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Liverpool v Bournemouth 2/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Liverpool v Bournemouth 2/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Thursday 14 August, 20255 min read
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Ramis Ibrahim

Avid football writer and Premier League specialist. Meticulous eye for player prop bets across English, European and International football honed over four years in football analysis.

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Liverpool welcome Bournemouth to Anfield in the curtain raiser for the 2025/26 Premier League season, and I've put together a bet builder and a longshot.

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Mohamed Salah 1+ Shot on Target

  • Liverpool vs AFC Bournemouth
  • 15.08
  • 20:00

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  • Liverpool v Bournemouth
  • Premier League
  • 20:00
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Hugo Ekitike to have 1+ Shots on Target

Ekitike’s shot volume could hit new heights this season seeing as he averaged 4.08 shots per 90 in the Bundesliga last season and is now spearheading a side that averaged 17.05 shots per game in the Premier League last season. 

Ekitike had three shots with one of these attempts ending up in the back of the net against Crystal Palace as Liverpool drew 2-2 with the Eagles, losing out on the trophy on penalties. Of Ekitike’s 117 shots in the Bundesliga last season, 48 found the target (1.68 per 90 - 41%) which is a strong record for a player with the sample size of Ekitike. 

This record returned 15 league goals for Ekitike which is another metric we can expect to improve should Ekitike lead the line for Liverpool throughout the season. Liverpool averaged 6.10 shots on target per game in the Premier League last season - more than any other side. Liverpool had 13 shots on target in the meeting at Anfield between these sides last season as they ran out 3-0 winners, though both scorers from that game in Nunez and Diaz have left the club. 

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Tyler Adams to Commit 2+ Fouls

Bournemouth are an incredibly aggressive side and this isn’t something that should change for the Cherries this season. Andoni Iraola’s side committed 13.8 fouls per game in the Premier League last season - more than any other side in the division. This metric is a result of Bournemouth’s overall philosophy which is to win the ball back as high up the pitch as possible, a strategy confirmed by their PPDA last season (9.9 - 1st in PL).

Adams is tasked with ensuring that the opposition don’t have a direct path through to the backline if they manage to break through Bournemouth’s initial press. No side was better at this than Liverpool last season and the underlying metrics from their 3-0 win at Anfield over the Cherries further confirm this with Liverpool having 13 shots on target in the game. 

Adams committed 45 fouls across his 21 starts for Bournemouth in the Premier League last season (2.06 per 90) and he’ll be faced up by Florian Wirtz here who averaged 3.13 fouls won per 90 in the Bundesliga last season and ranked 1st in the German top flight for successful dribbles which means we can anticipate a busy evening for Adams in the middle of the park. 

Adams didn’t play in the meeting between these sides at Anfield last season but all three midfielders for Bournemouth were shown a yellow card with Kluivert and Christie committing at least two fouls. Adams did feature in the reverse fixture and committed two fouls as Bournemouth fell to a 2-0 defeat to Arne Slot’s eventual champions.

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Over 2.5 Goals

The meeting between the sides last season saw exactly three goals as Liverpool came away 3-0 winners. We can expect goals at Anfield this year seeing as Liverpool saw 58 goals across their 19 games at home last season (3.05 per game). They scored 42 of these goals which was a record only bettered by Manchester City last season (43) and is one that they could eclipse this campaign with the attacking reinforcements they have brought in. 

Bournemouth’s away games were also pretty entertaining last season with the Cherries seeing 65 goals across their 19 trips away from the south coast (3.42 per game). These metrics would suggest that we should get an exciting opening game of the season at Anfield as Liverpool look to defend their title in what is set to be one of the most competitive Premier League seasons in recent memory. 

I also don’t think this will be as straightforward as the odds suggest for Liverpool here. There were gaps at the back in Liverpool’s Community Shield defeat to Crystal Palace which Bournemouth can look to exploit. The absence of Ryan Gravenberch for the opening game is really significant, for all the flash and attacking reinforcements - Gravenberch keeps everything ticking in the middle of the park and Liverpool could find their backline more exposed in his absence.

Bournemouth to Commit 12+ Fouls

Bournemouth committed 510 fouls in the Premier League last season (13.8 per game) - at least 45 more than the next closest side in Wolves (12.6 per game). This is no accident, Bournemouth play with a very aggressive press which sees the majority of their fouls committed high up the pitch, either in an attempt to win the ball back, or to stop sides breaking on them quickly if they bypass the press.

Bournemouth committed 12+ fouls in both head to head meetings between the sides last season. The Cherries committed 15 fouls in the matchup between the sides at the Vitality Stadium but really struggled at Anfield - Liverpool were the best side I saw last season at deconstructing the Bournemouth press but this may be more difficult this time around without Gravenberch who was central to Slot’s approach in that game.

Evanilson to have 2+ Shots

I think Evanilson could develop into a top Premier League striker with the 10 goals he scored in his debut season a solid start to life in the English top flight, especially as none of these goals were from the penalty spot.

