Crystal Palace v Aston Villa

The first FA Cup semi-final sees Crystal Palace and Aston Villa battle it out at Wembley with a massive opportunity to progress to the FA Cup final and end their respective long waits for silverware. Crystal Palace would have been hoping to come into this game with more momentum, having failed to win any of their last four games in the Premier League, but showed more life in their 2-2 draw with Arsenal at the Emirates last time out. 

Aston Villa will still be reeling from Man City’s last-minute winner at the Etihad, which has blown the race for a Champions League finish wide open. They could find themselves further behind in this race with both Chelsea and Newcastle playing in the Premier League before they contest this semi-final. Villa are certainly the stronger side here, but will have to be clinical if they are to beat out Oliver Glasner’s organised outfit.

⭐ Crystal Palace v Aston Villa Best Bets

It is rare that at this stage of the FA Cup, we have three sides left in the competition that wouldn’t be considered part of the ‘big six’. Man City are favourites to lift the trophy as the only representative from that group still in the competition, but both of these sides will fancy taking them on in a one-off game at Wembley, especially given their faltering form this season. 

We can expect this tie to be competitive, with neither side gaining anything by holding back at this stage of the competition. Aston Villa have struggled for defensive consistency this season, they’ve only kept one clean sheet across their last five games in all competitions, which came against Southampton.

Villa have only managed to keep six clean sheets in the Premier League all season, a pitiful record for a side that is looking to be in the Champions League next campaign - only the three promoted sides and Fulham have kept fewer clean sheets.

This appears to be more of a problem when Villa play away from Villa Park. They’ve conceded nine more goals on the road this season compared to their performances in front of the home fans. Although Wembley isn’t technically an ‘away’ fixture, it could have a similar effect on a vulnerable Villa backline.

BTTS has landed in both meetings between these sides this season, the game at Villa Park ended in a 2-2 draw, whilst Crystal Palace ran out 4-1 winners in the reverse fixture at Selhurst Park. Palace have seen BTTS in three of their last five games in the Premier League and have conceded 12 goals across their last three away games.

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👕 Crystal Palace v Aston Villa Predicted XI

🔍 Crystal Palace v Aston Villa Players to Watch

🔵 Jean-Philippe Mateta

Mateta has been sensational for Crystal Palace this season, showing his quality in his long-range effort to claim a point against Arsenal last time out. He scored in the most recent head-to-head meeting between the sides in which Palace ran out 4-1 winners, and he also found the target in the 2-2 draw at Villa Park.

Mateta has scored 14 goals across his 33 Premier League appearances this season, whilst averaging 1.07 shots on target per 90. He can take advantage of the occasionally lax nature of the Villa backline to find the target in this massive semi-final clash. 

🟣 Youri Tielemans

Tielemans has arguably been Villa’s best and most reliable player this season. He’s been deployed in a variety of roles in the middle of the park by Unai Emery this season, showing how much he trusts the silky midfielder. Tielemans has won 53 fouls across his 34 Premier League appearances this season (1.63 per 90).

He was brought down once in each of the head-to-head meetings between these sides this season, but the intensity of this fixture should see this total rise slightly. He’ll be up against Will Hughes, who can be particularly combative in the middle of the park. He’s averaging 2.88 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League this season and committed four fouls in the recent head-to-head meeting, also picking up a yellow card. 

📂 Crystal Palace v Aston Villa Cheat Sheet

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💻 Crystal Palace v Aston Villa Form and Tactics

The most recent head-to-head meeting between these sides at Selhurst Park was really intriguing from a tactical point of view. Unai Emery attempted to beat Palace at their own game, matching Oliver Glasner’s 3-4-3 shape, but this ended up being disastrous. Palace found gaps all over the park and exploited them with efficiency, coming away 4-1 winners. It’s unlikely that Emery looks to go with that same system here, seeing how easily it was dismantled in the most recent meeting.

Villa will line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape. It looks like Emery is attempting to split the game into two phases: control and then overload. Villa start very narrow and with players like Ramsey and Rogers in the advanced areas, which help Villa to get a foothold in the game whilst still maintaining a threat. He then looks to up the stakes by introducing some of his January acquisitions into the mix. This is dependent on the game state, but Villa’s recent games have been following this pattern, which is well-suited to knockout football.

Palace’s 3-4-3 shape has become instantly recognisable now, they are incredibly organised off the ball and look to be direct when they win it back with the front three of Eze, Sarr and Mateta combining quality and speed in a way that has been really effective.

The wingbacks are also crucial, especially Daniel Munoz down the right-hand side, who tends to be the wingback tasked with pushing up the pitch and supporting the attack. The worry for Palace will be in the middle of the park, Wharton and Hughes have been solid, but could find themselves outnumbered at times.

🏁 Crystal Palace v Aston Villa Ref Watch

• Referee: Anthony Taylor

  Fouls	Yellow Cards	Red Cards
  22.21	3.21	0.15

• Stats are on a per 90 basis and are taken from Taylor's 2024/25 games in all competitions (39 total). 

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