I really like the look of this stat special, it should have a decent chance with the situation Barcelona find themselves in.

Barcelona need to score at least two goals to get back into this tie, so they will be on the front foot from the very first whistle. Atletico Madrid have built a stubborn identity under Diego Simeone, which hasn’t applied as much this season, but you would expect them to tap into that dogged nature here as they look to protect their two goal lead.

Barcelona managed seven shots on target in the meeting between the sides last week, two of which came from distance. They’ve managed 6+ shots on target in four of the five head to head meetings between the sides this season - managing 7+ shots on target in three of these games. Barcelona also boast healthy shot on target metrics in both LaLiga and the Champions League:

LaLiga: 7.30 shots on target per game
Champions League: 7.00 shots on target per game 

I’d expect this count to inflate further with the situation that Barcelona find themselves in, giving this angle a very decent chance at 9/1. If we look at the individual players that could help get this bet over the line as well, it strengthens the case for Barcelona to have at least four shots on target from distance:

Lamine Yamal: 31% shots from OTB 
Marcus Rashford: 36% shots from OTB 
Fermin Lopez: 40% shots from OTB 
Ferran Torres: 33% shots from OTB 
Dani Olmo: 60% shots from OTB 

(25/26 CL stats)

Joao Cancelo had two shots when these sides met last week, with one of these attempts finding the target. He’s pretty generously priced to find the target again here, especially given the situation that Barcelona find themselves in - needing to score at least twice to get back into this tie.

Barcelona are expected to have at least seven shots on target here if we go by the lines set by the bookmakers (8+ SOT - 2.20) so taking Cancelo at this price is much more appealing than taking other Barcelona players for a single shot on target here:

Lewandowski - 1.25
Yamal - 1.30
Rashford - 1.40
Torres - 1.44 

Cancelo is naturally quite forward thinking, he’s less of a fullback and more of an attacking midfielder with the positions he takes up similar to those occupied by Mendes and Hakimi for PSG. He’s taken 11 shots across his six stars for Barcelona in LaLiga (1.80 per 90) and maintained an average of 1.14 shots per 90 across his 21 starts in the Saudi Pro League last season.

Barcelona will be on the front foot from the first whistle and should be able to create opportunities for Cancelo when he advances from fullback. He likes to take efforts from distance as well, which could be particularly useful against an Atletico Madrid side that will be more inclined to sit deep here.

You can also back Cancelo for 2+ shots at 3.00, a double with both of the selections comes out at 4.75. 

Kvaratskhelia is in the middle of another brilliant Champions League campaign with PSG. When he gets going, it’s impossible to look away - he’s the best dribbler in the world, as far as I’m concerned, and he gave Liverpool a nightmare in the first leg, scoring one of his seven shots, with two of them on target.

That strike adds to the three goals he netted across two legs against Chelsea in the previous round, bringing his total to eight goals in ten Champions League starts - four more than he’s scored in Ligue 1 this season.

No PSG player has more Champions League goals than Kvaratskhelia. He’s reached that tally from 39 shots (4.43 per 90), with 12 on target (1.36 per 90). I expect him to cause Liverpool problems again, especially with the extra space he should get as Liverpool are forced to be bolder while chasing a way back into the tie.

Konate has really struggled this season. It started right at the beginning of the campaign, when he was bullied by Mateta and Sarr in the Community Shield, and he hasn’t really improved since - he keeps making costly errors for Liverpool.

Liverpool don’t have many other centre-back options to turn to, a result of not getting the Marc Guehi deal done in the summer, so Konate should keep his place here despite his poor form. PSG’s front three toyed with him in the first leg, forcing the Liverpool defender into four fouls as he was run ragged by Kvaratskhelia, Doue and Dembele.

Konate, and Liverpool’s backline as a whole, had real trouble handling the movement and energy of the PSG attack. The PSG front three won six fouls between them in the first leg, and they could tempt Konate into a few more mistakes in the second leg, with more space allowing them to isolate him in 1v1 situations - something he really struggles with

Lamine Yamal tried everything to get Barcelona back in the game after Pau Cubarsi was sent off in the first half for a careless challenge. He created three chances and had four shots despite Barcelona being reduced to 10 men, and should have a starring role here as Hansi Flick’s side attempt a comeback.

Yamal has registered nine goal contributions across nine starts in the Champions League this season (5 goals, 4 assists). He’s already matched his goal contribution tally from last season (39), showing that Yamal is improving from his already elite base - which is a scary thought for anyone that comes up against him. 

Yamal also has that good arrogance you need to orchestrate a comeback in the Champions League, and can lean on that to get Barcelona back in the tie. Atletico Madrid are more vulnerable at the back than they usually are under Diego Simeone, who has leaned towards a more expressive style of play this term which keeps this tie alive and gives Yamal plenty of motivation to register a goal or an assist.

