Back Mexico to hit the ground running with a win over South Africa on Thursday night. El Tri won the 2025 Gold Cup last summer and have been ticking along nicely since then.

In fact, Mexico are unbeaten in eight friendly matches since the turn of the year, winning six of them, the most impressive of which saw them thrash Serbia 5-1 last Friday. Therefore, Javier Aguirre’s side will head into this curtain-raiser brimming with confidence, and a passionate home crowd can spur them on to victory.

As for South Africa, they look the weakest side on paper in Group A and notably lost two of their four matches at the Africa Cup of Nations earlier this year. Since then, Bafana Bafana have failed to win any of their subsequent four friendlies, which does little to inspire confidence ahead of the cauldron that awaits them at the Mexico City Stadium.

Not only am I expecting Mexico to win on Thursday night, but I also fancy them to score at least a couple of goals en route to victory.

Javier Aguirre’s side put five past Serbia last week and have demonstrated their attacking firepower throughout the year, as they also registered multiple goals in friendly wins over Ghana and Iceland. El Tri also netted twice in their Gold Cup final triumph over the USA last July.

South Africa, on the other hand, have looked vulnerable defensively for much of the calendar year. Hugo Broos’ side conceded two goals against both Zimbabwe and Cameroon at the Africa Cup of Nations, while their backline was also breached on multiple occasions in a friendly defeat to Panama at the end of March.

I’m keen to back Raul Jimenez to commit two or more fouls. The Mexico forward leads the line with plenty of aggression and physicality, which often results in him getting on the wrong side of the referee.

As one of the co-hosts, Mexico haven’t had any competitive fixtures for some time, but that hasn’t stopped Jimenez from picking up fouls at a steady rate. Across his three friendly appearances in 2026, he has averaged 1.45 fouls per game for Mexico. Notably, the veteran forward was penalised on no fewer than three occasions against Serbia last week, despite only featuring for the opening hour of the match.

That trend has also been evident at club level. During the recently concluded Premier League season, Jimenez averaged 1.88 fouls per 90 for Fulham, being penalised at least twice in four of his final six starts of the campaign.

Look for Julian Quinones to register a minimum of one shot on target on Thursday night. The Mexican winger is a player who likes to try his luck in front of goal at any given opportunity.

That is underlined by the fact that Quinones has averaged a whopping 4.46 shots per game across his last four appearances for his country. In terms of his shots on target output, the 29-year-old worked the opposition goalkeeper during last week’s 5-1 thrashing of Serbia, while he also registered two on-target efforts against Belgium earlier this year.

Those trends have also been evident on the domestic scene this season, with Quinones averaging 4.46 shots per 90 and 1.94 shots on target per game for club side Al-Qadsiah.

I’m more than happy to back Lyle Foster to be fouled at least once on Thursday night.

The Burnley forward is expected to lead the line for South Africa, meaning he should come in for plenty of close attention from Mexico’s centre-backs. Foster was fouled a combined total of three times across his four appearances at this year’s Africa Cup of Nations.

The 25-year-old also drew free kicks on a relatively consistent basis in the most recent Premier League season. In fact, Foster was fouled an average of 0.92 times per game for Burnley in the English top-flight this term, which only strengthens the case for him to earn his side a minimum of one free-kick here.

What’s more, Mexico’s expected centre-back pairing of Cesar Montes and Johan Vazquez have committed respective averages of 1.01 and 1.66 fouls per game over their last four appearances for their country.

Raul Jimenez undoubtedly represents Mexico’s biggest attacking threat, and I think he looks well placed to either score or assist against South Africa on Thursday night. The 35-year-old forward has racked up a quietly impressive return of 45 goals in 126 appearances for his country, alongside 16 assists for good measure.

The most recent of those goals came against Serbia last week, meaning he has now scored 10 times on the international stage since the beginning of 2025. It should also be noted that the experienced frontman found the net in last year’s Gold Cup triumph, underlining his knack for delivering in big moments on the biggest occasions.

The fact that Jimenez registered 12 goal involvements across his 36 appearances for Fulham in the Premier League last season adds further weight to siding with this selection.

