I considered putting up Othmane Maamma for a shots angle, and I wouldn't put people off him, he is one to watch from a shots perspective, but Imran Louza has much more form and evidence behind him as a solid shout at similar odds.

Louza is a really important player for Watford and though he plays deeper than the forward ranks, he is quite ubiquitous in Watford's attacking play. He is on all set pieces, he shoots from outside the box, he is getting into goalscoring positions inside the box, and he is playing all the minutes available.

Louza took six shots in Watford's last match at home to Preston, and he has averaged 2.65 shots per 90 this season so far. More impressively, and most importantly for this bet, he has hit this line or better in 10 of his last 12 matches.

There are a few clubs every season who seem to struggle between their home and away form and getting the balance between them. Birmingham are one of the sides who seem to be flying at home, but are unable to replicate that away. Until last weekend, Watford were winless away from home, but superb at home, so I like the chances of Birmingham to, perhaps not replicate their home scorelines of late, but to assert their dominance at St Andrews.

The best way for me to illustrate the difference for Birmingham is to use home vs away statistics. The Blues are just about edging the expected goals averages away from home in the league this season, 1.13 vs 1.02, but at home they are super-dominant, 2.12 xG vs 0.91 xG averages, which means that they are over 1 xG worth of chances at home better than a) their visitors, but also b) their own away form.

Watford, by contrast, have a negative xG ratio when on the road in the league. They are averaging 1.12 xG for per game but allowing 1.38 xG against.

I am expecting Birmingham to produce a display that is congruent and consistent with what they have produced so far. They seem to have hit upon a formula that is working really well at the moment, and I am not sure that Watford have the answers to deal with it, especially not away from home.

This is a low line to get over, and although I am expecting Birmingham to dominate, their opponents have been winning corners with regularity.

Watford themselves are decent corner winners in the division as a whole. Overall, they are winning 4.18 corners per match, this drops to 3.5 when travelling away, but they are more often than not clearing this chosen line. Indeed, they have beaten this corner line in all bar their opening two away matches of the season, which indicates the improvement that they have made through the season.

Birmingham are conceding over four corners per match at home. Indeed, they conceded eight to Norwich last time out despite thrashing them 4-1, they also conceded three to Millwall and five to Portsmouth in their 4-0 triumphs. The last time they conceded fewer than three corners was back in September to Swansea.

The Watford right back has established himself as first choice this season, and I am confident that he will be in line to start here as well.

He will be up against Demarai Gray, most likely, and also Alex Cochrane on that side. Gray is averaging a massive 2.36 fouls drawn per 90 at home, and Cochrane adds to that with 1.32 fouls drawn per 90 at home, Ngakia has a recent record of consistently committing at least one foul per match, making this price look good value.

Ngakia is averaging 1.12 fouls per 90 this season in the league, a figure that jumps to 1.42 per 90 when only considering Watford's away matches. He has committed at least one foul in all away games bar Watford's opening away game, and he has committed two fouls in his last two away starts. This extends to at least one foul in eight of his last nine matches in total.