Vinicius Jr seems to save his best performances for this competition, he’s registered nine goal contributions across his 10 appearances in the Champions League this campaign - no player has recorded more goal contributions for Madrid in the Champions League this season than Vinicius Jr which makes him more than likely to trouble the Arsenal backline here.

Only Mbappe (2.3) and the lesser featured Endrick (1.7) are averaging more shots on target per 90 in the Champions League than Vinicius Jr this season (1.6) with Real Madrid averaging 6.8 shots on target per game as a team which suggests that Arsenal will have some issues in controlling this relentless Madrid attack, especially in the absence of Gabriel who was ruled out for the remainder of the season after picking up an injury last week.

Vinicius Jr has had a shot on target in nine of his ten Champions League appearances this season with the exception coming in the second leg of Madrid’s round of 16 clash against Atletico Madrid. This is very much a meeting of attack against defence in which Vinicius Jr should be able to carve out a few chances to find the target.

Real Madrid have drawn 2+ saves from the opposition keeper in nine of their 10 games in the Champions League this season, the exception coming against RB Salzburg in their 5-1 win over the Austrian side back in the group stage. 

David Raya is averaging 2.11 saves per game in the Champions League this season which is a record that could be stretched to rise here by Real Madrid when considering that Los Blancos are averaging 6.8 shots on target per game in the Champions League this season.

Raya may be called into action here more frequently than usual given that Arsenal will be without Gabriel who picked up a season-ending injury last week in a big blow to Arsenal’s chances of coming through this tie. Even if Arsenal are able to accommodate for Gabriel’s absence and quell Madrid’s attacking threat, Raya should still be forced into actions a few times here in line with his average in the competition this term.

Arsenal have seen under 3.5 goals in seven of their 10 games in the Champions League this season. First leg meetings at this stage of the competition are usually tight with no immediate consequence following the result leaving the tie tight until the second meeting in the coming weeks.

Arsenal are quite defensively minded and packed with tactical instructions which can have a negative effect on the entertainment value when watching the Gunners but there is no doubting that this approach is effective in the Champions League where there are often fine margins and tight tussles between European heavyweights.

Real Madrid have only seen under 3.5 goals in five of their 12 games in the Champions League but Arsenal should dictate the direction of proceedings here as the home side. There won’t be much space for Madrid on the transition which is where they have been most effective this campaign which should result in a low scoring encounter that sets up the second leg well.

Real Madrid have been shown 30 yellow cards in the Champions League this season - more than any other side in the competition. Madrid have played a few extra games than the majority of the sides still left in the competition after finishing mid-table in the league stage which is something that contributes to this record but it still works out as 2.5 cards per game.

Real Madrid have received 2+ cards in seven of their 12 games in the Champions League this season (58%). They had a particular problem with discipline in the league stages which hasn’t quite carried over to the knockout stages but could start filtering through here as we reach the business end of the Champions League.

Mbappe hasn’t managed to escape the routine criticism that comes with leading the line for Real Madrid despite registering 38 goal contributions across his 47 appearances for Los Blancos this term - eight of which have come in the Champions League across 12 appearances which is a very decent record for this level of football.

Mbappe has found himself slightly frustrated since returning from the international break, he did score a brace against Leganes but failed to register a goal contribution in the subsequent games against Real Sociedad and Valencia. These were games that exposed some of the gaps in the Madrid team as a whole but Carlo Ancelotti’s side seem to put domestic struggles to one side in this competition as we’ve seen in previous campaigns.

Real Madrid have scored 28 goals across their 12 games in the Champions League this season (2.3 per game) which would indicate that they will get chances at the Emirates despite the Gunners’ impressive defensive record this season. Mbappe will be encouraged by the injury to Gabriel which pits him up against an inexperienced Kiwior who is likely to struggle with Mbappe’s speed and intelligent movement.

Arsenal are really strong in the middle of the park. Rice, Odegaard, and Partey form a formidable midfield trio that combines a lot of the key aspects you need in the middle of the park. Odegaard in particular will benefit massively from the return of Bukayo Saka which puts Eduardo Camavinga right in the firing line to pick up a caution here.

Camavinga has picked up two yellow cards across his eight appearances in the Champions League this season which is a record that becomes more standout when considering that he’s only started four of these games. Camavinga is averaging 2.43 fouls committed per 90 in the Champions League this season which explains why he’s found himself in the referee's notebook on a few occasions already this season. 

Camavinga will line up against Martin Odegaard who is far more influential when he has Bukayo Saka supporting him on the right hand side of the pitch. The pair link up with the fullback to form triangles in the wide areas which allow Arsenal to penetrate and create chances. Odegaard is averaging 0.82 fouls won per 90 across his seven appearances in the Champions League this season but expect this to increase in line with improved performances following the return of Saka.

Arsenal have had 5+ corners in three of their five games at home in the Champions League this season. It’s an important aspect of Arsenal’s game, especially given the lack of a true centre forward to truly rely on for goals. 

Arsenal should be able to capitalise on how poor Madrid have been defensively in recent weeks. Carlo Ancelotti’s side have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five games across all competitions and have conceded 2+ goals in three of these games suggesting that the Gunners will have opportunities to pin back Los Blancos and rack up the corner count.

Real Madrid have conceded 5+ corners in three of their six away games in the Champions League this season. Arsenal should be able to come in around this mark given how much they rely on set pieces and corners for chance creation as well as the pressure they’ll be able to sustain in Madrid’s half seeing as the away side have been very open at the back in recent fixtures.

There is definitely a world in which Real Madrid become really frustrated here. There aren’t many better defensive sides in Europe than Arsenal and this should show here, even with the slight weakening they’ve suffered to their backline as a result of Gabriel’s injury.

Real Madrid are averaging 11.3 fouls per game in the Champions League this season, a record which has produced 30 yellow cards for Los Blancos (2.5 per game) - notably more than any other side in the competition. 

Arsenal’s game plan will be to focus on the midfield battle where they are strong and limit the number of transitions that Madrid are able to put together. This should result in a real scrap between the two boxes, especially for Madrid as they grow in frustration as the game goes on.