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Friday's European Double @ 1.89

I think it’s a bit harsh to have Bologna at 5.0 to win here, they won the Coppa Italia last season and Vincenzo Italiano is a manager that has navigated knockout competitions well, also having a final in the Conference League with Fiorentina on his CV.

That being said, I think Inter Milan will find a way to get through this tie with their superior player quality and general dominance in Serie A this season. Inter have won 11 of their 15 matches under the tutelage of Cristian Chivu this term, with the Romanian effectively building on the work of Simone Inzaghi who won everything possible domestically with the club.

Inter have scored 34 goals across their 15 games in Serie A this term which is a great record in a league as tactical and pragmatic as Serie A. This is further illustrated by the fact that the next top scorers in the Italian top flight are AC Milan who have netted ten fewer goals than their city rivals. 

Inter have won this trophy on eight occasions, most recently in the 23/24 season, with Inter losing out in the final against their city rivals last campaign. They come into this clash having won four of their last five matches across all competitions, with the only blemish being a 1-0 defeat to Liverpool in the Champions League.

Bologna will be a stubborn opponent, but Inter have the experience and extra player quality to qualify for the final. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this tie go the distance, and it’s also worth noting that this semi final is being played at a neutral venue, so no side has any real home advantage which is more likely to play to the strengths of Inter rather than Bologna. 

Backing Valencia to avoid defeat against Mallorca is a wise choice, particularly with the home fans behind them, which I expect to play a significant role. Los Che have exceeded their opponents in terms of xG in seven of their eight at the Mestalla, losing just two of those games.

They’ve brought this selection home in 11 of their 17 league outings to date, including five of their previous six. Against opposition outside of the top four, only three teams have found a way past Valencia.

Mallorca, meanwhile, have recorded just four league victories, and picked up a combined four points across their eight matches on the road.

Football

Swansea v Wrexham Bet Builder @ 4.17

There is a huge difference in expected goals data between Swansea at home, where the Swans have a negative xG differential of -0.22 xG per game, but this is still preferable to the -0.5 that the Swans have away from home.

Moreover, it is certainly much better than Wrexham's atrocious away data. They are running at -1.1 xG per match when playing away from home. The Dragons have now also gone seven away games without a win, whilst losing the xG battle in all seven of those matches, despite five of them ending in draws.

The biggest indicator, though, was how poorly Wrexham played in their last away match at Hull. This contrasts with Swansea winning their last two home matches without conceding a goal against Oxford and Portsmouth.

Having the draw onside here is great for us, but I am equally comfortable with leaning towards the home side here.

This is a pretty high card line, but there are a couple of reasons in particular why I still like this as a bet.

Firstly, this is a Welsh derby, and though Swansea wouldn't usually be classed as enemy #1 by Wrexham fans, that is reserved for Chester, but this is probably the best approximation of a derby match that Wrexham will have in the league this year.

The scarcity of this match being played does mean that there is no strong track record to go off, the last meeting was over 20 years ago, but at the same time, that also gives this meeting a unique quality.

Wrexham did play Cardiff in the League Cup earlier this season, and were involved in 20 duels, albeit Wrexham didn't get a card on that occasion, but Cardiff picked up three that evening.

The second aspect that backs this bet is that Oliver Langford is having a big cards season in the Championship. He is averaging 4.63 cards per game in his eight appearances so far, whereas his career average is down at 3.35 across his 279 matches.

Sheaf is an extremely regular foul drawer. He is the heartbeat of the Wrexham midfield now that he has established himself in that role, and his regular spells of possession seem to be attracting opposition players to come and press him.

The numbers stack up in making this a good selection for the multi. Sheaf is averaging 1.41 fouls drawn per 90 this season, and his current run of starts have seen him be fouled at least once in his last nine starts.

Indeed, he only came off the bench for less than half an hour against Watford, but was still fouled twice in that time.

As mentioned above, we don't quite know how this match will go from a violence perspective, but there is potential for it to be a high foul encounter. Mario Stamenic of Swansea is fouling at almost exactly two fouls per 90, and he is likely to be one of Sheaf's direct opponents.

Galbraith has been used from the right back position under Victor Matos so far. This is a better bet if he starts there again in this match, but is still value if he is moved back to central midfield.

His last three matches have seen Galbraith be fouled 4, 2, and 3 times. He is clearly an incredibly important player for Swansea; he plays practically every minute available, so there should be the full 90 minutes plus injury time for this bet to play out.

He is averaging 1.18 fouls against him per 90 in the Championship. He has been fouled at least once in his last five matches, and, in a similar way to the Sheaf bet, I am expecting central midfield to be a real battleground here with potentially six players in that space.

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