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Newcastle v AC Milan
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Kick Off: Wednesday 13th December at 20:00
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Competition: Champions League
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Watch Live: TNT Sports 1
The Champions League ‘Group of Death’ is coming down to the wire, and as ever, our experts have been looking for the best betting angles in this crucial clash. Alongside our Newcastle v AC Milan bet builder tips, Andy’s Bet Club is full of free expert football betting predictions like our Champions League bet builder tips, including those for Dortmund v PSG and our Champions League accumulator for Wednesday – everything you need for the final Champions League matchday of 2023.
We have collected the best free bet offers and the best bookmaker offers to help you bet smarter across this week’s European games, and our football betting cheat sheet tool has everything you need to craft bet builders filled with great value across all European competitions.
St James’ Park hosts a very exciting clash between Newcastle and AC Milan as the dreaded Group of Death comes into this final matchday with a place in the Champions League knockout stages all to play for.
One side must be victorious in this fixture if they have any hope of progressing and PSG must be held to a draw or loss by group leaders Borussia Dortmund. A PSG win will doom both Newcastle and AC Milan from the top flight of European football which means a third place snatch and grab for a place in the Europa League will follow.
Newcastle come into this crucial fixture in pretty dire form. Two losses on the bounce, conceding seven and finding the net only once. The Magpies are struggling to get back to winning ways, especially with a defence plagued with injuries, but if there’s any place to get back into the winning groove, it’s at St James’ Park with a place in the Champions League knockouts on the line. A win here and a draw in Germany will see them through.
AC Milan are winless away in the Champions League this season and are yet to score away from home in the competition. With only 1 win in 11 matches against English clubs in Europe, the omens are certainly against the Rossoneri, but you can never write off any side in this competition, especially with what’s at stake.
Newcastle v AC Milan Cheat Sheet
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You can find Newcastle v AC Milan match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
⚽ Match stats: Domestic weekend defeats to play their part
The goalless draw at the San Siro on matchday one is the only time these two sides have met which saw the pinnacle of a backs-against-the-wall display from both sides, and neither side will go into this full of confidence either after poor weekend results.
Newcastle continue to be sentenced to a huge injury list but did see the return of Sean Longstaff and Callum Wilson during the weekend’s battering by Spurs. Milan now find themselves nine behind league leaders and rivals Inter Milan with their loss at Atalanta.
Despite recent struggles, both coming away from home, Newcastle have beaten Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal in their last three home games and seem like a new side at their Geordie Fortress as compared to on the road. There will be an outstanding atmosphere at St James’ Park on Wednesday which will definitely play as that ever-needed 12th man.
Callum Wilson’s return will be a huge boost coming into this clash and with 4 points from 6 at home in Europe, including a sensational 4-1 win over PSG. If there’s to be a winner on Wednesday, we see the home side snatching the 3 points.
Both sides will have to go all out for a win which should bring goals to this affair, despite a goalless reverse fixture. Milan have struggled to find the net in Europe but they have scored in six consecutive outings across all competitions and their hosts have shown defensive vulnerability as of late. We don’t expect the Rosseri to go down without a gladiator-worthy performance in such a spectacle.
Predictions:
🏆 Newcastle draw no bet @ 1.36
🥅 Both teams to score @ 1.65
🎯 Shooting stats: Pulisic to inspire the Rossoneri
Christian Pulisic is looking a great danger across the Serie A and Champions League in recent weeks and with Newcastle showing continued defensive struggles, especially on the wings, he could certainly cause the hosts some issues on Wednesday.
Pulisic is averaging a respectable 1.84 shots on goals per 90 with 1.33 hitting the target this season, with his consistent accuracy being the best in the squad. He has hit the target in three of his five Champions League appearances this season, one of which a 30 minute bench cameo, and has racked up a total of nine shots on goal, including two in the reverse fixture. Pulisic has one shot on target in each of his last four games across all competitions.
Newcastle are facing some cohesive troubles recently, forcing them into absorbing lots of attacking pressure. The Magpies have conceded a whopping 44 shots across their last two league games, 18 hitting the target, and have conceded 48 shots across their last two Champions League outings.
