This fixture has the hallmarks of goals at both ends. Atalanta have been potent in attack, scoring in every Serie A game this season and in 12 consecutive league matches overall. Their midweek comeback victory over Club Brugge further showcased their offensive threat, but defensively they remain far from watertight. Across all competitions this season, they have managed just one clean sheet, and that came against a Torino side who have scored only twice in their opening five league fixtures. More tellingly, seven of Atalanta’s last eight Serie A matches have seen both teams score, reflecting a pattern of defensive vulnerability that undermines their attacking edge.

Como provide enough threat to punish such lapses. They’ve failed to score in only one of their last nine away league games and enter with a fearless approach instilled by Fàbregas. Defensively, however, Como are just as fragile, keeping only one clean sheet in seven competitive fixtures. Last season’s H2H encounters add weight to this angle too. Both were won by the away side, both saw over 2.5 goals, and both saw goals from either team. With attacking intent and defensive cracks clear on both sides, BTTS looks well set.

Fàbregas has implemented a high-energy, front-foot style, but with it comes a sharp disciplinary edge. Como sit second in Serie A for fouls per game (16.4), yellow cards (14), and top for red cards (2). Their returns of 4, 3, 3, 3 and 2 cards across their league games comfortably clear this line, and their matches overall average a remarkable 6.4 cards.

Atalanta themselves may not draw extreme numbers, but head-to-head precedent suggests there’s bite in this fixture. Como picked up at least two cards in both clashes last season, including three on this ground. Referee Luca Zufferli adds further weight to the angle, having shown five yellows in his last Serie A outing. With Como’s combative pressing style, frequent transitions, and willingness to break up play, two or more cards look not just likely but routine.

The 19-year-old has become Como’s talisman after joining from Real Madrid’s reserve side, directly contributing to all six of their league goals this season (3G, 3A). His creative and attacking responsibility is reflected in his numbers; Paz averages 3.69 shots per 90 and sits joint-sixth in Serie A for shots on target per 90 at 1.85. He’s registered at least one on target in four of his five league appearances, the only blank coming in the narrow 1-0 defeat at Bologna.

Como’s style under Fàbregas, energetic pressing, quick transitions, and overloads in wide areas, is designed to create space between lines. Paz, drifting centrally, will again be their primary outlet. With Atalanta conceding in all but one match this season and vulnerable to incisive creative talent, it would be surprising if their young playmaker doesn’t at least test the goalkeeper once.

Musah is expected to make his first Serie A start for Atalanta since joining from Milan, and his profile fits this pick well. Even in limited minutes this season he has averaged 1.89 fouls per 90, and last term at Milan he led the squad in fouls (2.06 per 90). His likely assignment only increases the risk.

On Atalanta’s right-hand side, Musah will often be matched against Nico Paz, who draws 2.67 fouls per 90 and has already forced totals of 4, 2, 3, 3 and 1 this season. Supporting him in midfield, Maximo Perrone also wins 1.09 fouls per 90. Facing that duo in a high-intensity contest, Musah’s tendency to step into challenges makes two or more fouls probable. Keen to impress and up against Como’s most influential player, his discipline will be tested throughout.