every start, the odds of him being fouled again in this match offer solid value.
As noted in the previous bet on De Ligt, he will be central to set pieces, both defensively and offensively. In his last three games, De Ligt has taken 6 shots, more than both Joshua Zirkzee and Marcus Rashford over the same period.
While Villa’s height should help them handle United’s set pieces, recent opponents like Spurs, Palace, and Southampton have struggled to prevent De Ligt from getting on the end of corners and free kicks. With Villa coming off an intense midweek game against Bayern Munich, their biggest home fixture in years, they could be fatigued and less alert to United’s set piece threats.
📂 Aston Villa v Man United Cheat Sheet
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💻 Aston Villa v Man United Form and Tactics
Manchester United’s Premier League form this season has been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses from their first six games. They have managed three clean sheets against Crystal Palace, Southampton, and Fulham, but the win over Southampton was fortunate as they were outplayed until the hosts missed a penalty. United have scored in just three matches, and the pressure is mounting on Erik ten Hag’s side to deliver better performances.
Currently, they rank 9th in xPTS and 8th in non-penalty expected goals ratio, with a 1.03 xGA per game. Over the last four matches, their form has dipped, ranking 17th in non-penalty xG ratio and 16th on xPTS. Defensively, United have been porous, allowing an average of 16 shots in the box per 90 minutes, raising concerns ahead of their trip to Villa Park on Sunday.
Aston Villa have started the season strongly, with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from their first six games. Offensively, they’ve been impressive, scoring in 5 of their 6 matches. However, their defence has been less reliable, failing to keep a clean sheet and conceding 2 goals in 2 of their 3 home games. Villa’s midweek Champions League clash against Bayern Munich may have left them fatigued for the upcoming league fixture.
They currently rank 7th on xPTS and 5th on non-penalty expected goals ratio. At home, Villa are 3rd on xPTS, though their form has dipped recently, placing 9th over the last four games in both xPTS and non-penalty xG ratio. In those games, they’ve averaged 1.47 xG and 1.32 xGA per match. Villa Park has seen plenty of goals, with their last 20 home Premier League games averaging 3.95 goals, and 15 of those games featuring both teams scoring.
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🏁 Aston Villa v Man United Ref Watch
- Rob Jones will take charge of Aston Villa v Manchester United, and his track record suggests a high chance of cards. In his 4 Premier League games this season, Jones has averaged 6.25 cards per match, with all 8 teams involved receiving at least one booking and 6 of them picking up two or more. Three of his four matches have seen 40+ booking points.
- Last season, Jones refereed 22 Premier League games, averaging 4.91 cards per game. He issued cards to both teams in 19 of those matches, and 18 featured at least 4 cards. Notably, Jones officiated this exact fixture last season, where he handed out 5 cards, with both teams receiving at least two each.
- This season, Villa and United are averaging 5.83 match cards per 90 minutes, and both teams have seen cards issued to both sides in all six of their games, further indicating a likely card-heavy match.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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