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🔴 ⚪️Atletico Madrid v Valencia Bet Builder Tips

🔴 ⚪️Atletico Madrid v Valencia Bet Builder Tips

Saturday 14 September, 20241 min read
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With a passion for data and tactical analysis, leveraging those interests to find value in the markets. Massive Jurgen Klopp fan, and Liverpool supporter.

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Atletico Madrid v Valencia Bet Builder Tips

The action in La Liga returns this weekend with Atletico Madrid v Valencia headlining the Sunday night fixture list.

Make sure to head over to our Atletico Madrid v Valencia Betting Preview for even more insight into the data behind this fixture.

3/1 Atletico Madrid v Valencia Bet Builder Level 1

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Level 1 Bet Builder Tip

🏆 Atletico Madrid to Win

📈 Odds: 1.30

Valencia will be without key players for this clash, with Hugo Duro sidelined due to a foot injury and Rafa Mir suspended. This will be a tough test for them, as Atletico Madrid have started the season strongly with two wins, two draws and three clean sheets. Last season, Atletico secured a 2-0 victory over Valencia at the Metropolitano, concluding the 2023/24 season with an overall home record of 16 wins, one draw, and two losses. Diego Simeone’s team have shown great discipline defensively, conceding only two goals in their first four games. They’ve kept three consecutive clean sheets, including against Girona. Atletico’s summer signings have bolstered their squad, with Le Normand proving solid at the back and contributing to their defensive stability. Alexander Sorloth and Julian Alvarez are also expected to play key roles in this upcoming match. With Atletico’s strong home form and Valencia missing important players, the advantage clearly lies with Simeone’s side.

⚽️ Over 1.5 Goals

📈 Odds: 1.22

So far, Atletico Madrid have scored six goals across their first four games. In their most recent home match against Espanyol, Atletico were extremely unfortunate not to score. They had two goals disallowed and managed to create five big chances, taking a total of 25 shots. Their efforts amounted to an impressive 2.47 xG, yet they were unable to find the back of the net. Prior to that, Atletico enjoyed a more successful outing, securing a comfortable 3-0 victory at home against Girona, thanks to goals from Antoine Griezmann, Marcos Llorente and Koke. Chance creation has not been an issue so far, as Atletico Madrid have created 6.4 xG from four games, ranking fifth in La Liga. Last season, over 1.5 goals landed in 16 out of 19 league games at the Metropolitano, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

🛑 Robin Le Normand to commit 1+ fouls

📈 Odds: 1.53

Summer signing Robin Le Normand has quickly established himself as a highly aggressive centre-back at his new club. He tends to stick close to opposing strikers, which often sees him drawn out of position or left isolated in one-on-one situations. In his first four games for the club, Le Normand has committed six fouls, with two fouls each in matches against Villarreal, Girona, and Athletic Club. While playing for Spain in the Nations League, Le Normand was sent off after duelling with Switzerland's Breel Embolo. Despite being on the pitch for just 25 minutes, he committed three fouls, one of which was a last-man challenge, resulting in a red card. Similarly, in the game prior, he made three fouls against Serbia, and was shown a yellow card. His tenacity in defence can sometimes push him into risky situations. With Valencia expected to sit deep here, he will once again look to be aggressive to try and sustain pressure in the opposing half.

🛑 Hugo Guillamon to commit 2+ fouls

📈 Odds: 1.40

Another extremely aggressive player is Hugo Guillamon on the side of Valencia. The Frenchman has featured sporadically for Los Ches over the last season, but has started the last two consecutive games, with Javi Guerra dropping to the bench. Guillamon made three fouls against Villarreal in the last game, and received a booking. He is a very intense pressing player, and can be guilty of making cynical fouls. Last season, Guillamon had the highest fouls per 90 average in the Valencia squad, with 2.42. Two or more fouls landed in nine of his 15 starts last season, including four fouls the last time he started against Atletico Madrid. Atletico Madrid are likely to dominate the ball here, so Guillamon should have plenty of defensive duels against the likes of Antoine Griezmann and Julian Alvarez.

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Level 2 Bet Builder Tip

⚽️ Antoine Griezmann to Score or Assist

📈 Odds: 1.83

Antoine Griezmann has been one of the best performers for Diego Simeone this season, already chipping in with one goal and two assists in just four games. He also registered an assist last time he faced Valencia, as the hosts cruised to a 2-0 victory. Last season, Griezmann accumulated the most goals and the most assists for Atletico Madrid, with 16 goals and six assists from 31 starts. On average, the Frenchman managed 0.75 GA per game, which was one of the best returns of any La Liga player. He has continued that trend into the new campaign, starting off with an assist against Villarreal, before getting himself a goal, and an assist against Girona at home. With that in mind, this price of 1.83 looks incredibly good value.

🎯 Sergi Canos to have 1+ Shots on Target

📈 Odds: 1.83

Sergi Canos missed the start of the season through injury, but could be in line to start at the Metropolitano, with Hugo Duro and Rafa Mir likely to miss out. He featured for an eight-minute cameo off the bench against Villarreal, in which he managed four shots, with two on target. Last season, Canos was not a consistent starter, but he did accumulate an average of 3.09 shots per 90, which was the highest in the Valencia squad. The former Brentford man started the game against Atletico at the Mestalla Stadium last campaign and registered two shots, with both on target. With Valencia light on attacking players, Canos might be expected to step up into a more attacking role with high expected minutes to fill the void. Atletico Madrid tend to sit back and concede possession when they take the lead. A positive gamestate is likely for Valencia shots here, and Canos has the ability to fashion his own shooting chances, making him a player to target.

🛑 Pepelu to commit 1+ fouls

📈 Odds: 1.29

In the opening four matches of the campaign, Pepelu has already committed five fouls, demonstrating his physical presence and willingness to disrupt the opposition’s play. He has registered at least one foul in every game except the match against Celta Vigo. Pepelu’s importance to Valencia’s midfield is clear, as he has played the full 90 minutes in three of those four games. With key players out for Valencia, the squad is looking a bit thin, so Pepelu might once again be expected to play the entire game. Last season in La Liga, Pepelu averaged 1.3 fouls per game, recording at least one foul in 14 out of Valencia's 19 away matches. Pepelu was particularly physical in both head-to-head encounters against Atletico Madrid last season, committing exactly two fouls in each of those matches. He also made three tackles in respective games, so was heavily involved in duels.

🛑 Koke to commit 1+ fouls

📈 Odds: 1.80

So far this season, Koke has committed at least one foul in all three of his La Liga starts, meaning the Atletico captain has extended his foul streak to the last nine starts at the Metropolitano. Although Koke did not commit a foul in the most recent head-to-head encounter against Valencia, he was heavily engaged in defensive actions, making a notable eight tackles throughout the game. His contribution in that match was more focused on preventing counter-attacks and disrupting Valencia's build-up play, showing that even when he doesn't commit fouls, he's still highly active in defensive duels. Looking ahead to this game, Koke is expected to start in a holding midfield role, which will likely see him tasked with stopping Valencia’s counter-attacks and breaking up play.

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