While Real Madrid may not need to be on the front foot from the outset, they will undoubtedly look to secure an early goal to ease any nerves and further extend their advantage over their city rivals. However, should Atletico find the breakthrough, Madrid will be forced into a more aggressive attacking approach, further increasing the likelihood of hitting this corner mark.

Away from home, Los Blancos average 4.73 corners per game across all competitions this season, but their European average is even stronger at 6.36 per match, having hit at least four corners in eight of their 11 Champions League fixtures.

Atletico Madrid, despite their defensive solidity, tend to concede corners at a higher rate in European. While they allow just 3.32 corners per game at the Metropolitano in domestic play, this figure rises slightly in Europe, where they have conceded four or more corners in six of their last eight fixtures.

Against Real Madrid, the numbers are even more compelling, with Los Blancos winning 5+ corners in eight of their last nine meetings with their city rivals.

Atletico Madrid’s discipline is notably better in Europe than in La Liga, where they average 2.27 cards per game at the Metropolitano in domestic play. However, their fiery encounters with Real Madrid often bring out a more aggressive side, leading to increased bookings. Across their last 16 meetings with Los Blancos, Atletico have picked up at least two yellow cards 13 times.

The nature of this game only adds to the likelihood of a high card count. With needing to chase the tie, frustration could easily creep in should decisions go against them. Alternatively, if they manage to take a 1-0 lead, a more cynical approach could emerge as they look to protect their advantage and force extra time, further increasing the chance of bookings.

Le Normand is likely to endure another difficult night as he faces Madrid’s electric front three. The French centre-back leads Atletí’s defensive metrics in terms of fouls per game, averaging 1.4 fouls, and has committed at least one in 11 of his last 14 appearances (excluding a brief one-minute cameo against Leverkusen).

With Vinicius Jr. (2.19 fouls won per 90) and Kylian Mbappe (1.04 per 90) both likely to target him, it would be no surprise to see Le Normand committing at least one foul. Notably, in the reverse fixture, he managed two fouls in just 19 minutes as a substitute.

Despite averaging 0.94 fouls per 90, Simeone has committed two or more fouls in his last two starts. The Argentine will be tasked with competing against Jude Bellingham, who has been a magnet for fouls all season.

Bellingham is drawing 2.38 fouls per 90 and has been fouled two or more in 18 of his last 22 starts. Given that Bellingham has shifted towards the left-hand side, Simeone may also find himself clashing with Vinicius Jr., who won four fouls in the reverse fixture. Those seeking slightly higher odds, Simeone to commit two or more fouls is priced at 2.1 and also provides an enticing selection for increased value.

Similar to the previous card selection, Atletico Madrid’s encounters with their rivals tend to be far more physical than their usual matches. Having surpassed 12 fouls in just five domestic games and two European matches this season, history suggests this is a mark they will reach against Real Madrid.

Los Blancos draw an average of 13.77 fouls per game when playing away from home, with five of their last six opponents committing at least 12 fouls against them. More significantly, in 12 of the last 14 head-to-head meetings Atletico Madrid have committed 12 or more fouls.

Despite their defensive qualities, both sides possess significant attacking firepower and vulnerabilities at the back, making BTTS a strong selection.

Atletico Madrid have scored in all but one home game at the Metropolitano this season, but their defensive record worsens when playing in Europe, having kept just one clean sheet in nine Champions League games.

Similarly, Real Madrid have found the net in 13 of their last 14 away matches across all competitions. Their defence, while robust, has been far from impenetrable in Europe, keeping just one clean sheet in 11 Champions League fixtures. This bet has also landed in each of their last 10 meetings, reinforcing its potential once again.

Javi Galan is in for a tough outing against Real Madrid’s wingers, particularly Rodrygo, who draws 1.47 fouls per 90. Galan’s disciplinary record further strengthens the case for this selection – he averages 1.77 fouls per 90 and has committed multiple fouls in three of his last six starts.

The Spanish full-back has already amassed 10 yellow cards this season despite missing 14 matches of the season. Additionally, he has already been carded against Madrid this campaign, further solidifying his likelihood of receiving a booking once again.

Vinicius Jr.’s ability to both score and attract disciplinary action makes this an excellent selection. The Brazilian has netted 18 goals this season across all competitions, including seven in the Champions League.

However, his temperament remains an issue – he has received 14 yellow cards, including one red this season. Given the intensity of this rivalry, there is a strong chance he finds himself on the scoresheet or in the referee’s book.