This fixture has matured into what is known as the M23 derby. It’s probably the softest ‘derby’ in the Premier League, maybe even Europe, but it has thrown up some entertaining matches in recent seasons as the current crop of players take the rivalry quite seriously.

There were three goals in this fixture last season as Palace ran out 2-1 winners over Brighton in a game that saw three red cards, in an example of how tensions can boil over in this clash. Four of the last five head-to-head meetings between these sides have seen 2+ goals.

Brighton have seen 2+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions and have seen 17 goals across their five away games this term (3.4 per game). Palace can be a bit more moderate when it comes to over-goal tallies, but they’ve seen 2+ goals in each of their last three matches, with their five matches at Selhurst Park producing 13 goals (2.6 per game).

Corners have become a centre piece in the majority of Premier League matches as sides start to treat set pieces as their main opportunities to score in a match. This is certainly true for Palace, who can struggle from open play at times with the lack of a creative core since Eze left the club in the summer.

Palace scored more goals from corners than any other side in the Premier League last season (11). They’ve already scored five goals from set-piece situations this season, representing 35% of their total goal share. Crystal Palace’s matches in the Premier League are averaging 9.50 corners per game, with their matches at Selhurst Park seeing 8.40 corners per game.

Brighton could be a bit vulnerable from Palace set pieces, as they are far from being the biggest side in the league, though they do have threats to benefit from corners themselves, with Lewis Dunk being the main aerial threat.

It may also be worth looking into the shot markets for the aerial threats available here. The likes of Dunk, Guehi, Lacroix, and Richards have all been effective from corner situations so far this season.

Mateta has continued to be effective for Crystal Palace this season and has had a shot on target in four of his last five Premier League starts, with each of these appearances seeing the Palace striker have multiple attempts on target.

He’s scored six Premier League goals this season across his 10 appearances, with only Erling Haaland (13) netting more in the top flight so far this term. He’s had 31 attempts across these appearances (3.20 per 90) with 18 of these efforts finding the target (1.86 per 90). He recently had three shots in Palace’s 3-1 win over Alkmaar in the Conference League, with one of these attempts finding the target.

An interesting statistic when it comes to Mateta is how much more effective he is at home for Crystal Palace. Five of Mateta’s eight goals across all competitions this season have come at Selhurst Park, offering a strong personal record to back him for a shot on target here. Mateta scored against Brighton in this fixture last season and can extend his strong record when it comes to finding the target here.

Minteh has been one of Brighton’s most effective players so far this season, with four goal contributions across his 10 Premier League appearances. He’s won 10 fouls across these matches (1.05 per 90) and is at a decent price to win a foul here in what should be a hotly contested affair.

Minteh can play on both wings and even moves between positions during the game. So we can expect him to be up against Tyrick Mitchell and Daniel Munoz at points during the game. Munoz is more likely to bring him down, having committed 14 fouls across his 10 Premier League appearances this term, with at least one foul in seven of these games, with six matches seeing Munoz commit multiple fouls.

Minteh will also brush shoulders with Yeremy Pino as the first line of defence before engaging with the wingback. Pino has committed 10 fouls across his eight Premier League appearances this season (1.76 per 90).

Sarr netted twice in Palace’s 3-1 win over Alkmaar in the Europa League during the week, picking up man of the match for his performance and taking his goal contribution tally to nine across his 15 appearances in all competitions for the Eagles.

Four of these goal contributions have come across eight appearances in the Premier League (3 goals, 1 assist) with Sarr netting against Liverpool, Aston Villa, and Nottingham Forest in the Premier League, as well as striking twice against Liverpool again in the EFL Cup. Mateta and Sarr have really raised their levels this season in the absence of Eberechi Eze, and both can continue to cause issues here.

Sarr scored twice and registered an assist in Palace’s 3-1 win over Brighton at the Amex Stadium last season, so he has a recent history of hurting the Seagulls, which he can carry into this encounter. Sarr’s recent form should also give him confidence ahead of his highly anticipated encounter.

Lewis Dunk committed two fouls and was shown a yellow card in Palace’s 3-1 win over Brighton at the Amex Stadium last season. He’s received three yellow cards so far this term across his 10 Premier League appearances, with Brighton currently losing their heads more often than most sides in the Premier League, with 24 cautions so far, only second to Bournemouth (25).

This works out to 2.4 cards per game, and that could even be set to increase here when considering the context surrounding this fixture. Brighton received three cards in this fixture last season, including a red card. The referee for this game is Tim Robinson, who is handing out 4.25 cards per game this season and may struggle to keep tensions under control.

Dunk has only committed five fouls across his 10 Premier League appearances this season, so it’s unlikely that he commits multiple fouls to earn his caution here and more likely that one strong challenge, or an instance of dissent, will earn him his card here.

Guehi has scored one goal so far this season, and I’d be amazed if he finished on that tally with the attacking threat he offers from set pieces. He’s had eight shots across his 10 Premier League appearances this season (0.80 per 90). Guehi scored three goals and provided two assists in the Premier League last season while averaging 0.44 shots per 90.

I think Palace’s aerial dominance from set-piece situations could come to the fore here; they’ve already scored five goals from set pieces this season, which represents 35% of their goal share in the Premier League. Palace scored from a corner in their 3-1 win over Brighton at the Amex Stadium last season, with Chalobah benefitting on that occasion.

Guehi had two shots in Palace’s 3-1 win over Alkmaar in the Europa League during the week, with one of these efforts coming from a long throw, which is now another avenue that sides are using regularly to test the opposition. He also picked up an assist in that game, highlighting his effectiveness in the final third.