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Newcastle v Aston Villa
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Kick Off: Thursday 26th December at 15:00
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Competition: Premier League
Newcastle are flying high after a third consecutive win in all competitions, cruising to a 4-0 demolition of Ipswich away from home, bringing their goal tally to 11 in the last 3 matches. They now host an in-form Aston Villa, who secured an impressive 2-1 victory over Man City.
Both sides have their sights set on Champions League football, with Newcastle sitting 5 points behind Nottingham Forest in 4th, while Villa are just 3 points adrift. The stakes are high in this Boxing Day clash as both teams aim to close the gap on Forest.
⭐ Newcastle v Aston Villa Best Bet
Alexander Isak’s sensational form makes him the standout option in this match. The Swedish forward heads into the game after a brilliant hat trick against Ipswich, bringing his league tally to 10 goals this season.
His movement, composure, and clinical finishing make him a constant threat, particularly at home, where Newcastle are thriving offensively. With Newcastle’s attack firing on all cylinders and Isak’s confidence at an all-time high, the 2.25 price for him to score offers tremendous value.
🟢 Newcastle v Aston Villa #WhatOddsPaddy Tip
Backing both teams to be awarded a penalty at odds of 12 represents intriguing value, particularly given referee Anthony Taylor’s recent record. In his last 3 Premier League fixtures, Taylor has awarded multiple penalties, with players like Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard, Cole Palmer (twice), and Bruno Fernandes all converting from the spot. This trend highlights Taylor’s propensity to penalise challenges in the box, which makes this market worth considering, the referee has awarded 5 penalties in his last 3 fixtures.
Both teams in this matchup are seeking their third penalty of the season, and history suggests penalties are a possibility in this fixture. Callum Wilson and Anwar El Ghazi have converted penalties in recent years between these sides. With both teams boasting attackers adept at drawing fouls in the penalty area, and Taylor’s whistle-happy nature, this market offers significant upside at generous odds.
👕 Newcastle v Aston Villa Predicted XI
🔍 Newcastle v Aston Villa Players to Watch
⚫ Bruno Guimaraes
Bruno Guimarães remains a critical figure in Newcastle’s midfield, not just for his creative play but for his ability to draw fouls and control the tempo. The Brazilian averages 3.61 fouls won per 90 minutes this season, up from his career average of 2.96 at Newcastle.
He has been fouled 3 or more times in 18 of his last 23 matches, highlighting his ability to frustrate opponents with his skilful dribbling and game management. Aston Villa’s aggressive midfield will likely target him, increasing the chances of him being fouled multiple times.
Additionally, Bruno’s combative style makes him a candidate for committing fouls as well, with 15 fouls in his last 9 starts. Expect him to be at the centre of the action in this highly competitive midfield battle.
🟣 Amadou Onana
Aston Villa’s Andre Onana returned to the starting lineup with a commanding display in their 2-1 victory over Manchester City. However, his physical and aggressive style of play often leads to fouls, a pattern evident in his performance against City where he committed 3 fouls.
Onana’s return from injury has reignited his determination to make an impact, but this eagerness may also result in multiple fouls as he seeks to dominate the midfield battles. Before his injury, Onana committed 5 fouls in his last start and averages 1.56 fouls per 90 minutes this season. Newcastle’s pace and physicality in midfield will likely test Onana, increasing the probability of tactical fouls as Villa try to disrupt their rhythm.
🟣 Jhon Duran
Aston Villa’s Colombian sensation, Jhon Duran, has been one of the standout performers this season. He comes into this Boxing Day clash with Newcastle riding a wave of confidence, having scored the opening goal in Villa’s 2-1 triumph over Man City. Duran has now tallied 7 league goals this season, showcasing his sharp eye for goal and clinical finishing.
He is also averaging 2.07 shots on target per 90 minutes, he remains a constant threat in the attacking third. In his last 6 matches, Duran has registered at least 1 shot on target in each game, totalling 10 shots on target over that stretch. His combination of pace, strength, and finishing ability makes him a nightmare for opposing defenders.
📂 Newcastle v Aston Villa Cheat Sheet
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We’ve got plenty more in store for Boxing Day’s action, look out for our Liverpool v Leicester Bet Builder Predictions, as well as Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Bet Builder Predictions and Chelsea v Fulham Betting Tips.
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💻 Newcastle v Aston Villa Form and Tactics
Both Newcastle and Aston Villa have a similar playing style and share strengths as they aim for a Champions League spot, with their stats unsurprisingly closely aligned.
Newcastle have a slight edge in attacking output, averaging 1.89 goals per game compared to Villa’s 1.75. They also take marginally more shots (13.46 to 13.33) and hit the target slightly more often (5.06 to Villa’s 4.85).
However, Villa’s aggressive style sees them commit more fouls (11.09 to 10.33) and collect more cards (2.39 to 2.06). They also win more fouls (12.46 to Newcastle’s 12.33) and earn more corners (6.01 to 5.14).
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🏁 Newcastle v Aston Villa Ref Watch
- Referee: Anthony Taylor
- Taylor has distributed 17 cards in his last 5 Premier League matches, an average of 3.4 cards per game.
- He has awarded a notable 5 penalties in his last 3 league fixtures.
- There has been an average of 19.1 fouls per game during his last 10 games.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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