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After a slow start to life at Sunderland, Habib Diarra has exploded into form since January, and with opposition defenders struggling to contain him, he’s being fouled 1.6 times per 90. The Black Cats midfielder has been brought down 20 times across his last nine league starts, with this bet landing in all of those, and so is in excellent foul-winning form.

Playing in a central role, Diarra will be up against Youri Tielemans, Amadou Onana and Ross Barkley, who combine for 2.99 fouls per 90 this season. The Villa midfield trio will also be battling fatigue, having played against Bologna in the Europa League on Thursday evening, and tired legs often lead to more late challenges. 

Dan Ballard is set to return from injury for the trip to Aston Villa, and with a record of 1.26 shots per 90 this season, he’s highly likely to get involved in the Villa box. The Black Cats defender is a monster in the air, and with all set pieces aimed at his head, it should come as no surprise that he’s landed this bet in 11 of his last 13 starts across all competitions, managing 16 efforts at goal in that period. 

Aston Villa have been vulnerable from set plays all season, conceding four shots per game from such situations. Ballard managed a shot from a restart in the reverse fixture despite only appearing as a substitute, whilst centre back partners Nordi Mukiele and Omar Alderete were also afforded three shots between them, and so Regis Le Bris is clearly capable of creating set piece routines to trouble the Villans.

Villa were left frustrated when these sides met at the Stadium of Light, as Sunderland held on to a 1-1 draw, despite being reduced to 10 men in the first half. Despite having the numerical advantage for over an hour, Villa were unable to control the game as much as they would have liked, but they still managed to land this selection with five corners. Unai Emery's men tend to dominate their games at Villa Park, which makes corners a target.

Villa are averaging 5.28 corners per game in the Premier League this season, rising to 5.75 when playing at home, where this selection has landed in nine of their last 12 matches. Sunderland have been quite pragmatic in their approach when playing away this season, and they have conceded 18 corners in their last two away matches in the league alone. 

Sunderland have looked much more confident when playing in front of a home crowd this season, and their record can attest to that. The Black Cats have only picked up 17 points from 16 league matches in their travels this season, compared to 29 at the Stadium of Light.

Regis Le Bris' side have struggled to exert the same control in their away fixtures as they have at home, and that has translated to a significant uptick in bookings on the road. They are averaging 2.31 cards per game in their Premier League away matches this season, compared to just 2.06 at home.

Aston Villa rank first in the Premier League for total cards drawn this season, having also been fouled more times than any club in the division. Those two trends marry up perfectly to back Sunderland cards here.

Reinildo played a key role in the outcome of the reverse fixture at the Stadium of Light, as he received a straight red card for kicking out at Matty Cash in the first half. His dismissal after just 33 minutes swung the game in Villa's favour, and despite that, the Mozambique international still managed to land this selection before his sending off, committing exactly two infringements. 

Reinildo is averaging 1.66 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, which is one of the highest values in the Sunderland squad, reflecting his aggressive approach to duels in wide areas. His primary matchup will be against John McGinn, who looks set to start on the right wing, while Matty Cash should also be up against Reinildo, and that is a matchup to keep an eye on based on what happened in September.

After missing a couple of games before the international break, Enzo Le Fee was handed his starting spot back against Tottenham last weekend, but Habib Diarra also retained his position in a central attacking midfield role. He contributed an assist as Sunderland secured a vital 1-0 win, while the 22-year-old was also fouled twice in that match. Diarra is averaging 1.6 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has landed this selection in six of his last seven starts.

Villa are generally happy to sit in a mid-block, but when their opponents get into the final third Villa become a lot more aggressive in their duels, led by their midfielders. Diarra usually looks to operate in between the lines, so he should have plenty of duels to contest. Villa will need to limit the space Diarra has going forward, as he can be so dangerous in the final third.