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Liverpool v PSG Longshot @ 14.88

Desire Doue scored the winning penalty when PSG knocked out Liverpool in the Champions League last season. That moment really kick-started his campaign with Doue going on to register eight goal contributions across his eight starts - including a man of the match performance in the final as PSG thrashed Inter Milan 5-0. 

Doue has been just as effective again in the Champions League this season, registering seven goal contributions across his five starts, with five of these being goals. He’s scored these five goals from just eight shots on target (1.30 per 90), suggesting that Doue is clinical when given the opportunity in the Champions League. 

Doue scored in the first leg with a deflected strike that looped over Mamardashvilli and should feel confident ahead of his trip to Anfield, having secured PSG’s progression to the quarter finals of the Champions League at the ground last season.

I’ve been a bit disappointed with Mac Allister this season after the high level he set last campaign. He’s looked a little sluggish, which isn’t a criticism solely reserved for the Argentinian - as Liverpool in general have lacked intensity, and are not running as much as they did last season. 

Mac Allister was cautioned after just 31 minutes in the first leg for a cynical foul to stop a counter attack. He went on to commit three fouls in the game, and struggled with the movement of PSG’s frontline and midfield. Liverpool in general did not have an answer to the clever rotations that Luis Enrique’s side put together - and you’d expect there to be even more gaps in this clash as Liverpool chase a way back into the contest.

Mac Allister has committed 14 fouls across his eight starts in the Champions League this season (1.62 per 90), which is a rate that we have already seen rise when faced by the effective rotations of PSG who have a variety of players that can force Mac Allister into committing a few lazy challenges.

One area I thought Liverpool would make more of in the first leg was set pieces. Arne Slot has moaned about teams using set pieces and marginal gains all season, but the fact remains that Liverpool’s only advantage over PSG is the physicality they can offer from set pieces. 

They’ve leveraged this in the Champions League this season, with Virgil Van Dijk pitching in with five goal contributions across his 11 starts in the Champions League. He’s taken 16 shots across these games (1.45 per 90) with 15 of these efforts being with his head. Four of these shots have found the target (0.36 per 90), which isn’t as promising, but the volume of efforts should give Van Dijk a decent chance of getting a single effort on target. 

Van Dijk is built for these big occasions, I do think Liverpool will be able to improve on the one corner they managed at the Parc Des Princes with their average jumping to around six corners per game when looking at their matches at Anfield in the Champions League this term.

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Football
Andy Robson

Andy's Tuesday UCL Cross-Match Player Bet Builder @ 5.50

Kvaratskhelia is in the middle of another brilliant Champions League campaign with PSG. When he gets going, it’s impossible to look away - he’s the best dribbler in the world, as far as I’m concerned, and he gave Liverpool a nightmare in the first leg, scoring one of his seven shots, with two of them on target.

That strike adds to the three goals he netted across two legs against Chelsea in the previous round, bringing his total to eight goals in ten Champions League starts - four more than he’s scored in Ligue 1 this season.

No PSG player has more Champions League goals than Kvaratskhelia. He’s reached that tally from 39 shots (4.43 per 90), with 12 on target (1.36 per 90). I expect him to cause Liverpool problems again, especially with the extra space he should get as Liverpool are forced to be bolder while chasing a way back into the tie.

Konate has really struggled this season. It started right at the beginning of the campaign, when he was bullied by Mateta and Sarr in the Community Shield, and he hasn’t really improved since - he keeps making costly errors for Liverpool.

Liverpool don’t have many other centre-back options to turn to, a result of not getting the Marc Guehi deal done in the summer, so Konate should keep his place here despite his poor form. PSG’s front three toyed with him in the first leg, forcing the Liverpool defender into four fouls as he was run ragged by Kvaratskhelia, Doue and Dembele.

