AC Milan v Fiorentina

Milan’s topsy-turvy season continued in typical fashion, as The Rossoneri overturned the form charts to hold city rivals, Inter, to a 1-1 midweek draw in the Coppa Italia.

This was in stark contrast to recent league performances in which they’ve looked fatigued, dejected, and unmotivated, which is unsurprising given they’ll be fighting an uphill battle to obtain any form of European football for next season, let alone the Champions League.

Fiorentina, too, have seen a downturn in form, although a recent resurgence has featured back-to-back wins and clean sheets against Atalanta and bitter rivals Juventus.

With these sides separated by just four points and one place, this should be an interesting affair, with the pair both in possession of an outside chance of obtaining Europa League football.

⭐ AC Milan v Fiorentina Best Bet

Back AC Milan Corner Match Bet @ 1.62 with bet365

Milan have quietly established themselves as one of Serie A’s most reliable sides in the corner market. Averaging 5.53 corners per game, they’ve hit five or more in 22 of 30 league fixtures. Defensively, they’re equally impressive, limiting opponents to just 3.87 corners on average.

Fiorentina paint a very different picture. Despite a respectable season overall, they rank among the league’s poorest for corners won, averaging just 3.93 per match, dropping to a dismal 3.29 when away from home. At the other end, they allow more corners than Milan too, conceding 4.13 per 90.

As such, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to hear that Milan have won the corner count in 12 of their last 16 league outings, whereas Fiorentina have managed just two such wins in their previous 10.

👕 AC Milan v Fiorentina Predicted XI

🔍 AC Milan v Fiorentina Players to Watch

🔴 Strahinja Pavlovic

Despite being consistently criticised for lapses in positioning, Pavlovic’s ability in one-on-one duels remains unquestioned. 

Across all competitions, Pavlovic has averaged 2.65 tackles per game, a figure that climbs slightly to 2.71 in Serie A. Additionally, the centre-back has hit the 3+ tackle mark in 10 of his last 13 appearances, including each of his most recent four outings.

With a head-to-head against the physical and in-form Moise Kean on the cards, Pavlovic is likely to be heavily involved defensively, particularly given Kean’s strength in hold-up play and ability to draw contact.

Back Strahinja Pavlovic Over 2.5 Tackles @ 2.38 with bet365 🔛

📂 AC Milan v Fiorentina Cheat Sheet

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💻 AC Milan v Fiorentina Form and Tactics

With both sides vying for European football, the tactical battle between Conceicao's Milan and Raffaele Paladino’s Fiorentina promises to be intriguing.

Perhaps the most notable feature of Milan's setup is their intense high press, aiming to disrupt the opponent's buildup play by applying pressure high up the pitch.

Milan will look to win the ball back quickly before pressing and probing until they find a way through the Fiorentina defence. La Viola’s defensive setup under Palladino has been pretty robust, with teams typically finding them difficult to break down.

Fiorentina have conceded 30 goals across their 30 games, and are likely to look to hit Milan on the counter, something Conceicao’s men have been vulnerable to this season.

Boasting the league’s 4th-highest PPDA, Fiorentina won’t mind sitting back in their mid-block and allowing Milan to control most of possession, particularly given they’re on the road.

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🏁 AC Milan v Fiorentina Ref Watch

• Referee: Giovanni Ayroldi

  Fouls pg	Yellows pg	Reds pg
  28.00	6.13	0.50

  (Per game data from Ayroldi's 8 Serie A matches this season)

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.