Crystal Palace saw their woes compounded at the weekend, as they wasted a prime opportunity to bring an end to their winless run. Nottingham Forest were reduced to 10 men just before half-time, with Neco Williams penalised for handball, allowing Ismaila Sarr to convert from the spot and level the scores. From that point on, it was largely one-way traffic, but Palace were unable to find a decisive breakthrough.

Despite Forest being forced to hand a debut to third-choice goalkeeper Angus Gunn following Matz Sels’ injury, the Eagles lacked conviction in the final third. They finished the match with 1.9xG and 67% possession, yet managed just three shots on target in total, one of which came from the penalty itself.

That result extended Oliver Glasner’s run to 12 games without a win across all competitions, losing seven in that run. Confidence looks fragile, and Brighton will aim to capitalise.

It might not look like a standard rivalry on the surface, but there is clearly some bad blood between these two sides. The M23 Derby has consistently produced plenty of flashpoints, with the last seven head-to-head meetings producing 36 yellow cards and three red cards in total. That averages out at 5.5 cards per game, underlining how these encounters can become quite heated.

Thomas Bramall’s average of 3.7 cards per game in the Premier League this season isn’t particularly appealing, but this matchup may test his tolerance. With both sides likely to be strong and aggressive in their challenges, he could struggle to keep a lid on proceedings and may be forced to resort to his notebook more often than usual.

When these teams last met at the Amex, five cards were shown, with four of those going to Crystal Palace. Over 3.5 cards has now landed in six of the last seven meetings.

Jan Paul Van Hecke has played his part in the poor disciplinary record between these two sides. He was booked when he faced Crystal Palace earlier this season, and was also sent off at Selhurst Park last campaign after picking up two bookable offences. Even in the reverse fixture at the Amex, he committed two fouls, but was able to survive the full 90 that time. Across his last three appearances against the Eagles, Van Hecke has registered a total of five infringements.

His average of 0.78 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season is nothing to write home about, but he has shown a tendency to raise his intensity in this particular matchup. There has also been a noticeable uptick in his fouls in recent weeks. The Dutchman has landed this selection in nine of his last ten starts, including three fouls against Everton last time out.

This will be Brennan Johnson’s first M23 Derby since completing his move to Crystal Palace at the start of January. The Welshman has shown a tendency to get stuck in for his new club, registering one foul on his debut against Newcastle, before committing four infringements against Aston Villa in the following game.

He is averaging 1.1 fouls per 90 for his new side, which is not too dissimilar from his return of 1.0 fouls per game for Spurs last season, when he was featuring more regularly. Since Ismaila Sarr returned to the starting eleven, Johnson has been shifted over to the left wing. If he starts there again, he could come up against Joel Veltman. The Dutchman is adept at drawing contact and is averaging 1.97 fouls drawn per 90 this season, making this an ideal matchup to target Johnson.

The departure of Marc Guehi has left a notable void at the back for Crystal Palace. Jaydee Canvot was selected to start against Chelsea, but the 19-year-old struggled massively. He made a mistake leading to a goal, before then conceding a penalty, and was then hooked after 65 minutes. The youngster was left on the bench against Nottingham Forest last time out, with Chadi Riad preferred to start instead. 

After joining from Real Betis in summer 2025, Riad made only his second Premier League start for the Eagles last weekend. The Moroccan international has struggled with injuries, and this was his first start of the season. He looked a bit rusty, understandably, and was carded in the first-half for a late foul, but he looks set to start at the back once more. 

Against the tricky Yankuba Minteh, this could be a real test for the centre back, and another cynical challenge could be on the cards.

After securing the AFCON title with Senegal, Ismaila Sarr returned to the first-team picture for Crystal Palace against Chelsea. He landed this selection in that match with a shot on target, registering three attempts in total and looking like Palace’s main outlet in the final third.

He then followed that up by scoring the only goal against Nottingham Forest, albeit from the penalty spot. Jean-Philippe Mateta remains a Crystal Palace player after his January move fell through, but the Frenchman is unavailable to feature this weekend as he has undergone surgery. Sarr should remain on spot-kick duties. 

The 27-year-old now has nine goals in 22 appearances across all competitions this season, which are impressive numbers. He is averaging 2.03 shots per 90 and tends to be accurate with his efforts. Sarr also scored a brace when he last faced Brighton at the Amex, registering five shots with three on target.

Carlos Baleba is another player who has returned to Premier League duties following the conclusion of AFCON, and has come straight back into the starting eleven for Brighton. He was fouled three times against Everton last time out, taking his average to 1.1 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season. 

That figure increases to 1.28 fouls drawn per 90 when playing at the Amex, as Brighton tend to see more of the ball. Baleba has landed this selection in both home games when playing the full 90, and also has an impressive head-to-head record against Crystal Palace. 

The Cameroon international was fouled four times when these sides last met at the Amex, and he drew three free-kicks in the reverse fixture at Selhurst Park last season. The Eagles tend to be aggressive in midfield areas, and Baleba should find duels against both Adam Wharton, who will return from suspension this weekend, and Jefferson Lerma.