Villa have averaged 6.14 corners per game this season, while Southampton concede an average of 7.21. This aligns well with a game where Villa are expected to control possession and attack frequently. Given their consistent corner output and Southampton’s defensive vulnerabilities, this selection appears solid.

Despite often being the underdog, Southampton have had an average of 4.86 corners per game. Their tendency to dominate possession phases and Villa’s allowance of 4.07 corners per match makes this a reasonable bet. Even in games where they are outplayed, Southampton’s corner count has been reliable.

This bet has landed in 10 of Villa’s 14 games. With Southampton conceding 2.14 goals per game and both teams’ matches averaging well over 2.5 goals (Villa 3.21, Southampton 2.93), this seems likely. Villa’s potent attack combined with Southampton’s defensive issues adds further weight to this prediction.

Aston Villa to win appears highly likely given their impressive home form. Villa have only lost once at Villa Park this year, showing a strong ability to capitalize on home advantage. In contrast, Southampton have struggled away from home, losing six of their seven road games and only managing a single draw against Brighton. Villa have also shown a knack for beating teams lower in the table, with their defeats primarily coming against top-six sides. This consistency makes them strong favorites here.

Southampton’s defensive frailty has been evident all season; they’ve conceded 2.14 goals per game on average and have kept just one clean sheet. Their defensive issues are unlikely to improve in a tough away fixture against Villa, who have a potent attack. However, Villa themselves aren’t watertight at the back, conceding 1.64 goals per game and also managing only one clean sheet. With both teams regularly finding themselves exposed defensively, goals at both ends seem likely.

Flynn Downes to be shown a card presents good value based on his disciplinary record and the context of the game. Downes has already accumulated five yellow cards this season, averaging 2.0 fouls per game. His aggressive style often leads to mistimed challenges, especially in high-pressure scenarios. Aston Villa’s midfield, featuring John McGinn and Youri Tielemans, is adept at drawing fouls, with both averaging over 2 fouls won per game. Their ball retention and ability to invite challenges could put Downes under significant pressure, increasing the likelihood of him ending up in the referee’s book.