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Andy Robson

Andy's Saturday Premier League Accumulator @ 4.11

Bournemouth should have a significant amount of defensive work to do here against an Arsenal side who will expect to dominate proceedings at the Emirates. Iraola's side usually press with intensity regardless of their opponent, as opposed to sitting back and inviting pressure. Because of that, they rank third in the league for total fouls committed, which has translated to the fourth-most yellow cards. 

Bournemouth picked up three cards in the reverse fixture at the Vitality Stadium, while Evanilson and Dango Ouattara were booked when the Cherries last made the trip to the Emirates. 

There were zero cards shown by a lenient Andy Madley in Arsenal’s last Premier League home game against Everton, but the Gunners are still averaging 1.93 cards drawn per game this term in the league. That figure rises marginally to 2.07 when playing at home, where this selection has landed in seven of their last ten.

There is little to split these two sides as we head into matchday 32 of the Premier League season, as Brentford and Everton are both just three points off Liverpool in fifth. 

Everton’s away record has been a significant contributor to their success this season, and they have consistently been able to pick up points on their travels. The Toffees tend to set up in a compact shape to make themselves hard to break down. They have only conceded 16 goals from their 15 away matches in the league, which is the second-best defensive record, only behind league-leaders Arsenal. Because of that, Everton have only lost five of their 15 away matches. 

Meanwhile, Brentford have failed to win any of their last four home matches, and they were held to a 2-2 draw by bottom side Wolves just before the international break. Everton secured a 3-0 win over Chelsea last time out, and they will be confident of taking something from this clash. 

Burnley have little to play for at this stage, with relegation looking inevitable, and their performances have reflected that. The Clarets have failed to win any of their last six matches across all competitions, and have conceded 12 goals in that stretch. 

Meanwhile, Brighton were in a rich vein of form heading into the international break, having beaten Liverpool 2-1 at the Amex. The Seagulls have won four of their last five league matches, putting them tenth in the standings, and they are not completely out of the race for a European finish just yet. Fabian Hurzeler's side will be looking to pick up where they left off.

Burnley were barely able to lay a glove on Brighton when these sides met in the reverse fixture, as it finished 2-0 on the south coast. Brighton racked up 15 shots and two big chances worth 1.45 xG, while the visitors managed just five shots worth 0.3 xG in return. 

Fulham’s card numbers this season make them well worth backing to pick up at least a couple of bookings at Anfield on Saturday evening. Marco Silva’s side sit towards the upper end of the top-flight disciplinary table this term, averaging just over 2 yellow cards per game, with that figure rising to nearly 2.5 when playing away from Craven Cottage.

What’s more, Fulham have received 2 or more cards in 3 of their last 4 Premier League matches, including home games against the likes of relegation-threatened duo Burnley and West Ham.

While Liverpool are enduring a difficult spell, there is no denying they still possess a wealth of attacking talent in midfield and forward areas that are capable of winning fouls. That is reflected in the fact that the Reds are drawing an average of 2.04 cards per game in the Premier League this season, with 3 of the last 4 visiting sides to Anfield in the top-flight picking up at least 2 bookings. 

The case for this selection is further strengthened by the fact that Man City received 3 bookings despite thrashing Liverpool 4-0 in the FA Cup last weekend.

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Football
Andy Robson

Andy's SPFL Accumulator @ 4.17

It’s been a season of ups and downs for Jim Goodwin’s Dundee United, who will have taken confidence from two positive performances against the Old Firm - beating Celtic 2-0 and coming up just short in a 4-2 loss at Rangers.

United have won their last two games at Tannadice against Celtic and St Mirren, last losing at home against Hearts back in January.

Although Livingston have been stubborn under Marvin Bartley since he took over from David Martindale in February, the Lions’ away record remains dreadful.

Livingston are still yet to win away from home in the league this season and lost convincingly 2-0 to Kilmarnock on their last road trip.

I’m therefore backing Dundee United to win this one with home advantage.

There’s a lot riding on this match for Kilmarnock given they are currently sitting in the Scottish Prem relegation play-off spot in 11th.

Killie’s home form has been strong under Neil McCann, winning four of their five league matches at Rugby Park and averaging 2.4 goals in the process.

I therefore expect them to be on the front foot against eighth-placed Dundee, but they have to be mindful of the threat the visitors can pose going forward.

Dundee have scored in six of their last seven league matches and have the pace in attack to cause Killie problems on the counter.

I’m therefore expecting goals in this one in Ayrshire.

I expect Celtic to ramp up the pressure on their title rivals by securing a home win over St Mirren on Saturday. Martin O’Neill’s men returned to winning ways last Sunday with a hard-fought 2-1 victory away at Dundee. With league leaders Hearts likely to receive a stern test at home to Motherwell, and Rangers facing a potential banana skin away at Falkirk on Sunday, Celtic will know that a win here would really turn up the heat.

Further encouragement comes from the fact that Celtic have won 7 of their 8 Scottish Premiership home matches under O'Neill's watch this season.

While St Mirren have boosted their survival hopes under interim manager Craig McLeish with back-to-back wins over Falkirk and Aberdeen, the Saints have struggled on their top-flight travels this term.
In fact, the Paisley outfit have failed to pick up any points from 10 of their 16 top-flight away matches this season, including their previous visit to Parkhead earlier in the campaign.

Both of the previous meetings between Hearts and Motherwell in the Scottish Premiership this season have ended all square and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same outcome this time around.

Hearts have won their last four league matches at Tynecastle 1-0 and remain unbeaten in the league at home, but they have stumbled somewhat in their title charge of late.

Although Motherwell have themselves stumbled of late and are now without a win in four league games, they remain a capable side under Jens Berthel Askou who Hearts are yet to beat this season.

I can’t see Motherwell winning at Tynecastle given their current form, but it could be close, so I am covering Hearts in the Double Chance market.

Aberdeen have found themselves in big relegation trouble with the Dons only three points above the play-off spot in 11th.
I am expecting a physical battle at Pittodrie between a struggling Aberdeen team and a Hibs side who have often lacked attacking invention under David Gray this season.

Set-pieces could therefore be crucial, with Aberdeen ranking fifth in the Scottish Prem for total corners per match and Hibs fourth.

Aberdeen’s home matches have averaged 11.33 corners this season while Hibs’ away games have averaged 9.44.

There have not been less than nine corners in an Aberdeen home match in the league since their first game at Pittodrie against Celtic in August.

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