Evanilson will harass Van Dijk and Konate in the same way that Mateta did in the Community Shield. The former Porto striker will have noted the issues that the Liverpool centre backs had in dealing with Mateta and look to replicate his busyness to unsettle Konate and particularly Van Dijk who looked pretty off it for Palace’s second goal.

Evanilson had two shots in this fixture last season and averaged 2.81 shots per 90 in his debut season. Bournemouth are always a side worth backing for shots, they averaged 15.29 shots per game in the Premier League last season which is a record that was only bettered by Liverpool, Chelsea and City last season. Bournemouth look to get shots off as quickly as possible when they win the ball back as illustrated by the fact that they had the highest number of shot ending turnovers last season (68).

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Liverpool v Bournemouth Best Longshot Bets
  • Liverpool v Bournemouth
  • Premier League
  • 20:00
5 Selections @ 45.56

Mohamed Salah to have 2+ Shots on Target

Mohamed Salah is the most reliable player in Premier League history on the opening weekend, no player has scored more goals than Salah on the opening day (9). 

Salah enjoyed one of his best ever seasons last year, registering a remarkable 57 goal contributions across his 52 appearances, with 47 of these coming in the Premier League. The 29 goals that Salah scored last season is his second highest tally in the Premier League era, only eclipsed by his first ever season in English football where he scored 32 goals in 36 games. 

Salah averaged over 2.0 shots on target per 90 for a large chunk of last season, but these numbers dipped a little towards the end of the campaign which is to be expected seeing as Liverpool had already wrapped up the title and there wasn’t much for the Reds to play for. 

Salah ended the campaign with 130 shots (3.46 per 90) with 61 of these attempts finding the target (1.63 per 90). Liverpool had 13 shots on target against Bournemouth in this fixture last season with Salah managing 2+ shots on target in both head to head meetings against the Cherries last season, including notching a brace at the Vitality Stadium. 

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Cody Gakpo to Score or Assist

I feel like Cody Gakpo is often forgotten when people are discussing the attacking threat Liverpool will pose this season, but a deep dive into his numbers from last season suggest that Gakpo could be primed for an excellent personal campaign as part of a dangerous attacking setup for Liverpool.

Slot really improved two players last season in my view - Gravenberch and Gakpo. It is no surprise that these players are Slot’s national compatriots which would have had an effect in getting his ideas across to his players. Gakpo is mainly deployed from the left hand side where Liverpool are a little light now that Diaz has moved on to Bayern Munich.

Gakpo registered 24 goal contributions across his 49 appearances in all competitions for Liverpool last season. These numbers are admittedly not as eye catching as some of Liverpool’s other attacking players, but seeing as those players are really shortly priced to register a goal contribution here, turning to Gakpo could be a value choice throughout the season. 

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Tyler Adams to be Shown a Card

When you watch Bournemouth sometimes it’s easy to think you’ve accidentally switched on the rugby. They are an incredibly aggressive side, especially in the final third as Iraola looks to revitalise his immense pressing approach for another season. 

Bournemouth had the lowest PPDA of any side in the Premier League last season (9.9) and also committed considerably more fouls than any other side (13.8 per game) which are metrics which indicate that we can expect Bournemouth to continue to be high up in the foul and card rankings this season. 

Adams has a crucial role in this Bournemouth side to ensure that opposition sides don’t have a free pass to Bournemouth’s backline, which has been considerably weakened this window, which regularly sees Adams in the crosshair of the referee.

Adams collected seven yellow cards across his 21 Premier League starts last season and should be regularly tested by Liverpool’s latest edition, Florian Wirtz. Wirtz is set to offer Liverpool a more direct path through opposition sides, he averaged 3.13 successful dribbles per 90 in the Bundesliga last season (1st) compared to the 0.76 successful dribbles per 90 that Szoboszlai averaged in the Premier League last season. 

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Virgil van Dijk to be Fouled 1+ Times

With Bournemouth’s aggressive pressing approach in mind, backing Virgil Van Dijk to win a foul here seems a smart angle. Bournemouth’s PPDA of 9.9 means we can expect the Cherries to be brave when without the ball at Anfield, Liverpool were probably the only side that managed to fully figure out the Bournemouth press last season so there may be slight alterations from Iraola, but the overall structure shouldn't change too much. 

Van Dijk won just 13 fouls in the Premier League last season (0.35 per 90) but the context surrounding this game suggests that there is a decent chance that we see a rise in this metric here. Van Dijk will be up against Evanilson who will have watched his performance in the Community Shield and been encouraged by what he saw, urging the Brazilian striker on to be aggressive with Van Dijk. Evanilson averaged 1.43 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League last season and committed a foul in this fixture last term.

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Marco Senesi to Commit 2+ Fouls

The departure of Huijsen and Zabaryni means that we should see Marcos Senesi step back into the centre back role for Bournemouth. Senesi is more than capable of playing at the Premier League level, but he is a slight downgrade on the two centre backs that Bournemouth had last season who have moved on to European giants.

