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Bournemouth v Southampton
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Kick Off: Monday 30th September at 20:00
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Competition: Premier League
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event
Monday night takes us to the south coast where Bournemouth take on a Southampton side looking for their first win of the Premier League season. Andoni Iraola’s side’s progress came a bit unstuck at Anfield last weekend, the Cherries conceded 3 goals without reply, a scoreline that could have been much more damaging had Liverpool made more of their 13 shots on target.
A point against Ipswich last time out doesn’t do much to ease the Saints’ early season concerns, a 95th minute equaliser denied Russell Martin’s side their first 3 points of the season leaving them with Wolves and Everton on just the 1 point after 5 games.
Bournemouth v Southampton Best Bets
Aaron Ramsdale has been forced into making 16 saves across his 3 Southampton appearances so far against Brentford, Manchester United and Ipswich (5.33 per 90). He’s a great option at 2.1 to come in under his average in this game.
The former Arsenal keeper put in a man of the match performance last time out against Ipswich making 5 saves in total, he’s made 4+ saves in all 3 of his appearances this season. Southampton are struggling as a side to limit shots on their goal, despite dominating possession. Southampton have conceded 15.8 shots per game and 6.40 shots on target per game across their 5 Premier League matches so far.
Andoni Iraola will surely demand a reaction from his side’s slightly sluggish performance at Anfield last week, the Cherries have been quite positive in the early parts of the season managing 16.6 shots per game and 5.40 shots on target per game across their opening fixtures, that said, taking the Southampton goalkeeper to make 4+ saves at 2.10 looks strong value.
The numbers read for quite an open encounter between these teams, Bournemouth are a side that will have no issue surrendering the ball to get their success in a very effective high press which is detailed further below. Bournemouth have a variety of attacking threats that can test Ramsdale, most notably in Antonie Semenyo who has already found the target 6 times this season, you can back Semenyo at 1.40 to have a shot on target here.
Antonie Semenyo has been Bournemouth’s standout player in the early parts of the 24/25 Premier League season. The Ghanaian has provided 3 goal contributions (2 goals, 1 assist) and his shot numbers really stand out. He’s had 24 shots (5.02 per 90) with 6 of these attempts hitting the target (1.26 per 90). This shot volume is amongst the top 5 players in the Premier League, for comparison Erling Haaland is averaging 5.2 shots per 90.
Semenyo had 4 shots with 2 of these hitting the target in Bournemouth’s 3-0 loss to Liverpool, he’s clearly not afraid of pulling the trigger even from range – 10 if his efforts have come from outside the box. Expect Semenyo’s strong start to the season to continue, his physical presence makes him a great outball for Bournemouth with his pace and power allowing him shooting opportunities.
Tyler Dibling scored his first ever Premier League goal in Southampton’s 1-1 draw v Ipswich last weekend. The winger really stood out when Rusell Martin unexpectedly threw him into the side for the game against Manchester United, winning a penalty after being hauled down by Diogo Dalot. Dibling’s playing style draws a lot of comparisons to Jack Grealish, he likes to travel with the ball and isolate his man 1v1. He’s won 12 fouls in just 205 minutes of Premier League football this season (5.27 per 90) as well as completing 9 dribbles (3.95 per 90).
He’ll line up against Milos Kerkez who has committed 6 fouls across his 5 Premier League appearances this season (1.27 per 90). Expect the left back to struggle against Dibling who has already shown he will be a handful for his opposite fullback, he was hauled down 4 times against Ipswich last time out. Dibling to be fouled 2+ times is currently priced at 1.91.
📂 Bournemouth v Southampton Cheat Sheet
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📊 Bournemouth Form and Stats
Bournemouth’s approach is centred around the work they do off the ball. Andoni Iraola has successfully created a stubborn side that line up in a 4-2-3-1 but transition to a 4-4-2 midblock when they are without the ball. This has played a part in Bournemouth having one of the most effective pressing lines in the Premier League evidenced by their PPDA of 9.71.
The recent home game against Chelsea was further evidence of how Iraola has evolved this side, their press was ruthless and effective causing Enzo Maresca’s side to lose the ball 39 times in dangerous areas leading to 19 shots for Iraola’s men. They should get similar success against a Southampton side that will also look to build up from the back, Liverpool were very smart in the way they went about dismantling the Bournemouth press last week with the centre backs baiting the attacking line and Arne Slot’s side slicing through them with ease.
Few sides in the Premier League will be able to dismantle the press as easily as Liverpool did, especially Southampton who have already shown they can be prone to mistakes when put under pressure.
📊 Southampton Form and Stats
There is a big contrast of styles here which will make for an intriguing watch. Russell Martin’s side will persist with keeping the ball and attempting to break through the Bournemouth lines with their short passing patterns whilst the Cherries will squeeze the pitch through Andoni Iraola’s very intelligent pressing setup and look to pounce on any Saints mistakes.
Southampton’s style under Russell Martin was a key talking point coming into the 24/25 Premier League season, like many younger managers he’s decided to stick with his key principles but there are worrying signs it won’t be sustainable at the top level. Southampton have conceded 9 goals across their 5 games, 4 of these were the result of player errors leading to goals.
They’re yet to win a game in the league despite having the 4th highest percentage of possession (60.7%). Southampton play with a lot of short passes and rehearsed combinations but it is very cautious which is perhaps why they’ve only found the back of the net twice this season, despite creating an xG of 7.1. A lack of a clinical goalscorer is a bit of a concern – Southampton have missed 11 big chances in the Premier League so far this season.
Expect Southampton to continue to dominate the ball but this should work out in Bournemouth’s favour, Russell Martin will have to take some inspiration from Liverpool’s approach last week but the intensity of the Bournemouth press is something his side will struggle to deal with.
⚔️ Bournemouth v Southampton Head-to-Head
The two south-coast outfits last met in the 2022/2023 Premier League season in competitive play, with both of those two meetings resulting in 1-0 away victories. The two sides have met 34 times across their history with Southampton having the edge in the head to head record, winning 16 of those meetings.
Goals have not flown in their last few Premier League meetings, with the over 2.5 goals mark not having been reached in any of their last three Premier League clashes.
Bournemouth have a very worrying home record against Southampton in recent times, with the last time they managed to get the better of Southampton at the Vitality Stadium dating back to March 2016, some seven home meetings ago.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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