Konate, and Liverpool’s backline as a whole, had real trouble handling the movement and energy of the PSG attack. The PSG front three won six fouls between them in the first leg, and they could tempt Konate into a few more mistakes in the second leg, with more space allowing them to isolate him in 1v1 situations - something he really struggles with

Lamine Yamal tried everything to get Barcelona back in the game after Pau Cubarsi was sent off in the first half for a careless challenge. He created three chances and had four shots despite Barcelona being reduced to 10 men, and should have a starring role here as Hansi Flick’s side attempt a comeback.

Yamal has registered nine goal contributions across nine starts in the Champions League this season (5 goals, 4 assists). He’s already matched his goal contribution tally from last season (39), showing that Yamal is improving from his already elite base - which is a scary thought for anyone that comes up against him. 

Yamal also has that good arrogance you need to orchestrate a comeback in the Champions League, and can lean on that to get Barcelona back in the tie. Atletico Madrid are more vulnerable at the back than they usually are under Diego Simeone, who has leaned towards a more expressive style of play this term which keeps this tie alive and gives Yamal plenty of motivation to register a goal or an assist.

As much praise as Alvarez is getting at the moment, I still think he’s underrated. There is often talk about there not being that many elite forwards at the moment, but Alvarez certainly falls into this category having netted a brilliant free kick against Barcelona in the first leg. 

That goal was one of two shots on target that Alvarez had in the first leg, and I think he’ll continue to test the high line of Barcelona again here - which should be even more vulnerable now that they are without Pau Cubarsi, who is suspended following his sending off from the first leg clash. 

Alvarez has scored nine goals across his 12 starts in the Champions League this campaign. He’s achieved this tally from 38 shots (3.40 per 90), seeing 19 of these efforts find the target (1.70 per 90). Alvarez is also maintaining an average of 1.23 shots on target per 90 in LaLiga this season.

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Football
Andy Robson

Andy's UCL Cross-Match Longshot @ 43.50

Lamine Yamal tried everything to get Barcelona back in the game after Pau Cubarsi was sent off in the first half for a careless challenge. He created three chances and had four shots despite Barcelona being reduced to 10 men, and should have a starring role here as Hansi Flick’s side attempt a comeback.

Yamal has registered nine goal contributions across nine starts in the Champions League this season (5 goals, 4 assists). He’s already matched his goal contribution tally from last season (39), showing that Yamal is improving from his already elite base - which is a scary thought for anyone that comes up against him. 

Yamal also has that good arrogance you need to orchestrate a comeback in the Champions League, and can lean on that to get Barcelona back in the tie. Atletico Madrid are more vulnerable at the back than they usually are under Diego Simeone, who has leaned towards a more expressive style of play this term which keeps this tie alive and gives Yamal plenty of motivation to register a goal or an assist.

Kvaratskhelia has been sensational in the Champions League this season, registering 12 goal contributions across his 10 starts in the competition (8 goals, 4 assists) - five more goal contributions than any other PSG player in the Champions League.

He’s scored in each of his last four Champions League matches against the likes of Chelsea and Monaco - as well as scoring PSG’s second goal in their 2-0 win over Liverpool at the Parc Des Princes last week. 

PSG have scored more goals than any other side in the Champions League this season, and completely dominated Liverpool in the meeting between the sides last week. I think Kvaratskhelia will get more joy here, boosted by the extra space he should get when Liverpool go chasing the tie. 

Liverpool really struggled to contain PSG in the first leg meeting. Luis Enrique’s side made Liverpool look amateur at times with their rotations and constant movement, leading to Liverpool committing 12 fouls in the contest.

Alexis Mac Allister undertook the majority of the defensive work in the meeting between the sides last week, committing three fouls, but Gravenberch is at a slightly more appealing price for a caution - and has picked up two yellow cards across his 10 starts in the Champions League this term.

