Gem Bet: Bournemouth v Man City

Gem Bet: Bournemouth v Man City

Saturday 29 March, 20251 min read
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💎 Omar Marmoush 1+ Foul Committed @ 1.91 on Paddy Power 🔄

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💎 Gem Bet: Omar Marmoush 1+ Foul Committed 🔄 (v Bournemouth)

Omar Marmoush to commit at least one foul in the final FA Cup quarter-final of the weekend is best priced at 1.91 with Paddy Power and Betfair, significantly overpriced when compared to odds as low as 1.29 elsewhere. This staggering disparity in implied probability (52.4% vs. 77.5%) alongside Marmoush’s season trends underscores the value of this bet. Marmoush averages 1.08 fouls per 90 minutes and has committed at least one foul in each of his last seven appearances, which excludes a brief six-minute cameo against Real Madrid. He will face a tricky Bournemouth midfield that has drawn 34 fouls across their last six games and is likely to come into contact with several Bournemouth players, all of whom have a tendency to win fouls:
  • Ryan Christie: 1.36 fouls drawn per 90
  • Antoine Semenyo: 1.12 per 90
  • Marcus Tavernier: 1.12 per 90
  • Justin Kluivert: 1.10 per 90
  • Tyler Adams: 0.82 per 90
With multiple foul-drawing threats in the opposition, Marmoush staying disciplined seems unlikely. At 1.91 odds, this bet offers significant value compared to other bookmakers’ much lower prices.
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