Ajax v Twente

• Ajax have scored fewer than 3 goals in 79% of their league games.

• Ajax threw away a 9-point lead at the top of the table with just five games remaining.

• Ajax have picked up just 2 points from a possible 12.

Not long ago, it looked like Ajax had the Eredivisie all wrapped up, boasting a 9-point lead with just five games remaining.

They needed just six points from their final five games to clinch a 37th Dutch title, something that seemed to be a reasonable ask given their rate of over 2.5 points per game up until that point.

Since then, a dramatic turnaround saw Francesco Farioli’s men pick up just 2 points from a possible 12, with PSV now in complete control, topping the league with 76 points, one more than Ajax’s total of 75.

Ajax’s goal difference of 33 is significantly below PSV’s total of 62, meaning only a win could keep their hopes alive, as unlikely as a turnaround would be.

As for Twente, they have fairly little to play for, sitting in 6th position, but out of reach of the top-four, which would offer European football for next season. 

⭐ Ajax v Twente Predictions and Best Bets

Given Ajax’s dismal form, Ajax look overpriced to score fewer than three goals at 1.57.  They’ve failed to surpass the mark in 79% of league matches, with their struggles predating their drastic downturn in form. In recent matches, Ajax have looked fatigued, distraught, and depleted, and the psychological effects of their poor form will only have been exacerbated by falling behind PSV in the league.

Similarly, there could also be value in backing under 3.5 match goals at 1.73, a selection that has come home in 67% of Ajax’s matches and 64% of FC Twente’s. 9 of Twente’s last 12 league games have seen the net ripple fewer than four times, as have 10 of Ajax’s most recent 11.

⚪ Ajax Capitulate Just Before the Finish Line

As mentioned, Ajax’s last four have seen them pick up just two points, losing to Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen, and drawing with Sparta Rotterdam and, most recently, Groningen.

What is even more alarming for Ajax is that both losses consisted of heavy defeats, with Francesco Farioli’s men losing 7-0 on aggregate across the pair of matches.

In their last outing, Ajax conceded a 99th-minute equaliser to 10-man Groningen, who had been the better of the sides up until that point, and fully deserved the late goal.

The expected goals tally finished 1.92 - 1.10 in Groningen’s favour; for reference, Groningen currently sit in 12th position in what is their first season back since earning promotion last year.

🔵 FC Twente Struggle to Replicate Early Form

Although the difference is by no means comparable to that of Ajax, FC Twente have also endured a mild downturn in form towards the end of the season.

Joseph Oosting’s side picked up 68% of their 54 points in the first half of the season, and have struggled for consistency as of late.

Their most recent 8 has consisted of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, although this was shortly preceded by a six-game unbeaten run.

With little to play for, it remains to be seen how FC Twente will perform, but perhaps they will be conscious of the fact that this game could be a topic of conversation for years to come, with Ajax crumbling under pressure in spectacular fashion.

📊 Ajax v FC Twente Head-to-Head Key Stats

Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, it’s FC Twente who boast the better of the head-to-head records, having recorded two wins and a draw across the most recent four.

Only one of those clashes occurred under the current managers, with that game unfolding in Enschede and ending 2-2.

On that occasion, Ajax had the upper hand, creating an impressive 2.89xG, although they also conceded 1.80, which is certainly less than ideal.

The fact that they accomplished this away from home should encourage them, although the context of this match will represent a substantial burden and could easily have a significant effect on the result.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.