Gravenberch has cut a frustrated figure many times this season, also picking up five yellow cards across his 29 starts in the Premier League. He’ll have to contend with PSG’s midfield trio, but also the likes of Doue (2.28 fouls won per 90) and Kvaratskhelia (2.50 fouls won per 90) when they drop into deeper pockets, as they did constantly last week. 

You get the feeling that this will be a classic Simeone performance from Atletico Madrid. They haven’t really shown a lot of that dogged determination that we’ve come to associate with Atletico Madrid this season - but this situation demands a bit of those dark arts which Simeone is so good at.

Atletico Madrid committed 17 fouls and picked up three yellow cards when the sides met last week. Llorente committed one foul in that game, and his midfield partner in Koke was cautioned - committing three fouls inside just 60 minutes on the pitch. 

Llorente has collected two cards across his 10 starts in the Champions League this term, as well as five cards across his 21 starts in LaLiga. He was shown a yellow card in Atletico’s 4-0 victory over Barcelona in the Copa Del Rey earlier in the season, committing three fouls on that occasion. 

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Boosts

Football
Super Boost

Super Boost: Dominik Szoboszlai 1+ Shots on Target @ 2.00

Dominik Szoboszlai has easily been Liverpool's best player this season. He's developed his game beyond just being a player that can cover a lot of ground and work hard for the team, to a player that shows real quality in the final third - and he's been particularly strong in the Champions League this season.

Szoboszlai has registered nine goal contributions across his 11 starts in the Champions League for Liverpool this season, more than any other Liverpool player. Five of these have been goals, which is a tally he's achieved from 29 shots (2.71 per 90), 14 of which have managed to find the target (1.31 per 90).

Liverpool need to score at least two goals to get back into this tie, so you would expect Arne Slot's side to be on the front foot from the first whistle here. This is something that Arne Slot confirmed in his press conference yesterday, suggesting that Liverpool would have to take plenty of 'risks' if they wanted to have a special night at Anfield on Tuesday.

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Super Boost

Turbo Boost: 1+ Goal in Each Half in Liverpool v PSG @ 2.00

This is a great value boost for Tuesday night as Liverpool look to get back into the tie against PSG, after losing the first leg 2-0 at the Parc Des Princes. This selection would have landed in the meeting between the sides last week with Luis Enrique's side striking either side of half time, making them odds on favourites to progress to the next round of the Champions League.

PSG have scored more goals than any other side in the Champions League this season, and have seen a goal in each half in each of their last five Champions League games. PSG could easily cover this line on their own again with the vast array of talent they have in forward areas, as well as the extra space they should be afforded in this game with Liverpool chasing the tie.

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Super Boost

Super Boost: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 1+ Shots On Target @ 2.00

Kvaratskhelia is enjoying another stellar campaign for PSG in the Champions League. You can’t take your eyes off him when he’s in full flow. He’s the best dribbler in the world in my view, and he tortured Liverpool in the first leg, scoring from one of his seven shots in the game - two of which managed to find the target.

That goal builds on the three goals Kvaratskhelia scored across two legs against Chelsea in the last round of the Champions League, taking his total tally to eight goals across 10 starts in the competition, which is actually four more goals than he’s managed in Ligue 1 this campaign. 

No PSG player has scored more goals in the Champions League than Kvaratskhelia, who has achieved his eight-goal tally from 39 shots (4.43 per 90), seeing 12 of these efforts find the target (1.36 per 90). I think he’ll be able to cause Liverpool problems again here, aided by the extra space he should be afforded with Liverpool having to be a bit more bold in their approach as they chase a route back into the contest.

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Tips Feed

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia - to have 1+ Shots on Target

1d ago

Vitinha - to have 1+ Shots

1d ago

Ibrahima Konate - to Commit 2+ Fouls

1d ago

Over 2.5 - Goals

1d ago

Desire Doue - Anytime Goalscorer

1d ago

Alexis Mac Allister - to Commit 2+ Fouls

1d ago

Virgil van Dijk - to have 1+ Shots on Target

1d ago