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Newcastle v Bournemouth 2/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Newcastle v Bournemouth 2/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Friday 19 September, 20253 min read
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Ramis Ibrahim

Avid football writer and Premier League specialist. Meticulous eye for player prop bets across English, European and International football honed over four years in football analysis.

In this article...

Bournemouth welcome Newcastle with the Cherries having won three of their four Premier League matches this season. 

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Bournemouth v Newcastle Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Bournemouth v Newcastle
  • Premier League
  • 14:00
4 Selections @ 3.35

Bournemouth to Commit 13+ Fouls

Fouls are embedded in the DNA of Bournemouth and they’ve started this season with similar foul numbers to last campaign. 

Bournemouth averaged 13.8 fouls committed per game in the Premier League last season and committed 20 fouls against Newcastle in this fixture last season.

Only Aston Villa and Tottenham won more fouls in the Premier League than Newcastle last season, so this a good matchup in terms of two sides that have complementary fouls won and fouls committed records.

Bournemouth have committed 13+ fouls in three of their four Premier League matches so far, with the exception coming on the opening day of the season against Liverpool. They committed 16 fouls against Brighton last time out.

Bournemouth Double Chance

It’s hard to see how Newcastle get a result here. The Magpies have only won one of their five games across all competitions this season which was a home win against Wolves, a side that have lost all four of their Premier League games this season.

Newcastle look a little blunt in the final third which is to be expected as they adapt to the loss of Alexander Isak. Bournemouth will also have a real advantage when it comes to fitness here, Andoni Iraola’s side are always full of energy, and they’ll be facing a Newcastle side that had to do a lot of running in their 2-1 defeat to Barcelona during the week.

Bournemouth avoided defeat against Newcastle in both league meetings between the sides last season and ran out 4-1 winners when the teams clashed at St James’ Park.

Sandro Tonali to have 1+ Shots

Tonali has had five shots across his four Premier League appearances this season (1.34 per 90) and can act as an extra shot threat for Newcastle from midfield in the absence of Alexander Isak.

Newcastle are looking for solutions to plug the goals they’re missing now that Isak has left the club. Tonali is a player who can reach double digits for goals across the course of a season and is a real shot threat for Newcastle. He showcased this in the2-1 defeat to Barcelona during the week, which was a game in which he had two shots, both were from outside the box.

Tonali averaged 1.20 shots per 90 across his 36 Premier League appearances last season and had two shots against Bournemouth in Newcastle’s 4-1 defeat against the Cherries at St James’ Park last season.

Antoine Semenyo to have 1+ Shots on Target

Semenyo has been in excellent form in the early stages of the season with the 25-year-old registering five goal contributions across the opening four games of the season (three goals, two assists).

Semenyo is a real handful and reflects the intense approach of the Cherries under Andoni Iraola. 

He’s had 12 shots across his four Premier League games this season (3.00 per 90) with five of those efforts finding the target (1.25 per 90). 

Semenyo had seven shots in this fixture last season; his high shot volume is a direct result of Bournemouth being quick to get shots away when they win the ball back high up the pitch - no side had more high turnovers leading to shots in the Premier League than Bournemouth last season.

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Bournemouth v Newcastle Best Longshot Bets
  • Bournemouth v Newcastle
  • Premier League
  • 14:00
3 Selections @ 18.79

Bournemouth to have 6+ Shots on Target

Bournemouth’s underlying shot numbers are really impressive. They’re averaging 4.50 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season but this average doesn’t quite tell the full story.

Only Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea had more shots in the Premier League last season than Bournemouth with the Cherries averaging around 16 shots across their 19 home games last season. 

It’s a similar story when looking at their shot on target numbers. Only the three aforementioned sides averaged more shots on target per game than Bournemouth last season (5.30 per game) with this average creeping up towards 6.0 per game when looking at their home games.

Nick Woltemade to Score or Assist

Woltemade made a dream start to life at Newcastle with a brilliant header to secure all three points against Wolves last time out. This was a win that Newcastle desperately needed, it’s their only victory of the season so far.

Woltemade also showed some bright touches from the bench in Newcastle’s 2-1 defeat to Barcelona in the Champions League during the week. I thought he should have started the game having already got off the mark for his club and was impactful when he did come on, dropping deep to leave space for Gordon in the box to score.

Woltemade registered 20 goal contributions across his 33 appearances for Stuttgart last season (17 goals, three assists).

Adrien Truffert to be Shown a Card

Truffert has slotted in seamlessly to the Bournemouth backline since joining from Rennes over the summer. Many were concerned about Bournemouth replacing the three players from their back four who left the club in the transfer window, but Truffert has been a solid replacement for Milos Kerkez up until this point.

He’s committed seven fouls across his four Premier League appearances (1.75 per 90) but has avoided a card. This could change here with Truffert being up against Anthony Elanga, who is a player that should be able to win a few fouls from the left back with his speed and willingness to run in behind the Bournemouth backline.

Truffert should also be tested by Tino Livramento, who also pushes up quite high down that side of the pitch. Bournemouth are quite an aggressive side overall and have committed 13 or more fouls in three of their Premier League matches so far.

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📂 Bournemouth v Newcastle Cheat Sheet

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📈 Bournemouth v Newcastle Form & Tactics

Bournemouth have picked up from where they left off under Andoni Iraola last season. Their style is pretty similar to last campaign in that they look to press high and play with constant intensity, but what has been most impressive to me is how Bournemouth have restructured their backline.

The departures of Dean Huijsen, Illia Zabarnyi, Milos Kerkez and Kepa Arrizabalaga were always going to be felt, but that blow has been minimised with the smooth integration of Djordje Petrovic, Truffert, Bafode Diakite and Veljko Milosavljevic. Iraola has crafted a system which doesn’t revolve around specific personnel, which is the sign of a top manager.

The worry for Bournemouth will be losing Iraola to a bigger side. The situation at some clubs, like Manchester United, is already pretty turbulent, and you wouldn’t be surprised to see a change in manager soon. That being said, Iraola is on a really good path with this project and may need some convincing to leave it behind.

Newcastle fell to a 2-1 defeat against Barcelona during the week, courtesy of a Marcus Rashford brace. Newcastle set up to be solid and intense at points in the game, but were ultimately undone by two moments of quality from one of the best attacking sides in the world.

Newcastle’s only win so far has come at home against Wolves. I really like Eddie Howe and think this Newcastle team can pick up, but they need to do so with urgency, as a continuation of this vein of form will inevitably lead to complications over the busy winter period.


🏁 Ref Watch

Robert Jones

Fouls pg

Yellows pg

Reds pg

Pens pg

22.89

3.81

0.12

0.35

Per game stats from Jones' 94 career Premier League games.


📊 Bournemouth v Newcastle Stats

  • Bournemouth have won three of their four Premier League matches this season.

  • Bournemouth committed more fouls than any other Premier League side last season (13.8 per game).

  • Bournemouth avoided defeat in both league meetings with Newcastle last season.

  • Newcastle have won just one of their five matches so far this season (v Wolves).

  • Newcastle have failed to score in two of their Premier League matches this term.

  • Anthony Gordon scored and created the most chances of any player in this fixture last season.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, Accumulator Tips, and Gem Bets, as well as Premier League Predictions and Bournemouth v Newcastle Betting Stats for this weekend, on Andy's Bet Club.

We've also got plenty of other content for Sunday's fixtures, including Quick Previews for Bristol City v Oxford, Partick Thistle v Celtic, and Mallorca v Atletico Madrid, as well as Bet Builders for Sunderland v Aston Villa and Arsenal v Man City

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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