This AC Milan side certainly aren’t afraid to have attempts at goal, averaging 11.70 shots per 90 in Italy this season, 4.20 hitting the target, and average 13.60 shots per game in the Champions League. Milan have registered 33 shots across their last 2 European games with 12 shots hitting the target. If Newcastle cannot close their cracks in the defence, they could be on the receiving end once again, leaving Dubravka vulnerable to forcing saves.
Predictions:
🚀 Christian Pulisic to have 2+ shots @ 1.73
🎯 Christian Pulisic to have 1+ shot on target @ 2.00
🚀 AC Milan to have 11+ shots @ 1.62
🎯 AC Milan to have 3+ shots on target @ 1.30
🚩 Corner stats: Both teams loving corners in Europe
If anything has been consistent for these two sides during this Europe campaign, it has been the flood of corners.
AC Milan have taken an impressive 33 corners over their last five outings in Europe, including racking up ten corners against Borussia Dortmund last time out. AC Milan games in the Champions League are averaging a very respectable 11.50 corners, which perfectly matches with their hosts figures of 11.00 corners per game. With both sides needing to go out to win, we could see a very open attacking game with lots of potential for corners.
The reverse fixture saw only seven corners, in which AC Milan dominated the corner match bet 6-1. The Rossoneri have recorded seven corners in both of their away matches in the Champions League so don’t expect the corners to dry up when they visit Tyneside on Tuesday.
Newcastle’s European clashes have also been filled with corners but has mostly seen the Magpies on the receiving end. Newcastle have faced 35 of the 55 total corners taken across their games so far – 11 of their corners came at home against Borussia Dortmund and they registered 1 corner at home to PSG.
Newcastle are conceding an average of 7.20 corners per game in the Champions League and sit in a miserable 17th place in the Premier League for total corners taken (71). The odds on the AC Milan total corner markets do seem pretty generous given both sides’ stats this season and certainly look like they hold good value.
Predictions:
🚩 Over 8.5 total corners @ 1.45
🚩 Over 4.5 AC Milan corners @ 2.40
🚩 Over 5.5 AC Milan corners @ 4.00
🚩 AC Milan corner match bet @ 3.20
🛑 Fouls stats: The Brazilian duo to cause trouble
Davide Calabria looks like a solid fouling target for AC Milan, boasting the joint-highest number of fouls committed in the Champions League this season for his side.
Calabria is averaging 2.11 fouls per 90, accumulating eight fouls across his five Champions League appearances this campaign, including two in the reverse fixture. He has committed at least two fouls in three of those appearances and is coming off the back of making four fouls at the weekend against Atalanta which resulted in his dismissal after picking up two yellow cards.
Calabria will be directly up against Anthony Gordon on Wednesday, who draws an impressive 3.33 fouls per 90 in the Champions League and sits as the fifth most fouled player in the competition so far. Calabria may also face Bruno Guimaraes, someone who has shown his love to push forward and trouble defences. He’s drawing in 3.00 fouls per 90 in Europe, the fourth most fouled player so far, so there is definitely potential for foul selections here.
These types of games usually demand great midfield battles and often these games are won that way. The fight for possession will be key here are Newcastle’s Brazilian midfield duo, Joelinton and Bruno Guimarães, will have to leave it all out there on Wednesday.
A serial fouling partnership averaging 2.22 and 1.00 fouls per 90 in the Champions League and 1.98 and 1.58 fouls in the Premier League, things could get spicy in the midfield with so much at stake.
Battling out against Rafael Leao and Ruben Loftus-Cheek, just to name a couple of key foul drawing assets in this Milan side, who draw in 2.31 and 2.14 fouls per 90 in Europe, there could easily be a slip up or two for Newcastle’s Brazilian partners.
Predictions:
🛑 Davide Calabria to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.33
🛑 Davide Calabria to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.40
🩹 Anthony Gordon to be fouled 2+ times @ 1.36
🛑 Joelinton to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.36
🟨 Joelinton to be shown a card @ 3.50
🛑 Bruno Guimaraes to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.17
🩹 Bruno Guimaraes to be fouled 2+ times @ 1.25
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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