Did you know Liverpool have failed to win any of their last 10 away matches against Everton? It surprised me when I saw that stat, but it’s a good omen for this leg of our Bet Builder. 

Everton have plenty to play for in this derby as they welcome their local rivals, who are probably as weak as they have been in the last five years. Everton have scored in four of their last five matches across all competitions, only failing to score against Arsenal in this sequence on the road. 

David Moyes’ side welcome a Liverpool side that have lost four of their last five matches across all competitions, notably conceding 2+ goals in all four of these defeats. Everton managed to get on the scoresheet when these sides clashed at Anfield earlier in the season - managing nine shots and an xG of 0.70 as they fell to a 2-1 defeat.

Everton have scored 21 goals across their 16 home games in the Premier League this season (1.31 per game), which lines up well with Liverpool’s record on the road - Arne Slot’s side have conceded 25 goals across their 16 away games in the Premier League this term, which is already as many as they conceded on the road last season, despite three away games reminding of the campaign.

Everton have plenty to play for here. They’re in a race to finish in a European spot for the first time in over five years, a win here would move them to within two points of Liverpool - and blow the race for a Champions League spot wide open.

Mamardashvili is filling in for Alisson at the moment for Liverpool, which is a massive blow for Arne Slot ahead of a crucial derby. Mamardashvili is not a bad keeper, but he’s definitely a drop off from the quality of Alisson - who has, at times, single handedly kept Liverpool in games of this nature.

Mamardashvili was forced into making three saves as Liverpool lost 2-0 to PSG during the week. Obviously David Moyes’ side don’t quite have the potency in attack of Dembele, Doue and Kvaratskhelia - but they do have players that can test the keeper, including Ndiaye and Dewsbury-Hall, who I’ve been really impressed with this season.

A more accurate comparison would be Mamardashvili's performance against Fulham last time out. He was forced into making four saves, with the Cottagers racking up 19 shots in total.

James Tarkowski is such an underrated centre back. He rarely puts a foot wrong, and is perfectly suited to the temperature of the Premier League - which has been tuned towards physicality and aerial duels, his bread and butter.

Tarkowski has won 31 fouls across his 31 starts in the Premier League this season (1.00 per 90). This is a really strong record for a centre back, and only really matched by Ezri Konsa in the Premier League - who is another player we regularly back to win fouls.

Tarkowski was fouled once when these sides met earlier in the season, and will be faced up by Cody Gakpo with Ekitike and Isak expected to be sidelined for this clash. Gakpo can be clumsy with his challenges, especially when playing out of position, and is averaging 1.40 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League - also committing a foul when these sides last met.

The initial league meeting between these sides produced nine match corners, just one below the line we require here. Corners have been an integral part of the Premier League this season, the 25/26 season has seen more goals from non-penalty set pieces than we have in each of the last 10 seasons.

Both of these sides have utilised corners pretty often this season. It’s a natural association you make when watching David Moyes’ sides, but Arne Slot has leant more towards these set piece situations as the season has gone on - no side has won more corners on the road than Liverpool in the Premier League this term (6.00 per game).

This is particularly interesting, as Slot came out a few weeks ago and complained about sides wanting to play in this way, focusing on marginal gains and set piece situations, but his side have become part of the trend. Everton are also pretty good for corners at home, averaging 5.31 corners per game across their 16 games at the Hill Dickinson Stadium this term.

This exact stat special met when the sides met earlier in the season:

36 Tackles (18 Liverpool, 18 Everton)
46 Throw Ins (23 Liverpool, 23 Everton)
2 Offsides (1 Liverpool, 1 Everton)

I'm happy to take it again at this price. It's definitely a bet you have to be patient with, but I think it's a good angle for a derby that can disappoint at times when compared to the build up it is given. There's plenty for both sides to fight for as well, Liverpool pretty much need to finish in a Champions League spot after their poor season following their title success while Everton can still qualify for Europe - a win for the Toffees moves them within two points of their Merseyside rivals, which should be all the motivation that David Moyes' side need to make this a competitive contest.

