Barcelona have been in electric form in recent weeks, going 13 undefeated. Should they continue that run, they will progress to meet Atletico Madrid or Borussia Dortmund in the final four. They are 1.36 to win with a +1 handicap, which would guide them through.

Xavi’s side have won all four of their Champions League matches at the Olympic Stadium this season, yet they are not invincible at the venue. They have suffered four defeats in LaLiga at their temporary home.

Are PSG good enough to take advantage? The evidence suggests not. Although undefeated on their travels domestically, they have struggled on the road in Europe. Luis Enrique’s side failed to win away in a testing group stage but did win in Spain six weeks ago when they overcame Real Sociedad.

This Barcelona side is on a different level, though, and odds of 2.2 on the hosts to get another win over 90 minutes appear more than fair.

If the first leg is anything to go by, this should be an encounter littered with goals. Given the balance of the tie, this is a match that should only be more open, while the history of these matches points to plenty of excitement.

Games between these clubs average an incredible 3.6 goals per game, the highest of any opponent that Barcelona have faced 10 times or more in Europe. It’s not a stretch at 2.25 to suggest there will be at least four goals in this game, while three or more at 1.45 reflects the expectation that there will be plenty to fill the highlights reel.

Kylian Mbappe is the shortest odds to hit a shot on target in this game at 1.14, yet he offers little value at this price given a disappointing sequence of performances. Indeed, this is the type of match in which he will either disappear from view or produce a match-winning display. He is 26 to score another hat-trick.

Better value to carry a threat is Ousmane Dembele, who scored and hit the post last week, is priced at 2.1 to have a shot on target. The wingers gets away a high volume of efforts, although his accuracy can be lacking at times.

Similarly, Bradley Barcola is one to watch. His arrival off the bench changed things at Parc des Princes and with 1.47 shots on target per 90 in the Champions League this season, he should be fancied to get something on loan here.

As a team, look for PSG to have at least six shots on target at 2.3. They have managed this figure in six of their last seven Champions League matches.

Barcelona’s main threat in the first half was Raphinha. He had four shots on target and scored twice as he exploited Achraf Hakimi’s absence perfectly. The Morocco right-back returns for his game, so look for the Brazilian’s influence to be diminished. With 2.86 shots on target per 90 in the Champions League, he is still good value at 1.36 to get a shot on target.

Joao Cancelo, meanwhile, is worth some consideration at a price of 3.0. He has 0.62 shots on target per game in this competition, which is a higher figure than Lamine Yamal, Pedri and Ilkay Gundogan He didn’t manage one in the first leg but did have a couple of shots.

PSG had a massively higher foul count than Barcelona in the first leg, conceding 14 free kicks to eight. Nevertheless, they only had two yellow cards in comparison to the four of their opponents.

Kylian Mbappe gave away three free kicks at Parc des Princes while Lucas Beraldo did likewise. Mbappe does however only gives up an average of 1 foul per game. Given his high crime count in the first leg, Mbappe is an attractive price at 1.44 to give up one free kick here.

Vitinha, though, is PSG’s player to watch in this market. The Portuguese gives up 1.81 fouls per 90 and yet is 1.4 to commit just one in this match. A price of 2.88 on him to give away 2 free kicks again looks generous.

Similarly, Warren Zaire-Emery is worth consideration. He stands at 1.64 fouls per 90 and is priced at 1.3 to give up a free kick.

By comparison, Barcelona were clean a week ago. Nevertheless, Joao Cancelo and Raphinha both committed two fouls. At prices of 1.22 and 1.2 to give up a single free kick, neither of these players is especially attractive but with Hakimi to police, they may have more defensive work to do.

Backing Raphinha to be fouled on a couple of occasions looks better value. He is winning 2.62 fouls per 90 in Europe this season – easily the highest of any player likely to start. The former Leeds man is 1.13 to be fouled once and 1.67 to win two free kicks.

More generally, a high yellow card count seems very probable. There were six displayed in the first leg, while the last time Barcelona and PSG met in a second leg there were seven.

Referee Istvan Kovacs is averaging 4.8 cards per game in the Champions League this season. He showed seven yellows as PSG lost 4-1 to Newcastle, booking Lucas Hernandez, Achraf Hakimi, Ousmane Dembele and Warren Zaire-Emery from the Ligue 1 champions.