One plus of Senesi is that he fits in with Bournemouth’s overall aggressive structure. He picked up five yellow cards across his 13 Premier League starts last season and picked up 13 yellow cards the season prior across 26 starts - the most of any Bournemouth player that season. 

Senesi is also a real shot threat, he registered nine goal contributions across his 26 starts in the 23/24 season. He averaged 1.64 fouls committed per 90 during that campaign which would indicate that he will continue to be rash this season, starting with a clash against Hugo Ekitike.

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📂 Liverpool v Bournemouth Cheat Sheet

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📈 Liverpool v Bournemouth Form & Tactics

Liverpool lost out on the Community Shield to Crystal Palace just under a week ago, but that defeat on penalties isn’t one we should overexamine, seeing as just three of the last 10 reigning champions have actually managed to win the Community Shield after just winning the title.

Liverpool’s main talking point this summer is the volume and quality of signings, a rare flurry for a side that has just won the league. Slot clearly felt as though he needed to refigure his attack with the outgoings of Diaz and Nunez being replaced by Ekitike and Wirtz, with a move for Alexander Isak still not completely off the table. 

Liverpool have also restructured their fullbacks with Kerkez and Frimpong being drafted in for Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold. There are also links to Marc Guehi, which refuse to go away. Liverpool could end the window with one of the strongest squads of the modern Premier League era.

Liverpool won both head-to-head meetings against Bournemouth last season without even conceding a goal. They were one of the few sides in the top flight that managed to figure out Bournemouth’s aggressive press last season and put together direct attacks which dismantled the Cherries both home and away.

Bournemouth have had a rough some on paper with Dean Huijsen, Ilia Zabaryni and Milos Kerkez all departing for top European clubs. This does show the talent that Bournemouth had within their ranks, but there is still room for the Cherries to have a solid season, seeing as they’ve kept the core of their attacking talent and have begun to rebuild the backline with the signings of Djorde Petrovic and Adrien Truffert. 

Andoni Iraola should not be underestimated, he is a fantastic coach who can continue to build on leading the club to their highest ever points total in the Premier League last season. Bournemouth’s main strength is their pressing power. Bournemouth had the lowest PPDA (passes per defensive action) in the Premier League last season (9.9), which meant that no one was quicker to the ball than Iraola’s side last season. They also ended the campaign with the highest number of shot ending high turnovers (68), which further demonstrates that pressing high up the pitch is central to Iraola’s philosophy.


🏁 Ref Watch

Anthony Taylor

  • Taylor officiated six Liverpool matches last season, awarding the Reds seven yellow cards across these games. 

  • This should be quite an aggressive game when considering the pressing approach of both sides - both head-to-head meetings last season produced exactly five yellow cards.


📊 Liverpool v Bournemouth Key Stats

  • Liverpool boasted the best home record in the Premier League last season, winning 14 of their 19 games and scoring 42 goals - only Manchester City scored more goals at home (43).

  • Liverpool ran out 3-0 winners in this fixture last season, with both sides having 19 shots in the game. Both scorers from that game, Nunez and Diaz, are no longer at the club.

  • Liverpool have made six summer signings, and we can expect Frimpong, Kerkez, Wirtz and Ekitike to make Premier League debuts for Liverpool here.

  • Andoni Iraola led Bournemouth to their highest-ever Premier League finish and points total last season (9th - 56).

  • Bournemouth topped the Premier League ranks for fouls last season, averaging over 13.0 committed per game, with the majority of these coming in the opposition's half in line with their aggressive approach in the final third. 

  • 20% of Bournemouth’s high turnovers ended in shots last season - the highest percentage of any Premier League side last term.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Andy's Bet Club is packed full of Expert Football Tips. We also have an easy-to-use Bet Builder Stats tool to help you conduct your own research. Look out for our Premier League Predictions this season.

This week's coverage on ABC includes Premier League Acca Tips, Early Kick-Off Acca Tips and our BTTS predictions. Those looking outside the Premier League see our EFL Acca and SPFL Acca.

These Liverpool v Bournemouth Betting Stats provide further insight. Saturday’s packed - Villa v Newcastle bet builder tips, and Wolves v Man City bet builder tips are ready. We’ve also got quick takes on Sunderland v West Ham betting tips, Spurs v Burnley betting tips, and Brighton v Fulham betting tips. Sunday’s main event? Man United v Arsenal betting tips & bet builder tips.

When backing our tips, you'll want to be doing so on the Top Bet Builder Sites and Best UK Sports Betting Sites. We also track the best offers, such as the Paddy Power Sign Up Offer and bet365 Sign Up Offer. There's a list of the latest New Bookmaker Offers here.

For additional value, check out our bet365 6 Scores Challenge Tips and our Paddy Power Beat The Drop Predictions.


* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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