Tchouameni is set to come into the Real Madrid starting lineup to replace the suspended Camavinga who was sent off following a second yellow card right at the death of the first leg. 

Tchouameni has committed seven fouls across his 10 appearances in the Champions League this season (0.89 per 90) and is also averaging 0.91 fouls committed per 90 across his 26 LaLiga appearances this campaign. He’ll be up against Martin Odegaard, who has won five fouls across his eight appearances in the Champions League this season (0.85 per 90) and was brought down once in the first leg. 

The nature of the game sets up Tchouameni well to commit a foul here. Arsenal will have to protect their goal in the early stages to ensure that Real Madrid cannot generate any momentum, with Los Blancos famous for comebacks in the Champions League. This will mean that Arsenal are likely to get their opportunities on the break, putting Tchouameni right in the limelight when he has to stop these Arsenal breaks.

Timber was superb in the first leg, Vinicius Jr could not find a way past the fullback who contested 15 duels at the Emirates, winning eight of these - more than any other player on the pitch. This suggests that Timber will be heavily involved here again with Vinicius Jr sniffing around his corner of the pitch. 

Timber has won seven fouls across his 10 appearances in the Champions League this season (1.06 per 90). His ability to win fouls comes down to his excellent ability in tight areas of the pitch and his strength, which makes it very hard to knock him off the ball. These traits are also evident in the Premier League, with Timber winning 29 fouls across his 29 appearances in the English top flight (1.12 per 90). 

Vinicius Jr has committed 16 fouls across his 11 appearances in the Champions League this season (1.42 per 90). He can be quite careless with his challenges, as you’d expect from a winger, and Timber’s strong fouls won record sets him up well to force the referee to reach for his whistle here.

Real Madrid have had at least six shots on target in each of their six games at the Bernabeu in the Champions League this season. They’re averaging 6.5 shots on target per game across the Champions League as a whole, but fell well below this average in the first leg, with only three shots on target.

This should change here. Real Madrid have to be on the front foot from the first whistle if they are to overturn this deficit, and this game state suits this selection quite well. Arsenal will have no issues in sitting in their compact shape, with Mikel Arteta still aware they are missing key players at the back, which could still make this tie problematic. This should invite pressure from Madrid on the Arsenal goal throughout the game, with an attack v defence situation expected at the Bernabeu.

Both teams received a card in the first leg with Thomas Partey and Eduardo Camavinga taken down in the referee’s notebook. Arsenal have collected 19 cards across their 11 games in the Champions League this season (1.72 per game). 

Real Madrid have received 30 yellow cards across their 13 games in the Champions League this campaign (2.30 per game) - notably more than any other side still in the competition, which would suggest that frustration has got the better of Carlo Ancelotti’s side on a few occasions this season. 

The referee for this game is Francois Letexier who is averaging 4.33 cards per game across his six appointments in the Champions League this season. The immediate pressure of knockout football should see a few battles across the pitch resulting in at least one caution for each side, in line with their averages in the Champions League this term.

Rodrygo has made a habit of providing in the most crucial moments for Real Madrid. He’s scored important goals in the knockout stages in recent seasons against Manchester City and Chelsea for Real Madrid and will be looking to add to this positive habit against the Gunners here.

Rodrygo has registered seven goal contributions across his 11 appearances in the Champions League this season (5 goals, 2 assists) and scored Madrid’s opener against Atletico Madrid in the round of 16 at the Bernabeu with an excellent run and finish.

Real Madrid have scored in each of their six games in the Champions League at the Bernabeu this campaign, with Los Blancos scoring 2+ goals in five of these games. Real Madrid are likely to attack from the first whistle here, with three goals needed to find a way back into this tie. This should aid our selection here with Rodrygo joined by a talented trio of Bellingham, Vinicius Jr and Mbappe who can all cause Arsenal plenty of problems here.

Vinicius Jr has a tendency to overstep the mark and this is made obvious by his foul and card record in the Champions League this season. He’s committed 16 fouls across his 11 appearances in the Champions League this term (1.42 per 90) which is a record that has produced four cautions for the Brazilian - the joint most in the Madrid squad alongside Lucas Vazquez.

Vinicius Jr also tops the Madrid rankings for yellow cards in LaLiga this season, racking up eight cautions in the league, which reinforces the argument that he can be a bit careless with his challenges and a little overenthusiastic when challenging the referee on his decisions.

He’ll be up against Jurrien Timber who was excellent in the first leg and is averaging 1.06 fouls won per 90 in the Champions League this season. Timber won more duels than any other player at the Emirates which suggests that he could frustrate Vinicius Jr again here.

Arsenal still represent a significant threat from set-piece situations and corners in particular. The Gunners racked up five corners at the Emirates and have managed 3+ corners in nine of their 11 games in the Champions League this season.

One aspect of Arsenal’s game which has become really noticeable over the last few seasons under Mikel Arteta is time-wasting. Arsenal take their time over throw-ins, corners and goal kicks, which is something that they may look to use here to quell any momentum that Madrid look to build here.