💎 Gem Bet: Daniel Podence - Over 0.5 Fouls @ 1.73 (bet365)

✅ bet365 - 1.73
Paddy Power - 1.33
SkyBet - 1.33

The fixture list doesn’t stop, and already we’re into the second round of elite European football. My Gem streak sits at 6 from 6, and I believe I’ve uncovered another spot that can take us to a perfect 7, with one of the biggest odds disparities yet.

Daniel Podence to commit at least 1 foul against Arsenal on Wednesday night is outrageously overpriced at 1.73 with bet365, especially considering he’s as low as 1.33 elsewhere. At first glance, this might raise eyebrows given his fouling record in previous seasons, but his recent numbers and the matchup he faces make this selection stand out.

Since joining Olympiacos from Al Shabab in the summer, Podence has started just twice but already averages 1.47 fouls per 90, embodying the high-pressing, aggressive defensive style of the Greek side. Most notably, he committed two fouls on Matchday 1 against debutants Pafos, underlining how quickly discipline can be tested in European nights, especially in a game where Olympiacos are frustrated and unable to gain the upper hand.

The step up on Wednesday will be far greater. Podence is set to be tested down Arsenal’s right flank by Bukayo Saka (1.97 fouls won per 90), Martin Ødegaard (1.03), and Jurrien Timber (1.38); a trio adept at drawing contact and forcing defensive errors.

Add to that Arsenal’s expected dominance in possession and territory, and Podence is in for a long night of chasing, pressing, and recovering.

The Sub On Play On safety net only strengthens the case. In Olympiacos’ last game, his replacement Rémy Cabella added two fouls of his own, bringing their total from that position to three, more than enough to clear this line.

At 1.73, this price is far too generous when compared to the much shorter lines elsewhere. For me, this has all the makings of Gem number seven.