As much praise as Alvarez is getting at the moment, I still think he’s underrated. There is often talk about there not being that many elite forwards at the moment, but Alvarez certainly falls into this category having netted a brilliant free kick against Barcelona in the first leg. 

That goal was one of two shots on target that Alvarez had in the first leg, and I think he’ll continue to test the high line of Barcelona again here - which should be even more vulnerable now that they are without Pau Cubarsi, who is suspended following his sending off from the first leg clash. 

Alvarez has scored nine goals across his 12 starts in the Champions League this campaign. He’s achieved this tally from 38 shots (3.40 per 90), seeing 19 of these efforts find the target (1.70 per 90). Alvarez is also maintaining an average of 1.23 shots on target per 90 in LaLiga this season.

Lamine Yamal tried everything to get Barcelona back in the game after Pau Cubarsi was sent off in the first half for a careless challenge. He created three chances and had four shots despite Barcelona being reduced to 10 men, and should have a starring role here as Hansi Flick’s side attempt a comeback.

Yamal has registered nine goal contributions across nine starts in the Champions League this season (5 goals, 4 assists). He’s already matched his goal contribution tally from last season (39), showing that Yamal is improving from his already elite base - which is a scary thought for anyone that comes up against him. 

Yamal also has that good arrogance you need to orchestrate a comeback in the Champions League, and can lean on that to get Barcelona back in the tie. Atletico Madrid are more vulnerable at the back than they usually are under Diego Simeone, who has leaned towards a more expressive style of play this term which keeps this tie alive and gives Yamal plenty of motivation to register a goal or an assist.

Kvaratskhelia has been sensational in the Champions League this season, registering 12 goal contributions across his 10 starts in the competition (8 goals, 4 assists) - five more goal contributions than any other PSG player in the Champions League.

He’s scored in each of his last four Champions League matches against the likes of Chelsea and Monaco - as well as scoring PSG’s second goal in their 2-0 win over Liverpool at the Parc Des Princes last week. 

PSG have scored more goals than any other side in the Champions League this season, and completely dominated Liverpool in the meeting between the sides last week. I think Kvaratskhelia will get more joy here, boosted by the extra space he should get when Liverpool go chasing the tie. 

Liverpool really struggled to contain PSG in the first leg meeting. Luis Enrique’s side made Liverpool look amateur at times with their rotations and constant movement, leading to Liverpool committing 12 fouls in the contest.

Alexis Mac Allister undertook the majority of the defensive work in the meeting between the sides last week, committing three fouls, but Gravenberch is at a slightly more appealing price for a caution - and has picked up two yellow cards across his 10 starts in the Champions League this term.

Gravenberch has cut a frustrated figure many times this season, also picking up five yellow cards across his 29 starts in the Premier League. He’ll have to contend with PSG’s midfield trio, but also the likes of Doue (2.28 fouls won per 90) and Kvaratskhelia (2.50 fouls won per 90) when they drop into deeper pockets, as they did constantly last week. 

You get the feeling that this will be a classic Simeone performance from Atletico Madrid. They haven’t really shown a lot of that dogged determination that we’ve come to associate with Atletico Madrid this season - but this situation demands a bit of those dark arts which Simeone is so good at.

Atletico Madrid committed 17 fouls and picked up three yellow cards when the sides met last week. Llorente committed one foul in that game, and his midfield partner in Koke was cautioned - committing three fouls inside just 60 minutes on the pitch. 

Llorente has collected two cards across his 10 starts in the Champions League this term, as well as five cards across his 21 starts in LaLiga. He was shown a yellow card in Atletico’s 4-0 victory over Barcelona in the Copa Del Rey earlier in the season, committing three fouls on that occasion. 

The build up to this game has been so entertaining to follow. From Lamine Yamal confidently talking up a comeback to Diego Simeone's rebuttal in his press conference - claiming that his Atletico Madrid side are ready for the fight of their lives to progress to the semi finals of the Champions League in what looks to be Simeone's final season at the club.

Unfortunately for Atletico Madrid, they are taking on the most exciting and forward thinking side in Europe - only really matched by PSG - and they have plenty of motivation to get on the scoresheet first here as they are 2-0 down from the first leg. Barcelona still racked up seven shots on target with 10 men in that game, and really need to score first to keep this tie alive.

Only PSG and Bayern Munich have scored more goals in the Champions League this season than Barcelona (2.70 goals per game), so Hansi Flick's side have the appropriate firepower to get back into this tie. Barcelona are as short as 1.57 to score first with other leading bookmakers - so getting 2.0 on William Hill with their Epic Boost is a price I can't ignore for tonight.