Lyle Foster looks too big to ignore when attempting two or more shots. He is likely to spearhead South Africa’s attack on Thursday night, so he should have ample opportunity to register at least two efforts on goal.

Moreover, Foster fired two or more shots in three of his four appearances at AFCON earlier this year, including four against Cameroon and three against Angola. The Burnley forward has since delivered at least two attempts in South Africa’s friendlies against both Panama and Nicaragua.

Foster also averaged 1.31 shots per game in the Premier League last season. That return is far from poor when you factor in that he was playing in a struggling Burnley side, with a number of his appearances coming from the substitute bench.

Back Teboho Mokoena to commit two or more fouls on Thursday night. The all-action South African midfielder is likely to find himself right in the thick of the midfield battle in this Group A opener.

Mokoena’s combative streak was on full display at the Africa Cup of Nations earlier this year, where he racked up a combined total of seven fouls across his four appearances. South Africa have since played Panama in a pair of friendlies, with Mokoena overstepping the mark on multiple occasions in each of those two fixtures.

He also featured at last summer’s Club World Cup for Mamelodi Sundowns, where he gave away two free kicks against Fluminense despite featuring for just 46 minutes.

Mokoena could find himself operating in similar areas of the pitch to Mexico wonderkid Gilberto Mora, who has drawn a sizeable average of 5.10 fouls per game across his last three international appearances.

Johan Vazquez appeals to register one or more shots on target on Thursday night.

The Mexico defender has been testing opposition goalkeepers with impressive regularity in recent times. In fact, the 27-year-old has scored in each of his last two appearances for Mexico, including last week’s 5-1 demolition of Serbia.

Looking further back, Vazquez has also hit the target in friendlies against both South Korea and Uruguay during the second half of 2025. He also got himself on the scoresheet for club side Genoa against AC Milan on the penultimate weekend of the recently concluded Serie A season.

That attacking threat from defence is difficult to ignore, and with Mexico expected to take the more front-foot approach here, Vazquez should again have opportunities to threaten from set-piece situations on Thursday night.

Edson Alvarez has endured an injury-hit season at Fenerbahce, but he has returned just in time for the World Cup. The 28-year-old is expected to lead his national side as captain, and he should be involved in the opening game here against South Africa. It’s a winnable game on paper for Mexico, and the host nation are likely to be front-footed and aggressive in their approach. 

Alvarez was carded in Mexico’s final warm-up friendly before the World Cup, despite only featuring for the second half. Additionally, it wasn’t the most competitive match, finishing 5-1 against Serbia. 

The former West Ham man made 17 appearances across all competitions this season, and he was shown six yellow cards. In his debut season for the Hammers, Alvarez was booked 17 times from 42 appearances, which shows how he is no stranger to the referee’s notebook.

Khuliso Mudau is expected to start at right back for South Africa at the World Cup, which means he could have a tough matchup against Julian Quinones on the flank for this opening fixture. The 29-year-old scored 33 goals in 31 appearances across all competitions this season, playing for Al-Qadsiah in the Saudi Pro League. Quinones is one of the most dangerous players in the final third for Mexico, so Mudau should have plenty of defensive involvement. 

The full back currently plays for Mamelodi Sundowns, a team who usually dominate their domestic league, but he still picked up 10 yellow cards in 33 appearances across all competitions this campaign. The 31-year-old can often be quite aggressive in his challenges, and this matchup against Quinones will be a step up from the opponents he is used to facing.

Hwang Hee-Chan made 26 appearances for Wolves this season in the Premier League, with just 18 of those being starts. The striker averaged just 56 minutes per match, but he should have a far greater responsibility for his national side at the World Cup this summer. He didn’t have the desired effect, having only scored two league goals. In fact, he managed more yellow cards than goals, with five bookings to his name. 

Hwang has shown a willingness to drop deeper at times to help out his defence - a testament to his impressive work rate. The 30-year-old had an average of 1.73 fouls per 90 last season. There is very little to split South Korea and Czechia on paper, and this match could have massive ramifications on how Group A plays out, so it promises to be quite a competitive affair.

Wolves ranked top of the Premier League charts for total fouls committed in the 25/26 season, so it comes as no surprise that Ladislav Krejci is also a player to target in the cards market. The centre back had an average of 1.11 fouls per 90, which translated to six yellows and one red from his 34 appearances across all competitions. 

