Arsenal have been mightily impressive all season, particularly at home. They have won 12 of their 15 home league games, only losing to Manchester City and dropping points against Newcastle and Brentford. Their last four home league games have been against teams currently 12th or below, and they have scored 11 goals in those games, with this selection landing in three. Across the season, they have beaten seven teams by two or more goals at the Emirates, including the other five teams occupying the bottom six (other than Southampton). In those five games, they have scored 20 goals, conceding just four, whilst winning them all on expected goals by an aggregate score of 10.5 xG to 3.8 xGA. They will be seeking revenge on Southampton, who are one of just eight sides to take points away from them in the league this season.

Southampton look like they have run out of ideas. They have lost their last three and scored just four goals in their last six (three of which were against Tottenham). Excluding that game against Spurs, they have had just three expected goals since beating Leicester on the 4th of March whilst conceding 7.6 expected goals in the same games. They have not kept a clean sheet in their last five, whilst conceding 12 with this selection landing in their last two – both at home.

Martin Odegaard is averaging 2.78 shots per game with 0.84 of those on target in the league so far this season. At home, he has had at least one shot in 14 of his 15 league games, amassing a total of 49 in those games with 12 of those on target. In his last seven Premier League games, the Norwegian has scored three times from 22 shots with eight of those on target. This selection has landed in six of those seven matches. In this exact fixture last year, the Arsenal captain scored with his only shot on target from three shots.

Southampton have been conceding plenty of chances in recent weeks. Excluding Grimsby in the FA Cup, they have conceded at least ten shots in their last 16 matches. From these games, seven have been on the road and they have conceded 94 shots – a rate of almost 13 per match. Five of those seven games have seen their opponents have four or more shots on target.

Thomas Partey (29) has committed the third most fouls of any Arsenal player this season behind Bukayo Saka (35) and Gabriel Martinelli (34), despite missing several matches due to injury. Per 90, he has conceded 1.26 free kicks, including at least one in five of his last six and seven in that time. He has committed two free kicks in both of Arsenal’s last two games, including a booing at West Ham last time out. Earlier in the season at St Mary’s, he committed one foul. His likely opponent here is Saints midfielder Romeo Lavia.

Romeo Lavia has been the most fouled Southampton player in the league this season despite playing just 1631 (of a possible 2760) minutes. He has drawn 39 fouls at a rate of 2.15 fouls per game in the Southampton midfield, including at least once in 13 of his last 14 games for Southampton. In those 14 games, six of them were against current top-half opposition and the Belgian has drawn 15 fouls in that time at a rate of 3.36 fouls per 90, including two against Manchester City, three at Manchester United and three at Newcastle in just 45 minutes of football.

Romain Perraud has committed 29 fouls in just 1710 minutes of football so far this season at a rate of 1.53 per 90 minutes. He should come in to take the place of the unavailable Ainsley Maitland-Niles and has the unenviable task of dealing with Bukayo Saka here. In eight of his 20 matches (where he has played more than 45 minutes) against Premier League opposition this season, this selection has landed.

Here, he is up against Arsenal’s most fouled player – Bukayo Saka – who draws 1.21 fouls per game. Across his last four starts for club and country, he has drawn ten fouls and this selection has landed in three of those games.