Notably, this bet also came within inches of landing when Liverpool last faced Everton away from home, only falling short by four throw ins. This will be the first time that they venture to the Hill Dickinson, but the last meeting at Goodison also offers promise for this unique stat special:

37 Tackles (19 Everton, 18 Liverpool)
38 Throw Ins (19 Everton, 19 Liverpool)
5 Offsides (3 Everton, 2 Liverpool)

It looks like this will come down to the throw-ins, but at 13.0 it's worth having a small go at this special - which could be the smart angle to take in a derby that tends to be more about grit and passion rather than footballing quality.

Ndiaye is a proper winger. I’ve been a bit disappointed with the quality of wide players in the Premier League this season, but Ndiaye is always a joy to watch and I think he can have an impact here.

Ndiaye is comfortably Everton’s biggest threat in the final third, even when Grealish is fit I think Ndiaye provides Everton with that extra penetration, which they can miss at times from their other forwards. Only Dewsbury-Hall (10) has registered more goal contributions for Everton this season than Ndiaye (9). Dewsbury-Hall is overachieving his combined xG + xA by 2.20, so I’d still say that Ndiaye’s is Everton’s main threat here.

Ndiaye comes into this game in good form too having registered a goal contribution in two of his last five Premier League starts. He was replaced after 25 minutes due to injury when the sides met last season - so he may also have a bit of a point to prove here.

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is perfect for a club like Everton. He’s not really capable of making that step up to the elite level, as we saw during his time at Chelsea, but it’s clear that he has plenty to offer at this level.

Only Tim Iroegbunam and James Garner (8) have picked up more yellow cards than Dewsbury-Hall this season (6), with Dewsbury-Hall picking up these cautions across just 24 starts in the Premier League. He’s committed 26 fouls across these games (1.11 per 90), which is actually pretty modest for his card count - but we can expect it to increase here.

Dewsbury-Hall was shown a card when these sides met earlier in the season, despite not committing a foul in the game. This shows the potential for yellow cards away from what Dewsbury-Hall does on the pitch - with there often being situations that produce yellow cards without fouls in games like this. 

If Manchester City do go on to win the Premier League, I think we’ll look back to two key January signings which got them over the line - Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guehi. Semenyo has been really impressive for Guardiola’s side since making the move from Bournemouth and has registered 19 goal contributions across his 30 starts for both clubs this term.

Semenyo has recorded 11 goal contributions across just 19 appearances for Manchester City across all competitions since joining the club, with only Erling Haaland netting more goals for Manchester City in this period. It’s important that City signed Semenyo as Foden wasn’t quite operating at the high level we’ve seen him set over the last few campaigns, leaving Haaland as City’s only real goal threat which made Guardiola’s side over reliant on the forward.

Semenyo recorded a goal and an assist against Liverpool in City’s recent FA Cup tie against Arne Slot’s side, so he enters this game in decent form. I think City will have quite a few chances here against an Arsenal side which looks vulnerable at the moment, paving the way for Semenyo to register a goal contribution.

The last time the sides met at the Etihad, Rodri had to be replaced after 21 minutes in what would turn out to be a career-changing injury. Manchester City never quite managed to recover from his loss last season, but now have him back at the perfect time in the campaign as City look to close the gap at the top to just three points.

Rodri should probably pick up a few more cards from his foul count (0.88 per 90), but he is clever with some of his challenges and quickly hurries away from the referee when he knows he’s committed a foul worthy of a caution. He’s picked up two yellow cards across his 15 starts in the Premier League this campaign, and will be tasked with halting Arsenal when they look to break quickly after sustained City attacks.

This situation puts Rodri in the perfect position to commit a few tactical fouls, which nearly always results in a caution. I’d also keep an eye on Rodri for a goal here, that may sound a bit strange but he’s got a habit of striking from range for City in the big matches - and has plenty of motivation to get on the scoresheet against the side he suffered a major injury against when the sides last met at the Etihad.