Krejci is given a huge responsibility for his national side, and he wears the captain's armband. He played a huge role in their qualification to the World Cup, scoring in both play-off matches, and he had an average of 1.66 fouls per game in Czechia’s nine qualifying games. The 27-year-old was fortunate to escape with just two bookings in that time, considering he recorded at least two fouls in eight of those matches.

I’ve already highlighted Erik Lira as someone to keep an eye on over the course of the tournament, particularly for cards and fouls. 

I’m expecting him to show his aggressive nature from the very first game of the World Cup, he sits at the base of Mexico’s midfield and has committed 15 fouls across eight friendly matches for Mexico in the build up to the competition (2.74 per 90).

He also picked up seven cards domestically last season, so he’s clearly a player to keep an eye on if Mexico do go far at this tournament - it looks like he’s favoured ahead of Edson Alvarez, and it’s possible that his odds for fouls and cards shorten when more people realise just how mental he can be. 

Mexico put five goals past Serbia in their final warm-up game before the World Cup. There’s clearly a very positive atmosphere around the camp, which will only be aided by the side being surrounded by their own fans in all three group games.

They’re taking on the weakest side in Group A in my opinion, South Africa have failed to win any of their warm-up games for the World Cup and also had a pretty kind qualifying group to reach the competition - I think they struggle with the intensity Mexico will play with, as well as the altitude of Estadio Azteca.

South Africa conceded two goals against Panama in their most recent friendly, and also saw 2+ goals in two of their three group games at the African Cup of Nations. I expect Mexico to cover this line on their own in a comfortable victory for the host nation. 

Czechia were very aggressive during qualifying, averaging 15.6 fouls per game - only Lithuania and Bosnia committed more fouls than Miroslav Koubek’s side who will definitely leverage their physicality against a weaker Korea side on paper.

Czechia committed 20 fouls in both of their play-off games to reach the World Cup against Ireland and Denmark. Both of these games did see extra time, but Czechia managed to cover this foul line in normal time in both matches. 

Czechia are very direct and look to make the most of set pieces where they can, 45% of their goals during qualifying came from set pieces - on closer inspection, this is where their foul tallies increase as they tend to be overly physical from these attacking situations. 

Patrick Schick could be a real threat for Czechia at the World Cup, he scored five goals during qualifying which was three more than any other player. 

He’s got a pretty solid record at international level for a nation that don’t have a lot of players to provide him service. He’s netted 26 goals across his 53 caps for his country - and comes into the tournament following a successful season with Leverkusen, scoring 22 goals across 42 appearances.

His five goals during qualifying came from 12 shots on target overall, working out to an average of 1.60 shots on target per 90. 

Mexico are one of the host nations at the World Cup and carry real momentum into the tournament - they haven’t lost any of their eight matches this year. 

I’ve managed to sort an unbelievable boost for them to win either half of their opening game against South Africa. They’re 1.20 to win either half of the game, but we’re getting 2.0 which is a price that’s too good to ignore.

Mexico have not lost at Estadio Azteca since a World Cup Qualifier against Honduras back in 2013. They’ve got a real advantage with all three of their group games being in Mexico, with two of the games being at the famous stadium.

This is particularly relevant due to the altitude. The stadium sits 7,200 feet above sea level posing a unique challenge to visiting teams, but the majority of the Mexican squad will be familiar with this challenge. 

South Africa are the weakest side in Group A for me. They had a very kind qualifying group and have failed to win any of their warmup matches for the World Cup. It’s hard to see how they cause Mexico any major problems, they’re priced around 8.5 to win this game so it’s really unlikely we see a surprise. 

This is a great boost to get our World Cup train going, I'm all over it. 

Raul Jimenez is the top scorer in the Mexico squad with 46 goals across his 126 caps.

He found the target three times in Mexico's final warm-up game against Serbia, also finding the back of the net with one of these efforts.

Mexico's game plan focuses on trying to pick out Jimenez from crosses with their fullbacks often pushing up quite high to find him in dangerous areas.

You can back the striker to have a shot on target @ 2.0 by clicking the link below 👇