Vinícius Júnior is a key attacking threat for Real Madrid, averaging 3 shots per game with 0.9 hitting the target. While Atlético Madrid’s defence is one of the best in the league, they are not immune to top-tier attacks. Real Madrid averages 6.45 shots on target per game, showing their ability to break down even the most compact defences. Atlético has also shown vulnerability in high-stakes matches against top-tier attacks—conceding an average of 4.5 shots on target per game in the Champions League. Given his role in Madrid’s attack and large shot output, Vinícius is highly likely to test the keeper at least once.

The Madrid Derby has been a high-scoring contest in recent history. The BTTS bet has landed in the last 8 meetings, with 31 goals being scored in total.

There’s an average of 4 goals per game in the head to head stats.

Real Madrid have been in top attacking form, bagging 19 goals in their last 7 league games.

While only 50% of their games have resulted in both teams hitting the back of the bet, against strong opposition this percentage increases.

Atletico have been ruthless in front of goal netting 14 times in their last 5 league games – with BTTS landing in 3 of them.

Both sides need the points, an open match looks to be on the cards.

While Atlético are not necessarily known for their attack this seems a very attainable total even against Real Madrid. For one, they are pretty efficient when they do go forward and average 4.86 shots on target per game. Real Madrid also concedes 2.91 shots on target per game, showing they do allow opponents opportunities, and this average seems likely to go up in this game given the stakes of the match and how important a result for Atletico is. Atlético will likely have spells of attacking play, especially on the counter. With world-class forwards like Griezmann and Alvarez who are more than capable of testing the keeper, Atlético should reach this line.

Brighton average 4.6 shots on target per game, while Chelsea concede 4.75 per match, making this a highly attainable target. Playing at home, Brighton are likely to be more aggressive in attack, especially in a knockout match where they must push forward to avoid potential elimination. With their direct style of play coupled with Chelsea’s defensive vulnerabilities, they should be able to generate enough opportunities to register at least five shots on target.

Real Madrid consistently generate opportunities resulting in them, averaging 5.68 corners per game this season. Given their tendency to dominate possession, especially at home, they should force Atlético into defensive situations that lead to corners. Atlético concedes 3.91 corners per game, and Madrid being one of the league’s best attacks should comfortably surpass this.

Atlético average 4.86 corners per game, suggesting they tend to create enough attacking chances to reach this mark. Even in a more defensive setup, they are efficient in transitions and have world-class attackers with great outputs which often lead to corners. Real Madrid allows 3.91 corners per game, suggesting Atlético as a far stronger-than-average side should reach four, particularly if they find themselves chasing a result at any point.

Despite the intensity of the Madrid derby, the numbers suggest a relatively controlled game in terms of bookings. Real Madrid averages just 1.68 cards per game, while Atlético sees 2.32 cards per match, bringing the combined average to just 4 cards per game—well below this threshold. While these totals could rise in a derby, it seems unlikely to increase by so much making this a smart selection.

Bellingham has drawn on average of 2.22 fouls per game this season, and with Atlético committing 10.55 fouls per match often aiming to disrupt attacks, Bellingham’s driving play style would appear to make him a prime target. To add to this Atlético are likely to spend large spells of the game defending, Bellingham will likely see plenty of possession, increasing the likelihood of him being fouled multiple times as Atlético attempt to disrupt his influence on the game.